Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Trends and projections of climate extremes in the Black Volta River Basin in West Africa

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study used the RClimDex software to examine trends in extreme air temperature and rainfall in the Black Volta River Basin (BVRB) for the present (1981–2010) and future 2051–2080 (late twenty-first century) horizons. The analysis of the future extreme events was conducted using data output of four ensemble models for two IPCC emission scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A bias correction method, the quantile-quantile (Q-Q) transformation technique, was applied to all the modelled temperature and rainfall data set prior to the index calculation. The results of analysis of the present-day climate indicate warming and wetting of the BVRB. Increasing trends were seen in the extreme warm indices while the extreme cold indices showed mostly decreasing trends. Majority of the trends observed in the indices were statistically significant (95% confidence level). The extremes in rainfall also showed increasing trends in amounts and intensity of rainfall events (majority of increasing trends were statistically insignificant). Projected temperatures for the late twenty-first century showed decreasing and increasing trends in the cold and warm indices respectively, suggesting warming during the period. Trend analysis of future rainfall projections mostly showed a mix of positive and negative trends offering no clear indication of the direction of change in majority of the extreme rainfall indices. An increase in extremely wet day events is however projected for the period. The results from this study could inform climate change adaptation strategies targeted at reducing vulnerability and building resilience to extreme weather events in the BVRB.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abatan AA, Abiodun BJ, Lawal KA, Gutowski WJ (2016) Trends in extreme temperature over Nigeria from percentile-based threshold indices. Int J Climatol 36:2527–2540. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abiodun BJ, Lawal KA, Salami AT, Abatan AA (2013) Potential influences of global warming on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria. Reg Environ Chang 13(3):477–491

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson T, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Kumar Kolli R, Revadekar JV, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez Aguirre JL (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res-Atmos 111:D05109

    Google Scholar 

  • Allen MR, Ingram WJ (2002) Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419(6903):224–232

    Google Scholar 

  • Amadou A, Abdouramane G, Seidou O, Seidou Sanda I (2015) Changes to flow regime on the Niger River at Koulikoro under a changing climate. Hydrol Sci J 60(10):1709–1723

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barry B, Obuobie E, Andreini M, Andah W, Pluquet M (2005) The Volta River Basin; comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture, International Water Management Institute

  • Boko M, Niang I, Nyong A, Vogel C, Githeko A, Medany M, Osman-Elasha B, Tabo R, Yanda P (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Chapter 9: Africa. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, UK, Cambridge, pp 433–467

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen S-C, Roads JO, Juang H-MH, Kanamitsu M (1999) Global to regional simulations of California wintertime precipitation. J Geophys Res 104(D24):31,517–31,532. https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JD200043

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Choi G, Collins D, Ren G, Trewin B, Baldi M, Fukuda Y, Afzaal M, Pianmana T, Gomboluudev P, Thi Thanh Huong P, Lias N, Kwon W-T, Boo K-O, Cha Y-M, Zhou Y (2009) Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia-Pacific network region, 1955–2007. Int J Climatol 29(1):1906–1925

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) 2014 The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report: What’s in it for Africa? http://cdkn.org/resource/highlights-africa-ar5/. 14 August 2015.

  • Dosio A, Panitz HJ, Schubert-Frisius M, Lüthi D (2015) Dynamical downscaling of CMIP5 global circulation models over CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM: evaluation over the present climate and analysis of the added value. Clim Dyn 44:2637–2661

  • Durman C, Gregory J, Kassell D, Jones R, Murphy J (2001) A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates. Q J R Meteorol Soc 127:1005–1015. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712757316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Endris HS, Lennard C, Hewitson B, Dosio A, Nikulin G, Panitz H (2015) Teleconnection responses in multi-GCM driven CORDEX RCMs over Eastern Africa. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2734-7

  • Frich P, Alexander LV, Della-Marta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Tank AMGK, Peterson T (2002) Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim Res 19:193–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gbode IE, Akinsanola AA, Ajayi VO (2015) Recent changes of some observed climate extreme events in Kano. International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Volume 2015, Article ID 298046, 6 pages https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/298046.

