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Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

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Abstract

We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976–2005) and future (2011–2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.

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Acknowledgements

This research work is a part of the doctoral research of the first author and is financially supported by Sarawak Energy Berhad, Malaysia (a state owned electricity utility company in Sarawak). The authors offer many thanks to Mr. Brian Giles (Project Director, Hydropower Development) and Ir. Polycarp HF Wong (Vice President, Hydro Department) of Sarawak Energy Berhad for their motivation and support to conduct this research project. The authors also highly appreciate the comments of Prof. Dr. Amir Azam Khan (UNIMAS) to improve the manuscript. The authors acknowledge the editor-in-chief Prof. Dr. Hartmut Graßl and the anonymous reviewers for their perceptive comments and recommendations that aided to improve the earlier submitted manuscript. The authors also duly acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP5, along with the climate modelling groups for providing the relevant GCMs data. At last, the authors offer gratitude to the Department of Irrigation and Drainage Sarawak, Malaysia, for providing valuable historical precipitation data for the study area.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hydro Department, Sarawak Energy Berhad, 93050, Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia

    Mubasher Hussain

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Petronas, 32610, Seri Iskandar, Perak, Malaysia

    Mubasher Hussain, Khamaruzaman Wan Yusof & Muhammad Raza Ul Mustafa

  3. Bintech Limited, Folkestone, CT20 2PT, Kent, England

    Mubasher Hussain

  4. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes / Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Rashid Mahmood & Shaofeng Jia

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  1. Mubasher Hussain
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Hussain, M., Yusof, K.W., Mustafa, M.R.U. et al. Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests. Theor Appl Climatol 134, 423–440 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2284-5

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