Advertisement

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 134, Issue 1–2, pp 441–452 | Cite as

Assessing climatic trends of extreme rainfall indices over northeast Bangladesh

  • Md. Abul BasherEmail author
  • Mathew Alexander Stiller-Reeve
  • A. K. M. Saiful Islam
  • Scott Bremer
Original Paper

Abstract

This study analyzes the trends of extreme rainfall indices over northeast Bangladesh for the period of 1984 to 2016 for the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. The research was framed as part of a project co-producing knowledge of climate variability and impacts through collaboration between scientific and local communities in northeast Bangladesh, which found pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall to be most important. With access to a greater number of rainfall stations than previous work in northeast Bangladesh, we investigated trends in extreme rainfall events using the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator. To appraise the quality of the data, we used the Standard Normal Homogeneity and the Pettitt tests to check its homogeneity. Among the seven stations, only Sunamganj was found inhomogeneous, and was not considered for trend analysis. All indices of rainfall extremes showed a decreasing trend in both seasons, with the most significant decrease during the monsoon. Importantly, we saw a decreasing trend in the seasonal total rainfall and consecutive wet days, whereas there was an increasing trend in consecutive dry days. Moreover, we saw a decreasing trend in 1-day maximum rainfall, 5-day maximum rainfall, the intensity of the daily rainfall over 25 mm during the pre-monsoon and 50 mm during monsoon, which together may indicate a future decrease in the magnitude and intensity of flash floods and monsoon floods. If this trend continues, the northeast Bangladesh may suffer from water stress, which could affect the lives and livelihoods of communities living there.

Notes

Acknowledgements

This study has been funded by TRACKS (Transforming Climate Knowledge with and for Society: mobilizing knowledge on climate variability with communities in northeast Bangladesh) project sponsored by the Research Council of Norway.

Supplementary material

704_2017_2285_MOESM1_ESM.docx (4.1 mb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 4192 kb)

