Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Northerly wind trends along the Portuguese marine coast since 1950

Theoretical and Applied Climatology volume 137, pages 1–19 (2019)Cite this article

A Correction to this article was published on 24 April 2019

This article has been updated

Abstract

Wind is a marine coastal factor that is little understood but has a strong interaction with biological productivity. In this study, northerly wind trends in three regions of the Portuguese coast (Northwestern: NW, Southwestern: SW, and Southern: S) were analyzed. Two datasets with long-term (ICOADS: 1960–2010) and short-term data (Satellite: 1989–2010) were used to complement one another. The study revealed the northerly wind yearly data to be non-stationary and highly variable between years. Overall, the northerly wind intensity increased throughout the 1960s regardless of the area and dataset. Between 1960 and 2010, the northerly wind increased at a linear rate of 0.24, 0.09, and 0.15 m s-1 per decade in the NW, SW, and S coastal regions, respectively. The rate was higher in recent decades (1988–2009), with the wind intensity increasing by 0.4, 0.3, and 0.3 ms-1 per decade in the NW, SW, and S regions, respectively. Analyses of the sudden shifts showed significant increases in northerly wind intensities after 2003, 2004, and 1998 in the NW, SW, and S coast, respectively. Exceptions were found for autumn (September for short-term data), when a decrease in northerly winds was observed in recent decades, regardless of the area, and for summer, when no changes in wind trends were recorded in the NW and SW. The long-term data also showed a major increase in northerly winds in winter (January and February), which is the recruitment season for many small and medium-sized pelagic fish. The increase in the intensity of the northerly winds over the past two decades and the past half-century occurred at a higher rate than was estimated by the IPCC for the next century.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Change history

  • 24 April 2019

    All figure captions are not accurate. Also, there is a repeated error in most figures because the vertical scales incorrectly show “Wind Strenght” instead of “Wind Strength” and in Fig. 4 (mid-panel) “2003” instead of “2004”.

References

  • Alan L, McGregor J (2008) Seasonal variation of the prevailing wind direction in Britain. Weather 63:365–368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alves JMR, Miranda PMA (2013) Variability of Iberian upwelling implied by ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalyses. Tellus 65:19245

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Andrade C, Pires HO, Taborda R, Freitas MC (2007) Projecting future changes in wave climate and coastal response in Portugal by the end of the 21st century. J Coast Res 50:253–257

    Google Scholar 

  • Atlas R, Hoffman RN, Ardizzone J, Leidner SM, Jusem JC, Smith KD, Gombos D (2011) A cross-calibrated, multiplatform ocean surface wind velocity product for meteorological and oceanographic applications. Bull Am Met Soc 92:157–174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bakun A (1990) Global climate change and intensification of coastal ocean upwelling. Science 247(4939):198–201. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.247.4939.198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baptista V, Leitão F (2014) Commercial catch rates of the clam Spisula solida reflect local environmental coastal conditions. J Mar Syst 130:79–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barton ED, Field DB, Roy C (2013) Canary current upwelling: more or less? Prog Oceanogr 116:167–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2013.07.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bettencourt A, Bricker SB, Ferreira JG, Franco A, Marques JC, Melo JJ, Nobre A, Ramos L, Reis CS, Salas F, Silva MC, Simas T, Wolff W (2004) Typology and reference conditions for Portuguese Transitional and Coastal Waters Development of guidelines for the application of the European Union Water Framework Directive. Instituto da Agua (INAG) – Institute of Marine Science (IMAR), Lisbon

  • Borges MF, Santos AMP, Crato N, Mendes H, Mota B (2003) Sardine regime shifts off Portugal: a time series analysis of catches and wind conditions. Sci Mar 67(1):235–244

    Google Scholar 

  • Caires S, Sterl A (2004) 100-year return value estimates for ocean wind speed and significant wave height from the ERA-40 data. J Clim 18:1032–1048

