Skip to main content

Advertisement

Springer Nature Link
Log in

Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration (case study: west and NW of Iran)

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Potential evapotranspiration (ET0) is one of the main elements when computing agricultural irrigation requirements and scheduling. All climatic parameters as well as ET0 are influenced by climate change. The aim of this study is trend analysis of monthly and annual ET0 time series in the west and NW of Iran. Values of ET0 are estimated at 36 selected stations, using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) method. Then, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) method was used to detect trends. The slopes of trend lines are estimated using Sen’s estimator approach. Results showed that about 86%of the monthly ET0 time series had upward trends of which 35.6 and 43% were significant at 0.01 and 0.05 levels, respectively, 47.4% exhibited a significant upward trend at the 10% level. In contrast, less than 0.7% of the whole monthly ET0 time series showed a significant downward trend (α < 0.01). Only 1.1% of the monthly ET0 time series had significant downward trends (α < 0.10). The strongest positive upward trend (significant at the 0.01 level) was detected in August at the Kermanshah station. However, the strongest negative downward trend belonged to the Khodabandeh station. The steepest upward and downward monthly ET0 slopes were observed at Maragheh and Khodabandeh stations. The magnitude of trends for these two stations are estimated as 2.33 and − 2.01 mm/year, respectively. On an annual timescale, above 94% of the stations had upward trend slopes. About 67% of the total stations exhibited significant trends at the 10% level. Very few sites (2.7%) showed downward annual ET0 trends (α < 0.10). At the annual scale, the first three strongest upward trends belonged to the Kermanshah, Urmia, and Tabriz stations, respectively (α < 0.01). It can be concluded that ET0 in the west and NW of Iran have an increasing trend for most of the stations. Therefore, it is important to use water in a prudent manner in this area.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+
from $39.99 /Month
  • Starting from 10 chapters or articles per month
  • Access and download chapters and articles from more than 300k books and 2,500 journals
  • Cancel anytime
View plans

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

Explore related subjects

Discover the latest articles, books and news in related subjects, suggested using machine learning.

References

  • Abtew W, Obeysekera J, Iricanin N (2011) Pan evaporation and potential evapotranspiration trends in South Florida. Hydrol Process 25:958–969

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bandyopadhayay A, Bhadra A, Raghuwanshi NS, Singh R (2009) Temporal trends in estimates of reference evapotranspiration over India. J Hydrol Eng 14(5):508–515

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burrough PA, McDonnell RA (1998) Creating continuous surfaces from point data. In: Burrough PA, Goodchild MF, McDonnell RA, Switzer P, Worboys M (eds) Principles of geographic information systems. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 132–161

    Google Scholar 

  • Croitoru AE, Pitcar A, Dragota CS, Burada DC (2013) Recent changes in reference evapotranspiration in Romania. Glob Planet Chang 111:127–132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daneshvar Vosoughi F, Dinpashoh Y, Aalami MT, Jhajharia D (2013) Trend analysis of groundwater using non-parametric methods (case study: Ardabil plain). Stoch Env Res Risk A 27(6):547–559

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Darshana R, Pandey RP (2013) Analyzing trends in reference evapotranspiration and weather variables in the Tons River Basin in Central India. Stoch Env Res Risk A 27(6):1407–1421

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De la Casa AC, Ovando GG (2016) Variation of reference evapotranspiration in the central region of Argentina between 1941 and 2010. J Hydrol Reg Stud 5:66–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dinpashoh Y (2006) Study of reference crop evapotranspiration in I.R. of Iran. Agric Water Manag 84:123–129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dinpashoh Y, Jhajharia D, Fakheri-Fard A, Singh VP, Kahya E (2011) Trends in reference crop evapotranspiration over Iran. J Hydrol 399:422–433

