Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Lasting days contributed most to the variation of ≥ 10 °C accumulated temperature from 1961 to 2010 in China

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Accumulated temperature is an important index in agricultural heat resources and is composed of lasting days and the average temperature of its lasting days by definition. This study compared and analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of the ≥ 10 °C accumulated temperature (AT10), the lasting days of AT10 (N) and the average temperature of the lasting days (\( \overline{T} \)), and later quantitatively evaluated the dominant factor causing the variation of AT10 based on the daily meteorological observation data from 755 stations from 1961 to 2010 in China. We detected that AT10, N and \( \overline{T} \) showed notable increasing trends with an average of 59.18 °C·d/10a, 2.08 d/10a and 0.11 °C/10a, respectively, from 1961 to 2010 in China. The spatial shift of the ≥10 °C accumulated temperature zones (ATZs) was affected by both lasting days zones (LDZs) and the average temperature zones (TZs), but the northern shift of ATZs was more affected by the northern shift of LDZs. Our results also showed that there were regional differences in the dominant factor related to the variation of AT10 in China. There were 62.1% stations where the variation of AT10 was dominated by N, and 14.3% of stations were dominated by \( \overline{T} \). We divided the variation of AT10 into six types based on N and \( \overline{T} \) in China, and different corresponding measures should be taken for different AT10 change types in response to the effects of climate warming on agricultural production.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bai Q, Huo Z, Li S, Du H, He N, Jiang Y (2008) Comparison of accumulated temperature above 10°C before and after the year 1978 in China. Chin J Appl Ecol 19:1810–1816 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Bunting ES (1976) Accumulated temperature and maize development in England. J Agric Sci 87:577–583. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859600033207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang Z, Han F, Zhong S (2010) Changes in duration days and accumulated temperature of 16 plant species phenology in Minqin desert area. Chin J Ecol 29:193–200 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen C, Zhou G, Pang Y (2015) Impacts of climate change on maize and winter wheat yields in China from 1961 to 2010 based on provincial data. J Agric Sci 153:825–836. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859614001154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dahlke BJ, Oplinger ES, Gaska JM, Martinka MJ (1993) Influence of planting date and seeding rate on winter wheat grain yield and yield components. J Prod Agric 6:408–414. https://doi.org/10.2134/jpa1993.0408

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai S, Li H, Luo H, Zhao Y, Zhang K (2015) Changes of annual accumulated temperature over Southern China during 1960–2011. J Geogr Sci 25:1155–1172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-015-1225-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dong J, Liu J, Tao F, Xu X, Wang J (2009) Spatio-temporal changes in annual accumulated temperature in China and the effects on cropping systems, 1980s to 2000. Clim Res 40:37–48. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00823

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao H, Wang Y, Meng Z, Xi L, Duan G, Wen H (2012) Effects of later sowing of winter wheat and later harvest of summer maize cropping system on yield and resources use efficiency of whole-year. J Triticeae Crops 32:1102–1106 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Gong B, Yan D, Tan D, Xiao W, Feng J, Zhao J (2015) Spatial-temporal variation of the starting date and length of seasons in Luan River Basin, China. J Earth Syst Sci 124:807–818. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-015-0578-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hou P, Liu Y, Xie R, Ming B, Ma D, Li S, Mei X (2014) Temporal and spatial variation in accumulated temperature requirements of maize. Field Crop Res 158:55–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2013.12.021