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carvalho D, Rocha A, Gómez-Gesteira M, Alvarez I, Santos SC (2013) Comparison between CCMP, QuikSCAT and buoy winds along the Iberian Peninsula coast. Remote Sens Environ 137:173–183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Challis RE, Kitney RI (1991) Biomedical signal processing (in four parts). Part 1 time domain methods. Med Biol Eng Comput 29(1):1–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chícharo MA, Esteves E, Santos AMP, Santos A, Peliz Á, Ré P (2003) Are sardine larvae caught during a winter upwelling event off northern Portugal starving? An approach using RNA/DNA ratios. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 257:303–309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chidean ML, Caamaño AJ, Ramiro-Bargueño J, Casanova-Mateo C, Salcedo-Sanz S (2018) Spatio-temporal analysis of wind resource in the Iberian Peninsula with data-coupled clustering. Renew Sust Energ Rev 81:2684–2694

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cleveland WS (1979) Robust locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots. J Am Stat Assoc 74:829–836

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cunha ME (2001) Physical control of biological processes in a coastal upwelling system: comparison of the effects of coastal topography, river run-off and physical oceanography in the northern and southern parts of western Portuguese coastal waters. University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal, PhD dissertation

    Google Scholar 

  • Cury P, Roy C (1989) Optimal environmental window and pelagic fish recruitment success in upwelling areas. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 46:670–680

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cushing DH (1975) Marine ecology and fisheries. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Fiúza AFG (1983) Upwelling patterns off Portugal. In: Suess E, Thiede J (eds) Coastal upwelling: its sediment record, part A. plenum, New York, pp 85–98

  • Fiúza AFG, Macedo ME, Guerreiro MR (1982) Climatological space and time variation of the Portuguese coastal upwelling. Oceanol Acta 5:31–40

    Google Scholar 

  • Folland CK, Knight J, Linderholm HW, Fereday D, Ineson S, Hurrell JW (2009) The summer North Atlantic oscillation: past, present, and future. J Clim 22:1082−1103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Freeman E, Woodruff SD, Worley SJ, Lubker SJ, Kent EC, Angel WE, Berry DI, Brohan P, Eastman R, Gates L, Gloeden W, Ji Z, Lawrimore J, Rayner NA, Rosenhagen G, Smith SR (2016) ICOADS release 3.0: a major update to the historical marine climate record. Int J Climatol 37:2211–2232. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4775

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frouin R, Fiúza AFG, Ambar I, Boyd TJ (1990) Observations of a poleward surface current off the coasts of Portugal and Spain during winter. J Geophys Res 95:679–691

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • García-Bustamante E, González-Rouco JF, Navarro J, Xoplaki E, Jiménez PA, Montávez JP (2012) North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and surface wind in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula: uncertainty and long term downscaled variability. Clim Dyn 38:141–160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • García-Lafuente J, Ruiz J (2007) The Gulf of Cádiz pelagic ecosystem: a review. Prog Oceanogr 74:228–251

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haynes R, Barton ED (1990) A poleward flow along the Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula. J Geophys Res 95:11425–11442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houde E (2008) Emerging from Hjort’s shadow. J Northwest Atlantic Fish Sci 41:53–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huber PJ (2005) Robust estimation of a location parameter. Annals Math Stat 35:73–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jerez S, Trigo RM, Vicente-Serrano SM, Pozo-Vázquez D, Lorente-Plazas R, Lorenzo-Lacruz J, Santos-Alamillos F, Montávez JP (2013) The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on renewable energy resources in southwestern Europe. J Appl Meteor Climatol 52:2204–2225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leitão F (2015a) Landing profiles of Portuguese fisheries: assessing the state of stocks. Fish Manag Ecol 22(2):152–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leitão F (2015b) Time series analyses reveal environmental and fisheries controls on Atlantic horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus) catch rates. Cont Shelf Res 111(B):342–352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leitão F, Alms V, Erzini K (2014) A multi-model approach to evaluate the role of environmental variability and fishing pressure in sardine fisheries. J Mar Syst 139:128–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leitão F, Baptista V, Teodósio MA, Hughes SJ, Vieira V, Chícharo L (2016) The role of environmental and fisheries multi-controls in white seabream (Diplodus sargus) artisanal fisheries in Portuguese coast. Reg Environ Chang 16:163–176