  • Giorgi F, Jones C and Asrar G (2009). Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. World Meteorology Organ Bulletin Available online at http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/RCD_Projects/CORDEX/CORDEX_giorgi_WMO.pdf., 58, 175–183

  • Hartmann DL, Klein Tank AMG, Rusticucci M, Alexander LV, Brönnimann S, Charabi Y, Dentener FJ, Dlugokencky EJ, Easterling DR, Kaplan A, Soden BJ, Thorne PW, Wild M, Zhai PM (2013) Observations: atmosphere and surface. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York 582 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013. The physical science basis. Headline Statements from the Summary for Policymakers, 2pp

  • Jones C, Giorgi F, Asrar G (2011) The coordinated regional downscaling experiment: CORDEX, an international downscaling link to CMIP5. CLIVAR Exchanges 56(16):34–40

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim J, Waliser DE, Mattmann CA, Goodale CE, Hart AF, Zimdars PA, Crich- ton DJ, Jones C, Nikulin G, Hewitson B, Jack C, Lennard C, Favre A (2014) Evaluation of the CORDEX-Africa multi-RCM hindcast: systematic model errors. Clim Dyn 42:1189–1202 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1751-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klein Tank AMG, Zwiers FW, Zhang X (2009) Guidelines on analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation, Climate data and monitoring WCDMP-No. 72, WMO-TD No. 1500, 56pp

  • Klutse NAB, Sylla MB, Diallo I, Sarr A, Dosio A, Diedhiou A, Kamga A, Lamptey B, Ali A, Gbobaniyi EO, Owusu K, Lennard C, Hewitson B, Nikulin G, Panitz H-J, Bucher M (2014) Daily characteristics of West African summer monsoon precipitation in CORDEX simulations. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1352-3

  • Kruger AC, Sekele SS (2013) Trends in extreme temperature indices in South Africa: 1962–2009. Int J Climatol 33:661–676. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3455

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maraun D (2016) Bias correcting climate change simulations - a critical review. Curr Clim Change Reports. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0050-x

  • Maraun D, Wetterhall F, Ireson AM, Chandler RE, Kendon EJ, Widmann M, Brienen S, Rust HW, Sauter T, Themeßl M, Venema VKC, Chun KP, Goodess CM, Jones RG, Onof C, Vrac M, Thiele-Eich I (2010) Precipitation downscaling under climate change: recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user. Rev Geophys 48:RG3003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marinucci MR, Giorgi F (1992) A 2XCO2 climate change scenario over Europe generated using a limited area model nested in a general circulation model 1. Present-day seasonal climate simulation. J Geophys Res 97(D9):9989–10,009. https://doi.org/10.1029/92JD00615

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mekasha A, Tesfaye K, Duncan AJ (2014) Trends in daily observed temperature and precipitation extremes over three Ethiopian eco-environments. Int J Climatol 34:1990–1999

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JF, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mouhamed L, Traore SB, Alhassane A, Sarr B (2013) Evolution of some observed climate extremes in the West African Sahel. Weather and Climate Extremes 1:19–25

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murphy J (1999) An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate. J Clim 12(8):2256–2284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • New M, Hewitson B, Stephenson DB, Tsiga A, Kruger A, Manhique A, Gomez B, Coelho CAS, Masisi DN, Kululanga E, Mbambalala E, Adesina F, Saleh H, Kanyanga J, Adosi J, Bulane L, Fortunata L, Mdoka ML, Lajoie R (2006) Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and West Africa. J Geophys Res 111:D14102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nikulin G, Jones C, Giorgi F, Asrar G, Büchner M, Cerezo-Mota R, Christensen OB, Déqué M, Fernandez J, Hänsler A et al (2012) Precipitation climatology in an ensemble of CORDEX-Africa regional climate simulations. J Clim 25(18):6057–6078. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00375.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Orlowsky B, Seneviratne SI (2011) Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension. Clim Chang 110:669. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0122-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oyebande L, Odunuga S (2010) Climate change impact on water resources at the transboundary level in West Africa: the cases of the Senegal, Niger and Volta Basins. Open Hydrol J 4:163–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paeth H, Hall NMJ, Gaertner MA, Alonso MD, Moumouni S, Polcher J, Ruti PM, Fink AH, Gosset M, Lebel T, Gaye AT, Rowell DP, Moufouma-Okia W, Jacob D, Rockel B, Giorgi F, Rummukainen M (2011) Progress in regional downscaling of West African precipitation. Atmospheric science letters doi:asl.306., 12, 75–82

