Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 136, Issue 3–4, pp 985–1000 | Cite as

Cycles in oceanic teleconnections and global temperature change

  • Knut L. SeipEmail author
  • Øyvind Grøn
Original Paper


Three large ocean currents are represented by proxy time series: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We here show how proxies for the currents interact with each other and with the global temperature anomaly (GTA). Our results are obtained by a novel method, which identifies running average leading–lagging (LL) relations, between paired series. We find common cycle times for a paired series of 6–7 and 25–28 years and identify years when the LL relations switch. Switching occurs with 18.4 ± 14.3-year intervals for the short 6–7-year cycles and with 27 ± 15-year intervals for the 25–28-year cycles. During the period 1940–1950, the LL relations for the long cycles were circular (nomenclature x leads y: x → y): GTA → NAO → SOI → PDO → GTA. However, after 1960, the LL relations become more complex and there are indications that GTA leads to both NAO and PDO. The switching years are related to ocean current tie points and reversals reported in the literature.



We would like to thank the OsloMet-Oslo Metropolitan University for the necessary resources required to complete this paper.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interests.

Supplementary material

704_2018_2533_MOESM1_ESM.docx (3.1 mb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 3205 kb)


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Faculty for Technology, Art and DesignOsloMet-Oslo Metropolitan UniversityOsloNorway

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