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levins R (1966) The strategy of model building in population biology. Am Sci 54(4):421–431

    Google Scholar 

  • Lorente-Plazas R, Montávez JP, Jerez S, Gómez-Navarro JJ, Jiménez-Guerrero P, Jiménez PA (2015a) A 49 year hindcast of surface winds over the Iberian Peninsula. Int J Climatol 35:3007–3023

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lorente-Plazas R, Montávez JP, Jiménez PA, Jerez S, Gómez-Navarro JJ, García-Valero JA, Jiménez-Guerrero P (2015b) Characterization of surface winds over the Iberian Peninsula. Int J Climatol 35:1007–1026

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miranda PM.A, Valente MA, Tomé AR, Trigo R, Coelho MFES., Aguiar A, and Eduardo BA 2006. O clima de Portugal nos séculos XX e XXI. In Alterações Climáticas em Portugal: Cenários, Impactos e Medidas de Adaptação, pp. 45-113. Ed. by F. D. Santos, and P. Miranda. Projecto SIAM II, Publicações Gravida, Lisboa, Portugal, 454 pp.

  • O’Brien TD, Li WKW, Morán XAG. (Eds). (2012) ICES phytoplankton and microbial plankton status report 2009/2010. ICES Cooperative Research Report No. 313. 196 pp

  • Peterman RM, Bradford MJ (1987) Wind speed and mortality rate of a marine fish, the northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax). Science 235:354–356

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Powell M, Dodge P, Black M (1991) The landfall of hurricane Hugo in the Carolinas-surface wind distribution. Sea Forecast 6(3):379–399

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reis C, Lemos RT, Alagador D (2006) Pescas. In: Santos FD, Miranda P (eds) Alterações Climáticas em Portugal: Cenários, Impactos e Medidas de Adaptação., Projecto SIAM II. Publicações Gravida, Lisboa, pp 345–384

    Google Scholar 

  • Relvas P, Barton ED, Dubert J, Oliveira PB, Peliz AJ, da Silva JC, Santos AMP (2007) Physical oceanography of the western Iberia ecosystem: latest views and challenges. Prog Oceanogr 74:149–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2007.04.021

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Relvas P, Luís J, Santos AMP (2009a) Importance of the mesoscale in the decadal changes observed in the northern canary upwelling system. Geophys Res Lett 36(22):L22601. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040504

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Relvas P, Luis J, Santos AMP (2009b) The importance of the mesoscale in the decadal changes observed in the Northern Canary upwelling system. Geophys Res Lett 36:L22601

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roberts JJ, Best BD, Dunn DC, Treml EA, Halpin PN (2010) Marine geospatial ecology tools: an integrated framework for ecological geoprocessing with ArcGIS, Python, R, MATLAB, and C++. Environ Model Softw 25(10):1197–1207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodionov SN (2005a) A brief overview of the regime shift detection methods In: Large-scale disturbances (regime shifts) and recovery in aquatic ecosystems: challenges for management toward sustainability, V. Velikova and N. Chipev (Eds.), UNESCO-ROSTE/BAS Workshop on Regime Shifts, 14–16 June 2005, Varna, Bulgaria, 17–24

  • Rodionov SN (2005b) Detecting regime shifts in the mean and variance: methods and specific examples. In: Velikova V, Chipev N (Eds.) Large-scale disturbances (regime shifts) and recovery in aquatic ecosystems: challenges for management toward sustainability, UNESCO-ROSTE/BAS Workshop on Regime Shifts, 14-16 June 2005, Varna, Bulgaria, 68–72