References

  1. Ahmed R, Karmakar S (1993) Arrival and withdrawal dates of the summer monsoon in Bangladesh. Int J Climatol 13(7):727–740CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Alexandersson H (1986) A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. J Climatol 6:661–675CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein TAMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Geophys Res : Atmos 111(D5)Google Scholar
  4. Alam MS, Quayum MA, Islam MA (2010) Crop production in the haor areas of Bangladesh: insights from farm level survey. Agriculturists 8(2):88–97Google Scholar
  5. Bartels WL, Furman CA, Diehl DC, Royce FS, Dourte DR, Ortiz BV et al (2013) Warming up to climate change: a participatory approach to engaging with agricultural stakeholders in the Southeast US. Reg Environ Chang 13:S45–S55CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bennett ND, Newham LT, Croke BF, Jakeman AJ (2007) Patching and disaccumulation of rainfall data for hydrological modelling. In Int. Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2007), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc., pp. 2520–2526Google Scholar
  7. Birsan M, Molnar P, Burlando P, Pfaundler M (2005) Stream flow trends in Switzerland. J Hydrol 314:312–329 2005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bremer S, Blanchard A., Mamnun N, Stiller-Reeve M, Haque MM and Tvinnereim E (2017) Narrative as a method for eliciting tacit knowledge of local climate variability in Bangladesh. Sustainability Science. Under reviewGoogle Scholar
  9. Cash DW, Clark WC, Alcock F, Dickson NM, Eckley N, Guston DH et al (2003) Knowledge systems for sustainable development. Proc Natl Acad Sci 100(14):8086–8091CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Cash DW, Borck JC, Patt AG (2006) Countering the loading-dock approach to linking science and decision making: comparative analysis of El Niño/Southern oscillation (ENSO) forecasting systems. Sci Technol Hum Values 31(4):465–494CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Deka RL, Mahanta C, Pathak H, Nath KK, Das S (2013) Trends and fluctuations of rainfall regime in the Brahmaputra and Barak basins of Assam, India. Theor Appl Climatol 114(1–2):61–71CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Das S, Tomar CS, Saha D, Shaw SO, Singh C (2015) Trends in rainfall pattern over north-east India during 1961–2010. Int J Earth Atmos Sci 2:37–48Google Scholar
  13. Dilling L, Lemos MC (2011) Creating usable science: opportunities and constraints for climate knowledge use and their implications for science policy. Glob Environ Chang 21(2):680–689CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Firat M, Dikabas F, Koc AC, Gungor M (2010) Missing data analysis and homogeneity test for Turkish precipitation series. Indian. Acad Sci 35(6):707–720Google Scholar
  15. Frich P, Alexander LV, Della-Marta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Klein TAM, Peterson T (2002) Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim Res 19(3):193–212CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Fu G, Yu J, Yu X, Ouyang R, Zhang Y, Wang P, Liu W, Min L (2013) Temporal variation of extreme rainfall events in China, 1961–2009. J Hydrol 487:48–59CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Hasan GMJ, Alam R, Islam QN, Hossain MS (2012) Frequency structure of major rainfall events in the north-east part of Bangladesh. J Eng Sci Technol 6(2012):690–700Google Scholar
  18. Hegger D, Dieperrink C (2014) Toward successful joint knowledge production for climate change adaptation: lessons from six regional projects in the Netherlands. Ecol Soc 18(2):34CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Janis MJ, Robeson SM (2004) Determining the spatial representativeness of air-temperature records using variogram-nugget time series. Phys Geogr 25(6):513–530CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Jain SK, Kumar V, Saharia M (2013) Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends in northeast India. Int J Climatol 33(4):968–978CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Karmakar S, Khatun A (1995) Variability and probabilistic estimates of rainfall extremes in Bangladesh during the southwest monsoon season. Mausam 46(1):47–56Google Scholar
  22. Karmakar S, Alam MM (2006) Instability of the troposphere associated with thunderstorms/nor’westers over Bangladesh during the premonsoon season. Mausam 57:629–638Google Scholar
  23. Kataoka A, Satomura T (2005) Numerical simulation on the diurnal variation of precipitation over northeastern Bangladesh: a case study of an active period 14-21 June 1995. Sola 1:205–208CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Kendall MG (1975) Rank Correlation Methods. Griffin, LondonGoogle Scholar
  25. Khaliq MN, Ouarda TBMJ (2007) Short communication on the critical values of the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT). Int J Climatol 27:681–687 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Kripalani RH, Inamdar S, Sontakke NA (1996) Rainfall variability over Bangladesh and Nepal: ComparisonGoogle Scholar
  27. Lang DJ, Wiek A, Bergmann M, Stauffacher M, Martens P, Moll P et al (2012) Transdisciplinary research in sustainability science: practice, principles, and challenges. Sustain Sci 7:25–43CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Kumar V, Jain SK, Singh Y (2010) Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrol Sci J–J Sci Hydrol 55(4):484–496CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Kumar V, Jain SK (2011) Trends in rainfall amount and number of rainy days in river basins of India (1951–2004). Hydrol Res 42(4):290–306CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Makhuvha T, Pegram G, Sparks R, Zucchini W (1997) Patching rainfall data using regression methods: 1. Best subset selection, EM and pseudo-EM methods. Theory J Hydrol 198(1–4):289–307.  