  • Panitz HJ, Dosio A, Büchner M, Lüthi D, Keuler K (2014) COSMO-CLM (CCLM) climate simulations over CORDEXAfrica domain: analysis of the ERA-interim driven simulations at 0.44 and 0.22 resolution. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1834-5

  • Peel MC, Finlayson BL, McMahon TA (2007) Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:1633–1644. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1633-2007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pinto I, Lennard C, Tadross M, Hewitson B, Dosio A, Nikulin G, Panitz H-J, Shongwe M (2016) Climatic Change 135(3–4):655–668. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1573-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sarr B (2011) Return of heavy downpours and floods in a context of changing climate. Climate change in the Sahel. A challenge for sustainable development. AGRHYMET Monthly Bulletin, 9-11. htpp://www.agrhymet.ne/PDF/Bulletin%20mensuel/specialChCang.pdf. 2 October 2015.

  • Sarr MA, Seidou O, Tramblay Y, Adlouni S El (2015). Comparison of downscaling methods for mean and extreme precipitation in Senegal. J Hydrol Reg Stud, 4, 369–385

  • Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 2. Future climate projections. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:2473–2493. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor M, Miller H.L (2007). Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

  • Sylla MB, Nikiema PM, Gibba P, Kebe I, Klutse NAB (2016) Climate change over West Africa: recent trends and future projections climate change over West Africa: recent trends and future projections. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31499-0

  • Ta S, Kouadio KY, Ali KE, Toualy E, Aman A, Yoroba F (2016) West Africa extreme rainfall events and large-scale ocean surface and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Atlantic. Advances in meteorology, Hindawi Publishing Corporation ,Article ID 1940456, 14 pp. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/1940456

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Themeßl MJ, Gobiet A, Leuprecht A (2011a) Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of daily precipitation from regional climate models – Jakob Themeßl, Wiley Online Library. Int J Climatol 31:1530–1544

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Themeßl MJ, Gobiet A, Leuprecht A (2011b) Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of daily precipitation from regional climate models. Int J Climatol 31:1531–1544

    Google Scholar 

  • Tschakert P, Sagoe R, Ofori-Darko G, Codjoe SN (2010) Floods in the Sahel: an analysis of anomalies, memory, and anticipatory learning. Climate Change 103(3–4):471–502. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9776-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu Z, Yang Z-L (2015) A new dynamical downscaling approach with GCM bias corrections and spectral nudging. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022958

  • Zhang X, Yang F (2004) RClimdex (1.0) user manual. http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/software.shtml. 4 Jan 2015.

  • Zhang X, Alexander L, Hegerl GC, Jones P, Klein Tank A, Peterson TC, Trewin B, Zwiers FW (2011) Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. WIREs Clim Change 2:851–870

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) for providing the funds for this research through the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL; www.wascal.org). Thanks to Dr. Osumane Seidou of the University of Ottawa, Canada, for providing the CORDEX data used in this study. Our thanks also go to the Meteorological Agencies in Ghana and Burkina Faso for providing the observed meteorological data for the Black Volta Basin.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratoire d’Hydrologie Appliquée, Universite D’Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin

    Fati Aziz

  2. Water Research Institute, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Accra, Ghana

    Emmanuel Obuobie

  3. West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land use (WASCAL), WASCAL Competence Center, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

    Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla

  4. Blackland Research and Extension Center, Texas A & M AgriLife Research, Temple, TX, USA

    Jaehak Jeong

  5. School of Engineering, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada

    Prasad Daggupati

Authors
  1. Fati Aziz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Emmanuel Obuobie
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jaehak Jeong
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Prasad Daggupati
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fati Aziz.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Aziz, F., Obuobie, E., Sylla, M.B. et al. Trends and projections of climate extremes in the Black Volta River Basin in West Africa. Theor Appl Climatol 137, 513–532 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2609-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2609-z

Search

Navigation