  • Sánchez R, Mason E, Relvas P, da Silva AJ, Peliz AJ (2006) On the inshore circulation in the northern Gulf of Cádiz, southern Portuguese shelf. Deep-Sea Res II 53:1198–1218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sánchez RF, Relvas P, Pires HO (2007) Comparisons of ocean scatterometer and anemometer winds off the southwestern Iberian Peninsula. Cont Shelf Res 27:155–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santos AMP, Borger MF, Groom S (2001) Sardine and horse mackerel recruitment and upwelling off Portugal. ICES J Mar Sci 58:589–596

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santos AMP, Chícharo MA, Santos A, Moita T, Oliveira PB, Peliz Á, Ré P (2007) Physical–biological interactions in the life history of small pelagic fish in the Western Iberia Upwelling Ecosystem. Prog Oceanogr 74(2–3):192–209

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soares PMM, Cardoso RM, Semedo A, Álvaro S, Chinita MJ, Raza R. (2014) Climatology of the Iberia coastal low-level wind jet: weather research forecasting model high-resolution results. Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meterology and Oceonagraphy. Vol. 66, nr. 22377 ISSN 0280–6495

  • Teixeira CM, Gamito R, Leitão F, Murta A, Cabra HN, Erzini K, Costa MJ (2016) Environmental influence on commercial fishery landings of small pelagic fish in Portugal. Reg Environ Chang 16:709–716

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tobin I, Vautard R, Balog I, Bréon F-M, Jerez S, Ruti PM, Thais F, Vrac M, Yiou P (2015) Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections. Clim Chang 128:99–112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trigo RM, Osborn TJ, Corte-Real J (2002) The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on Europe: climate impacts and associated physical mechanisms. Clim Res 20:9–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vila-Concejo A, Ferreiro Ò, Matias A, Dias JMA (2003) The first two years of an inlet: sedimentary dynamics. Cont Shelf Res 23:1425–1445

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodruff SD., Worley S.J., Lubker S.J. Ji Z., Freeman J.E., Berry D.I., Brohan P., Kent E.C., Reynolds R.W., Smith S.R., Wilkinson C. (2011) ICOADS release 2.5: extensions and enhancements to the surface marine meteorological archive. Int J Climatol, 31(7), 951–967

  • Yang W, Zurbenko I (2010) Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Comput Stat 2(1):340–351

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zurbenko IG (1986) The spectral Analysis of Time Series. Elsevier North-Holland, Inc, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Zurbenko I, Porter PS, Rao ST, Ku JY, Gui R, Eskridge RE (1996) Detecting discontinuities in time series of upper-air data: development and demonstration of an adaptive filter technique. J Clim 9(12):3548–3560

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zuur AF, Frywe RJ, Jolliffe IT, Dekker R, Beukema JJ (2003a) Estimating common trends in multivariate time series using dynamic factor analysis. Environmetrics 15:665–668

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zuur AF, Tuck ID, Bailey N (2003b) Dynamic factor analysis to estimate common trends in fisheries time series. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 60:542–552

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zuur AF, Ieno EN, Smith GM (2007) Analysing ecological data. Springer, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

Francisco Leitão (SFRH/BPD/108949/2015) and Vânia Baptista (SFRH/BD/104209/2014) hold scholarships from FCT – Foundation for Science and Technology. This research was partially supported by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through the COMPETE – Operational Competitiveness Programme and national funds through FCT – Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/Multi/04326/2013. This research was supported by CLIMFISH project - A framework for assess vulnerability of coastal fisheries to climate change in Portuguese coast founded by Portugal 2020, n2/SAICT/2017 - SAICT (Projetos de IC&DT).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centro de Ciências do Mar, Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal

    Francisco Leitão, Paulo Relvas, Fernando Cánovas, Vânia Baptista & Alexandra Teodósio

Authors
  1. Francisco Leitão
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Paulo Relvas
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Fernando Cánovas
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Vânia Baptista
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Alexandra Teodósio
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Francisco Leitão.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 310 kb)

ESM 2

(DOCX 30.5 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Leitão, F., Relvas, P., Cánovas, F. et al. Northerly wind trends along the Portuguese marine coast since 1950. Theor Appl Climatol 137, 1–19 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2466-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2466-9

search

Navigation