Skip to main content

On precipitation monitoring with theoretical statistical distributions

Abstract

A common practice in meteorological drought monitoring is to transform the observed precipitation amounts to the standardised precipitation index (SPI). Though the gamma distribution is usually employed for this purpose, some other distribution may be used, particularly in regions where zero precipitation amounts are recorded frequently. In this study, two distributions are considered alongside with the gamma distribution: the compound Poisson exponential distribution (CPE) and the square root normal distribution (SRN). They are fitted to monthly precipitation amounts measured at 24 stations in Croatia in the 55-year-long period (1961–2015). At five stations, long-term series (1901–2015) are available and they have been used for a more detailed investigation. The accommodation of the theoretical distributions to empirical ones is tested by comparison of the corresponding empirical and theoretical ratios of the skewness and the coefficient of variation. Furthermore, following the common approach to precipitation monitoring (CLIMAT reports), the comparison of the empirical and theoretical quintiles in the two periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2015) is examined. The results from the present study reveal that it would be more appropriate to implement theoretical distributions in such climate reports, since they provide better evaluation for monitoring purposes than the current empirical distribution. Nevertheless, deciding on an optimal theoretical distribution for different climate regimes and for different time periods is not easy to accomplish. With regard to Croatian stations (covering different climate regimes), the CPE or SRN distribution could also be the right choice in the climatological practice, in addition to the gamma distribution.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

References

  1. Alexandersson H (1985) A simple stochastic model of the precipitation process. J Clim Appl Meteorol 24(12):1285–1295

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Brewer MJ, Heim RR (2011) International drought workshop series. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92(7):29–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Cindrić K, Telišman-Prtenjak M, Herceg-Bulić I, Mihajlović D, Pasarić Z (2015) Analysis of the extraordinary 2011/2012 drought in Croatia. Theor Appl Climatol 123:503–522. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1368-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Feller W (1968) An introduction to probability theory and its application. Wiley & Sons, New York

    Google Scholar 

  5. Fu G, Viney NR, Charles SP (2010) Evaluation of various root transformations of daily precipitation amounts fitted with a normal distribution for Australia. Theor Appl Climatol 99:229–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Gajić-Čapka M, Cindrić K, Mihajlović D (2008) Oborina/precipitation. In: Zaninović K (ed) Klimatski atlas Hrvatske/climate atlas of Croatia 1961–1990, 1971–2000. Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia (DHMZ), Zagreb, pp 43–60

    Google Scholar 

  7. Gajić-Čapka M, Cindrić K, Pasarić Z (2014) Trends in precipitation indices in Croatia, 1961–2010. Theor Appl Climatol 121:167–177. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1217-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Guttman N (1999) Accepting the standardized precipitation index: a calculation algorithm. J Am Water Resour Assoc 35:311–322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Hayes MJ, Svoboda MD, Wall N, Widhalm M (2011) The Lincoln declaration on drought indices: universal meteorological drought index recommended. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92(4):485–488

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Juras J (1994) Some common features of probability distributions for precipitation. Theor Appl Climatol 49:69–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Juras J, Cindrić K (2009) Analysis of precipitation quantities within different time intervals. Croatian Waters 69/70:197–352 (in Croatian)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Livada I, Assimakopoulos VD (2007) Spatial and temporal analysis of drought in Greece using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Theor Appl Climatol 89:143–153

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. McKee TB, Doeksen NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration on time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th Conference of Applied Climatology. American Meteorology Society, Anaheim, Boston, pp 179–184

    Google Scholar 

  14. Mihajlović D (2006) Monitoring the 2003–2004 meteorological drought over Pannonian part of Croatia. Int J Climatol 26(15):2213–2225. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1366

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Öztürk A (1981) On the study of a probability distribution for precipitation totals. J Appl Meteorol 20:1499–1505

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Ropelewski CF, Jelickee JB (1983) Estimating the significance of seasonal precipitation amounts using approximations of the inverse gamma function over an extended range. Preprint Eight Conf Probab Statist in Atmos Scien Hot Srings, Arkansas, AMS, pp 125–129

    Google Scholar 

  17. Ropelewski CF, Janowiak JE, Halpert MS (1985) The analysis and display of real time surface climate data. Mon Weather Rev 13:1101–1106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Vicente-Serrano SM, González-Hidalgo JC, de Luis M, Raventós J (2004) Drought patterns in the Mediterranean area: the Valencia region (eastern Spain). Clim Res 26:5–15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Wilks DS (1990) Maximum likelihood estimation for the gamma distribution using data containing zeros. J Clim 3:1495–1501

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Wilks DS (2011) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Elsevier Inc., Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  21. WMO (2007) The role of climatological normals in a changing climate. WCDMP-No. 61, WMO-TD No. 1377, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  22. WMO (2009) Handbook on CLIMAT and CLIMAT TEMP reporting, Geneva. WMO/TD-No. 1188

  23. WMO (2012) In: Svoboda M, Hayes M, Wood D (eds) Standardized precipitation index user guide. WMO-No. 1090, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  24. Zahradníček P, Rasol D, Cindrić K, Štěpánek P (2014) Homogenisation of monthly precipitation series in Croatia. Int J Climatol 34:3671–3682. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3934

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

Two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged for their constructive suggestions and comments.

Funding

This paper has been supported in part by the Croatian Science Foundation under the 2831 (CARE) project and it is a contribution to the Hymex programme.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ksenija Cindrić.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Cindrić, K., Juras, J. & Pasarić, Z. On precipitation monitoring with theoretical statistical distributions. Theor Appl Climatol 136, 145–156 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2477-6

Download citation