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu S, Mo X, Lin Z (2014) The contribution of climate change to the crop phenology andyield in Haihe River Basin. Geogr Res 33:3–12 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Jing D, Zhou W, Qian H et al (2014) Analysis on the effects of late harvest and planting on year-round yield and economic benefits of rice and wheat. J Triticeae Crops 34:1566–1571 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ju H, Velde MVD, Lin E, Xiong W, Li Y (2013) The impacts of climate change on agricultural production systems in China. Clim Chang 120:313–324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0803-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lan T, Pan J, Jiang D, Dai T, Cao W (2005) Effects of eco-environments and sowing dates on the relationships between grain quality traits in winter wheat. J Triticeae Crops 25:72–78 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Leng G, Tang Q, Rayburg S (2015) Climate change impacts on meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China. Global Planet Change 126:23–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Y, Wang C (2010) Impacts of climate change on crop planting structure in China. Adv Clim Chang Res 6:123–129 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Li J, Gao Y, Chen Y, Chen H, Yang T, Huang J, Jin Z, Peng D (2008) Relationships between farming system and effective accumulated temperature in East China. Chin J Ecol 27:361–368 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Li Q, Li W, Si P, Gao X, Dong W, Jones P, Huang J, Cao L (2010a) Assessment of surface air warming in northeast China, with emphasis on the impacts of urbanization. Theor Appl Climatol 99:469–478. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0155-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li S, Wheeler T, Challinor A, Lin E, Ju H, Xu Y (2010b) The observed relationships between wheat and climate in China. Agric For Meteorol 150:1412–1419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.07.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li J, Jin F, Zhang D, Liang G, Zhang X (2016) Effects of sowing dates on growth stage and yield of maize varieties with different maturity periods. J Agric 6:1–7 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu L, Shi Q, Zhang F (2007) The variation tendency of accumulated temperature in the past 41 years in the north area of Xinjiang. J Arid Land Resour Environ 21:52–56 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu S, Yan D, Weng B, Xing Z, Wang G (2013a) Spatiotemporal evolution of effective accumulated temperature ≥10°C in China in recent 50 years. Arid Zone Res 30:689–696 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu Z, Hubbard KG, Lin X, Yang X (2013b) Negative effects of climate warming on maize yield are reversed by the changing of sowing date and cultivar selection in Northeast China. Glob Chang Biol 19:3481. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12324

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Z, Yang X, Chen F, Wang E (2013c) The effects of past climate change on the northern limits of maize planting in Northeast China. Clim Chang 117:891–902. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0594-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu B, Asseng S, Müller C, Ewert F, Elliott J, Lobell DB, Martre P, Ruane AC, Wallach D, Jones JW, Rosenzweig C, Aggarwal PK, Alderman PD, Anothai J, Basso B, Biernath C, Cammarano D, Challinor A, Deryng D, Sanctis GD, Doltra J, Fereres E, Folberth C, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Hoogenboom G, Hunt LA, Izaurralde RC, Jabloun M, Jones CD, Kersebaum KC, Kimball BA, Koehler AK, Kumar SN, Nendel C, O’Leary GJ, Olesen JE, Ottman MJ, Palosuo T, Prasad PVV, Priesack E, Pugh TAM, Reynolds M, Rezaei EE, Rötter RP, Schmid E, Semenov MA, Shcherbak I, Stehfest E, Stöckle CO, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Thorburn P, Waha K, Wall GW, Wang E, White JW, Wolf J, Zhao Z, Zhu Y (2016) Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nat Clim Chang 6:1130–1136. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333:616–620 http://fse.stanford.edu/

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mao H, Wan H (2000) Study on the change of the accumulated temperature in north China and northeast China. Agric Meteorol 21:1–5 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Mcleod JG, Campbell CA, Dyck FB, Vera CL (1992) Optimum seeding date for winter wheat in southwestern Saskatchewan. Agron J 84:86–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miao Q, Ding Y, Wang Y, Duan C (2009) Impact of climate warming on the distribution of China’s thermal resources. J Nat Resour 24:934–944 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Mirosavljevic M, Przulj N, Momcilovic V, Hristov N, Maksimovic I (2015) Dry matter accumulation and remobilization in winter barley as affected by genotype and sowing date. Genetika 47:751–763. https://doi.org/10.2298/GENSR1502751M

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mishra D, Sahu NC, Sahoo D (2016) Impact of climate change on agricultural production of Odisha (India): a Ricardian analysis. Reg Environ Chang 16:575–584. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0774-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pan X, Zhou W, Zhang J, Wang J (2015) On spatio-temporal changes of accumulated temperature greater than or equal to 10 degrees centigrade in Chongqing and their effects on crop production from 1961 to 2010. J Southwest China Norm Univ (Nat Sci Ed) 40:24–29 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Perilli P, Mitchell LG, Grant CA, Pisante M (2010) Cadmium concentration in durum wheat grain (Triticum turgidum) as influenced by nitrogen rate, seeding date and soil type. J Sci Food Agric 90:813–822. https://doi.org/10.1002/jsfa.3889

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y, Shen Z, Peng S, Li J, Zhou L, Liu H, Ma Y, Ding Y, Friedlingstein P, Liu C, Tan K, Yu Y, Zhang T, Fang J (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467:43–51. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09364