https://doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1694(96)03285-4 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrics 13:245–259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Masood M, Takeuchi K (2016) Climate change impacts and its implications on future water resource management in the Meghna Basin. Futures 78:1–8CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Meadow AM, Ferguson DB, Guido Z, Horangic A, Owen G (2015) Moving toward the deliberate coproduction of climate science knowledge. Weather Climate Soc 7(2):179–191CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Moeletsi ME, Shabalala ZP, De Nysschen G, Walker S (2016) Evaluation of an inverse distance weighting method for patching daily and dekadal rainfall over the Free State Province, South Africa. Water SA 42(3):466–474CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Mondal A, Kundu S, Mukhopadhyay A (2012) Rainfall trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test: a case study of north-eastern part of cuttack district, Orissa. Int J Geol Earth Environ Sci 2(1)Google Scholar
  36. Moss RH, Meehl GA, Lemos MC, Smith JB, Arnold JR, Arnott JC et al (2013) Hell and high water: practice-relevant adaptation science. Science 8:753Google Scholar
  37. Mirza MQ, Warrick RA, Ericksen NJ, Kenny GJ (1998) Trends and persistence in precipitation in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins. Hydrol Sci J 43(6):845–858CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Murata F, Terao T, Hayashi T, Asada H, Matsumoto J (2008) Relationship between atmospheric conditions at Dhaka, Bangladesh, and rainfall at Cherrapunjee, India. Nat Hazards 44(3):399–410CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Murata F, Terao T, Kiguchi M, Fukushima A, Takahashi K, Hayashi T, Habib A, Bhuyian SH, Choudhury SA (2011) Daytime thermodynamic and airflow structures over northeast Bangladesh during the pre-monsoon season: a case study on 25 April 2010Google Scholar
  40. Naidu CV, Durgalakshmi K, Muni KK, Ramalingeswara RS., Satyanarayana GC, Lakshminarayana P, Malleswara RL (2009) Is summer monsoon rainfall decreasing over India in the global warming era?. J Geophys Res : Atmos 114(D24)Google Scholar
  41. Onoz B, Bayazit M (2012) The power of statistical tests for trend detection. Turk J Eng Environ Sci 27:247–251Google Scholar
  42. Oza M, Kishtawal CM. (2014) Trends in rainfall and temperature patterns over north east India. Earth Sci India 7Google Scholar
  43. Pettitt AN (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change-point detection. Appl Stat 28:126–135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Prokop P, Walanus A (2015) Variation in the orographic extreme rain events over the Meghalaya Hills in northeast India in the two halves of the twentieth century. Theor Appl Climatol 121(1–2):389–399CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Rafiuddin M, Uyeda H, Islam MN (2010) Characteristics of monsoon precipitation systems in and around Bangladesh. Int J Climatol 30(7):1042–1055Google Scholar
  46. Rahman MR, Salehin M, Matsumoto J (1997) Trends of monsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladesh. Bangladesh J Water Resour 14-18:121–138Google Scholar
  47. Reeve MA (2015) Monsoon onset in Bangladesh: reconciling scientific and societal perspectives. PhD thesis, University of Bergen, NorwayGoogle Scholar
  48. Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Shahid S (2011) Trends in extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh. Theor Appl Climatol 104(3–4):489–499CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Sinha A, Kathayat G, Cheng H, Breitenbach SF, Berkelhammer M, Mudelsee M, Biswas J, Edwards RL (2015) Trends and oscillations in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall over the last two millennia. Nat Commun 6Google Scholar
  51. Stiller-Reeve MA, Syed MA, Spengler T, Spinney JA, Hossain R (2015) Complementing scientific monsoon definitions with social perception in Bangladesh. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 2015 Jan 96(1):49–57CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Stiller-Reeve MA, Spengler T, Chu PS (2014) Testing a flexible method to reduce false monsoon onsets. PloS One 9(8):e104386CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Terao T, Islam MN, Murata F, Hayashi T (2008) High temporal and spatial resolution observations of meso-scale features of pre-and mature summer monsoon cloud systems over Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 44(3):341–351CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Visbeck M (2008) From climate assessment to climate services. Nat Geosci 1(2–3):2–3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Wu X, Wang Z, Zhou X, Lai C, Lin W, Chen X (2015) Observed changes in precipitation extremes across 11 basins in China during 1961–2013. Int J Climatol.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4524 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Xia Y, Fabian P, Winterhalter M, Zhao M (2001) Forest climatology: estimation and use of daily climatological data for Bavaria, Germany. Agric For Meteorol 106(2):87–103CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Yamane Y, Hayashi T, Dewan AM, Akter F (2010) Severe local convective storms in Bangladesh: Part II.: Environmental conditions. Atmos Res 95(4):407–418CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Yang L, Villarini G, Smith JA, Tian F, Hu H (2012) Changes in seasonal maximum daily precipitation in China over the period 1961–2006. Int J Climatol 33:1646–1657.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3539 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Zarenistanak M, Dhorde AG, Kripalani RH (2014) Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature series over southwest Iran. Journal of Earth System. Science 123(2):281–295Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Md. Abul Basher
    • 1
    Email author
  • Mathew Alexander Stiller-Reeve
    • 2
  • A. K. M. Saiful Islam
    • 1
  • Scott Bremer
    • 2
  1. 1.Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)DhakaBangladesh
  2. 2.Uni Research ClimateBjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergenNorway

Personalised recommendations