Abstract
Using daily and monthly precipitation data collected from 520 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2013, we compared a widely used drought index, the standardized precipitation index (SPI), with an extreme index, the maximum consecutive dry days index (CDD). Two other homogeneity test methods, namely the Gini coefficient (including both Total-Gini and Wet-Gini) and the precipitation concentration degree (PCD) were also applied to indirectly estimate extreme droughts. The changes in droughts determined using the SPI and the CDD exhibited similar spatial and temporal patterns throughout most parts of China, with the exception of Southwestern China. Comparison of the five indices indicated that Wet-Gini exhibited different or even opposite trends of drought across all of China. Finally, a trend analysis from 2000 to 2013 was applied to perform a regional empirical analysis of a classic extreme drought event in Southwestern China. All indices, except for Wet-Gini, indicated increasing drought risk.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Chou C, Chen CA, Tan PH, Chen KT (2012) Mechanisms for global warming impacts on precipitation frequency and intensity. J Clim 25(9):3291–3306. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00239.1
Duan Y, Ma Z, Yang Q (2016) Characteristics of consecutive dry days variations in China. Theor Appl Climatol:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1984-6
Guan Y, Zheng F, Zhang X, Wang B (2016) Trends and variability of daily precipitation and extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River basin, China. Int J Climatol 124:79–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.008
Heim RR (2002) A review of twentieth–century drought indices used in the United States. B Am Meteorol Soc 83(8):1149–1165
Hirschi M, Seneviratne SI, Alexandrov V, Boberg F, Boroneant C, Christensen OB, Stepanek P (2011) Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nat Geosci 4(1):17–21. https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1032
Hsu P, Li T, Luo J, Murakami H, Kitoh A, Zhao M (2012) Increase of global monsoon area and precipitation under global warming: a robust signal? Geophys Res Lett 39(6):152–158. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051037
Hulme M, Osborn TJ, Johns TC (1998) Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: comparison of observations with hadcm2 simulations. Geophys Res Lett 25(17):3379–3382. https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL02562
Jin D, Guan Z, Tang W (2013) The extreme drought event during winter-spring of 2011 in east china: combined influences of teleconnection in midhigh latitudes and thermal forcing in maritime continent region. J Clim 26(20):8210–8222. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00652.1
Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods, 202 pp. Oxford Univ, Press, New York
Kong Q, Ge Q, Zheng J, Xi J (2014) Prolonged dry episodes over northeast china during the period 1961-2012. Theor Appl Climatol 122(3–4):1–9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1320-y
Li X, Jiang F, Li L, Wang G (2011) Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation concentration index, concentration degree and concentration period in Xinjiang, China. Int J Climatol 31(11):1679–1693. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2181
Liu B, Xu M, Henderson M, Qi Y (2005) Observed trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in China, 1960-2000. J Geophys Res 110(D8):211–221. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004864
Liu M, Xu X, Sun AY, Wang K, Liu W, Zhang X (2014) Is southwestern china experiencing more frequent precipitation extremes? Environ Res Lett 9(6):064002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064002
Mann HB (1945) Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied climatology. AMS Boston, MA:179–183
Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391(1):202–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
Nasrollahi N, Aghakouchak A, Cheng L, Damberg L, Phillips TJ, Miao C et al (2015) How well do cmip5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of meteorological droughts? Water Resour Res 51(4):2847–2864. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016318
Orlowsky B, Seneviratne SI (2011) Investigating spatial climate relations using CARTs: an application to persistent hot days in a multimodel ensemble. J Geophys Res 116(D14). https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015188
Orlowsky B, Seneviratne SI (2012) Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension. Clim Chang 110(3–4):669–696
Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological drought. U.S. Department of Commerce weather bureau. Washington DC research paper no. 45
Rajah K, O'Leary T, Turner A, Petrakis G, Leonard M, Westra S (2014) Changes to the temporal distribution of daily precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 41(24):8887–8894. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062156
Ren Z, Zhang M, Wang S, Fang Q, Zhu X, Lei D (2015) Changes in daily extreme precipitation events in South China from 1961 to 2011. J Geogr Sci 25(1):58–68. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-015-1153-3
Sang YF, Singh VP, Gong T, Xu K, Sun F, Liu C, Liu W, Chen R (2016) Precipitation variability and response to changing climatic condition in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, China. J Geophy Res 121(15):8820–8831. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025370
Sheffield J, Wood EF, Roderick ML (2012) Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature 491(7424):435–438. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11575
Shi P, Wu M, Qu S, Jiang P, Qiao X, Chen X, Zhou M, Zhang Z (2015) Spatial distribution and temporal trends in precipitation concentration indices for the southwest china. Water Resour Manag 29(11):3941–3955. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1038-3
Shi W, Yu X, Liao W, Wang Y, Jia B (2013) Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation concentration in the Lancang River basin, China. J Hydrol 495(15):197–207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.05.002
Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 2. Future climate projections. J Geophys Res 118(6):2473–2493. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50188
Song X, Li L, Fu G, Li J, Zhang A, Liu W (2014) Spatial–temporal variations of spring drought based on spring-composite index values for the songnen plain, northeast china. Theor Appl Climatol 116(3):371–384. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0957-2
Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI (2010) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Clim 23(7):1696–1718. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
Wang L, Chen W, Zhou W, Huang G (2015) Understanding and detecting super extreme droughts in southwest china through an integrated approach and index. Q J Ro Meteor Soc 142(694):529–535. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2593
Zarch MAA, Sivakumar B, Sharma A (2015) Droughts in a warming climate: a global assessment of standardized precipitation index (spi) and reconnaissance drought index (rdi). J Hydrol 526:183–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.071
Zhai P, Pan X (2003) Trends in temperature extremes during 1951-1999 in China. Geophys Res Lett 30(17):169–172. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018004
Zhai P, Zhang X, Wan H, Pan X (2005) Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J Clim 18(7):1096–1108. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3318.1
Zhang M, He J, Wang B, Wang S, Li S, Liu W, Ma X (2013) Extreme drought changes in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009. J Geogr Sci 23(1):3–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-013-0989-7
Zhang Q, Gu X, Singh VP, Xu CY, Kong D, Xiao M, Chen X (2015) Homogenization of precipitation and flow regimes across china: changing properties, causes and implications. J Hydrol 530:462–475. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.09.041
Zhao X, Wei H, Liang S, Zhou T, He B, Tang B, Wu D (2015) Responses of natural vegetation to different stages of extreme drought during 2009-2010 in southwestern china. Remote Sens 7(10):14039–14054. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs71014039
Funding
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51479003 and 51279006) and the Special Fund for Research on Public Interests (Grant No. 201401036).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lai, W., Wang, H. & Zhang, J. Comprehensive assessment of drought from 1960 to 2013 in China based on different perspectives. Theor Appl Climatol 134, 585–594 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2294-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2294-3