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dinpashoh Y, Mirabbasi R, Jhajharia D, Zare Abianeh H, Mostafaeipour A (2014) Effect of short-term and long-term persistence on identification of temporal trends. J Hydraul Eng ASCE 19:617–625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dinpashoh Y, Fakheri-Fard A, Hassanpoor MA, Beheshti Vaighan V (2015a) Trend analysis of groundwater quality of Shabestar-Soofian plain. J Irrig Sci Eng 38(1):55–70. https://doi.org/10.22055/jise.2015.11153 (In Persian)

    Google Scholar 

  • Dinpashoh Y, Niazi F, Mofid H (2015b) Trend analysis of meteorological parameters in Tabriz. Geogr Plan 51:145–169 (In Persian)

    Google Scholar 

  • Dinpazhooh Y, Esmaeilpour M (2012) Analyzing long term trend of potential evapotranspiration in the southern parts of the Aras River basin. Geogr Environ Plan 47(3):193–210 (In Persian with English Abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Fan ZX, Thomas A (2012) Spatiotemporal variability of reference evapotranspiration and its contributing climatic factors in Yunnan Province, SW China, 1961–2004. Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0479-4

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Irmak S, Kabenge I, Skaggs KE, Mutiibwa D (2012) Trend and magnitude of changes in climate variables and reference evapotranspiration over 116-yr period in the Platte River Basin, central Nebraska–USA. J Hydrol 420:228–244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jahani B, Dinpashoh Y, Raisi NA (2017) Evaluation and development of empirical models for estimating daily solar radiation. Renew Sust Energ Rev 73:878–891. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.01.124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jhajharia D, Dinpashoh Y, Kahya E, Singh V, Fakheri-Fard A (2012) Trends in reference evapotranspiration in the humid region of Northeast India. Hydrol Process 26:421–435

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall M (1975) Rank correlation methods, 4th edn. Charles Griffin& Co. Ltd, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Ljungqvist FC, Krusic PJ, Sundqvist HS, Zorita E, Brattström G, Frank D (2016) Northern hemisphere hydroclimatic variability over the past twelve centuries. Nature 532(7597):94–98. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17418

  • Liu Q, Yan C, Ju H, Garre S (2017) Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration under a historical and future climate scenario in the Huang-Huai-Hai plain, China. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-2060-6

  • Mann H (1945) Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13(3):245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mirabbasi R, Dinpashoh Y (2010) Trend analysis of streamflow across the North West of Iran in recent three decades. J Water Soil 24(4):757–768 (In Persian with English Abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Mirabbasi R, Dinpashoh Y (2012) Trend analysis of precipitation in northwest of Iran in recent half of the century. Irrig Sci Eng 35(4):59–63 (In Persian with English Abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Moratiel R, Durán J, Snyder R (2010) Responses of reference evapotranspiration to changes in atmospheric humidity and air temperature in Spain. Clim Res 44:27–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mosaedi A, Ghabaei Sough M, Sadeghi SH, Mooshakhian Y, Bannayan M (2016) Sensitivity analysis of monthly reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran: a qualitative approach. Theor Appl Climatol 128:857–873. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1740-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nouri M, Homaee M, Bannayan M (2017) Quantitative trend, sensitivity and contribution analysis of reference evapotranspiration in some arid environments under climate change. Water Resour Manag 31:2207–2224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Novotny EV, Stefan HG (2007) Stream flow in Minnesota: Indicator of climate change. J Hydrol 334:319–333

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peng S, Ding Y, Wen Z, Chen Y, Cao Y, Ren J (2017) Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau of China during 2011–2100. Agric For Meteorol 233:183–194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodriguez J, Weatherhead EK, Knox JW, Camacho E (2007) Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements in the Guadalquivir river basin in Spain. Reg Environ Chang 7:149–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Salehi Bavil S, Zeinalzadeh K, Hessari B (2017) The changes in the frequency of daily precipitation in Urmia Lake basin. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2177-7

  • Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficients based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Setianto A, Triandini T (2013) Comparison of kriging and inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation methods in lineament extraction and analysis. J SE Asian Appl Geol 5(1):21–29