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qian W, Qin A (2006) Spatial-temporal characteristics of temperature variation in China. Meteorog Atmos Phys 93:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0163-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qiao L, Wu L, Zhang G (2015) Temporal and spatial changes of land surface temperature in China in recent 50 years. Bull Soil Water Conserv 35:323–326 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ren G, Xu M, Chu Z, Guo J, Li Q, Liu X, Wang Y (2005) Changes of surface air temperature in China during 1951–2004. Climatic Environ Res 10:717–727 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Spaner D, Todd AG, Mckenzie DB (2000) The effect of seeding date, seeding rate and N fertilization on winter wheat yield and yield components in eastern Newfoundland. Can J Plant Sci 80:703–711. https://doi.org/10.4141/P99-165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao F, Yokozawa M, Liu J, Zhang Z (2008) Climate–crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends. Clim Res 38:83–94. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00771

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao F, Zhang Z, Zhang S, Zhu Z, Shi W (2012) Response of crop yields to climate trends since 1980 in China. Clim Res 54:233–247. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vincent TH (1997) Objectively mapping accumulated temperature for Ireland. Int J Climatol 17:909–927

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang Z, Ma H (2007) Effect of sowing date to the yield and quality of wheat. J Shaanxi Agric Sci 35:36–38 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang H, Yan D, Qin D, Wang J (2005) A study of the spatial shift of 400 mm-rainfall contours in the yellow river basin during recent 50 years. Adv Earth Science 20:649–655 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang H, Yin J, Gu X, Z C (2011) Study on elaborate of the Chinese heat resources over actual terrains. Meteor Mon 37:1283–1291 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang L, Huo Z, Zhang L, Jiang Y, Xiao J, Lu X (2012) Effects of climate change on the occurrence of crop diseases in China. Chin J Ecol 31:1673–1684 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Xiong W, Holman IP, You L, Yang J, Wu W (2013) Impacts of observed growing-season warming trends since 1980 on crop yields in China. Reg Environ Chang 14:7–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0418-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu M, Li Z (2016) Accumulated temperature changes in desert region and surrounding area during 1960–2013: a case study in the Alxa Plateau, Northwest China. Environ Earth Sci 75:1276. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-6084-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yan M, Liu X, Zhang W, Li X, Liu S (2011) Spatio-temporal changes of ≥ 10°C accumulated temperature in northeastern China since 1961. Chin Geogr Sci 21:17–26. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-011-0438-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ye D, Jiang Y, Dong W (2003) The northward shift of climatic belts in China during the last 50 years and the corresponding seasonal responses. Adv Atmos Sci 20:959–967

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yin Y, Deng H, Wu S (2017) Spatial-temporal variations in the thermal growing degree-days and season under climate warming in China during 1960–2011. Int J Biometeorol 1:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1417-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • You L, Rosegrant MW, Wood S, Sun D (2009) Impact of growing season temperature on wheat productivity in China. Agric For Meteorol 149:1009–1014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.12.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang T, Huang Y (2013) Estimating the impacts of warming trends on wheat and maize in China from 1980 to 2008 based on county level data. Int J Climatol 33:699–708. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3463

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang T, Jiang Z, Wassmann R (2010) Responses of rice yields to recent climate change in China: an empirical assessment based on long-term observations at different spatial scales (1981-2005). Agric For Meteorol 150:1128–1137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.04.013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Z, Song X, Tao F, Zhang S, Shi W (2016) Climate trends and crop production in China at county scale, 1980 to 2008. Theor Appl Climatol 123:291–302. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1343-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao C, Piao S, Huang Y, Wang X, Ciais P, Huang M, Zeng Z, Peng S (2016) Field warming experiments shed light on the wheat yield response to temperature in China. Nat Commun 7:13530. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13530

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (projects no. 41330529) and the Climate Change Project of China Meteorological Administration (projects no. CCSF201411).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Jinqin Xu, Xinfa Qiu, Mengxi Li, Xiaochen Zhu & Dandan Wang

  2. Climate Centre of Jiangsu Province, Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing, 210009, China

    Yan Zeng

  3. School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Guoping Shi

  4. Qinghai Meteorological Bureau, Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Science, Xining, 810001, China

    Zhe Wang

  5. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Kentucky, Lexington, 40546, USA

    Xiaochen Zhu

Authors
  1. Jinqin Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Xinfa Qiu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yan Zeng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Mengxi Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Guoping Shi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Zhe Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Xiaochen Zhu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Dandan Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Xinfa Qiu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Xu, J., Qiu, X., Zeng, Y. et al. Lasting days contributed most to the variation of ≥ 10 °C accumulated temperature from 1961 to 2010 in China. Theor Appl Climatol 137, 655–666 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2618-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2618-y

Search

Navigation