    Google Scholar 

  • Shadmani M, Marofi S, Roknian M (2012) Trend analysis in reference evapotranspiration using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests in arid regions of Iran. Water Resour Manag 26:211–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shan N, Shi Z, Yang X, Gao J, Ca D (2015) Spatiotemporal trends of reference evapotranspiration and its driving factors in the Beijing-Tianjin sand source project region, China. Agric For Meteorol 200:322–333

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharifi A, Dinpashoh Y (2014) Sensitivity analysis of the penman-Monteith reference crop evapotranspiration to climatic variables in Iran. Water Resour Manag 28:5465–5476

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi Z, Xu L, Yang X, Guo H, Dong L, Song A, Zhang X, Shan N (2016) Trends in reference evapotranspiration and its attribution over the past 50 years in the Loess Plateau, China: implications for ecological projects and agricultural production. Stoch Env Res Risk A. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1203-5

  • Song X, Zhu K, Lu F, Xiao W (2017) Spatial and temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration under climate change: a case study in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China. Available Online 6 January 2017, nh2017039. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.039

  • Sun S, Chen H, Sun G, Hua W (2017) Attributing the changes in reference evapotranspiration in Southwest China using a new separation method. J Hydrometeorol 18:777–798. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0118.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Marofi S, Aeini A, Hosseinzadeh P, Mohammadi K (2011) Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the western half of Iran. Agric For Meteorol 151:128–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao XE, Chen H, Xu C, Hou YK, Jie MX (2015) Analysis and prediction of reference evapotranspiration with climate change in Xiangjiang River Basin, China. Water Sci Eng 8(4):273–281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang W, Shao Q, Peng S, Xing W, Yang T, Luo Y, Yong B, Xu J (2012) Reference evapotranspiration change and the causes across the Yellow River Basin during 1957–2008 and their spatial and seasonal differences. Water Resour Res 48:W05530

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang X, Liu H, Zhang L, Zhang R (2014) Climate change trend and its effects on reference evapotranspiration at Linhe Station, Hetao Irrigation District. Water Sci Eng 7(3):250–266

    Google Scholar 

  • Yadav S, Deb P, Kumar S, Pandey V, Pandey PK (2016) Trends in major and minor meteorological variables and their influence on reference evapotranspiration for mid Himalayan region at east Sikkim, India. J Mt Sci 13(2):302–315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yao N, Li Y, Sun C (2016) Effects of changing climate on reference crop evapotranspiration over 1961–2013 in Xinjiang, China. Theor Appl Climatol 131:349–362. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1977-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang D, Liu X, Hong H (2013) Assessing the effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in China. Stoch Env Res Risk A 27:1871–1881. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0723-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang C, Shen Y, Liu F, Meng L (2016) Changes in reference evapotranspiration over an agricultural region in the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau, China. Theor Appl Climatol 123(1–2):107–115. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1335-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to acknowledge the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorology Office (IRIMO) for providing weather data needed for this study. Also, we appreciate the Editor and the anonymous reviewer for their critical comments which improved the manuscript considerably.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

    Y. Dinpashoh

  2. Department of Climatology, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

    S. Jahanbakhsh-Asl & A. A. Rasouli

  3. Water and Climatology, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

    M. Foroughi

  4. Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A and M University, Scoates Hall, 2117 TAMU, College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA

    V. P. Singh

  5. Zachry Dept of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, Scoates Hall, 2117 TAMU, College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA

    V. P. Singh

Authors
  1. Y. Dinpashoh
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  2. S. Jahanbakhsh-Asl
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  3. A. A. Rasouli
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  4. M. Foroughi
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  5. V. P. Singh
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Y. Dinpashoh.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Dinpashoh, Y., Jahanbakhsh-Asl, S., Rasouli, A.A. et al. Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration (case study: west and NW of Iran). Theor Appl Climatol 136, 185–201 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2462-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2462-0

Profiles

  1. Y. Dinpashoh View author profile