Disparity in rainfall trend and patterns among different regions: analysis of 158 years’ time series of rainfall dataset across India

  • Saurav Saha
  • Debasish Chakraborty
  • Ranjit Kumar Paul
  • Sandipan Samanta
  • S. B. Singh
Original Paper

Abstract

Rainfall anomaly during crop-growing season can have large impact on the agricultural output of a country, especially like India, where two-thirds of the crop land is rain-fed. In such situation, decreased agricultural production not only challenges food security of the country but directly and immediately hits the livelihood of its farming community. In a vast country like India, rainfall or its anomalies hardly follow a specific pattern, rather it is having high variability in spatial domain. This study focused on the trends of national and regional rainfall anomalies (wetness/dryness) along with their interrelationship using time series data of past 158 years. The significant reducing wetness trend (p < 0.05) over north mountainous India was prominent with an increasing trend over southern peninsular India (p < 0.10). However, long-term annual wetness was increasing over entire peninsular India. The results of change point tests indicate that major abrupt changes occurred between early to mid-twentieth century having regional variations. The regional interrelationship was studied using principal component, hierarchical clustering, and pair-wise difference test, which clearly indicated a significantly different pattern in rainfall anomalies for north east India (p = 0.022), north central India (p = 0.022), and north mountainous India (p = 0.011) from that of the all India. Result of this study affirmed high spatial variability in rainfall anomaly and most importantly established the unalike pattern in trends of regional rainfall vis-à-vis national level, ushering towards paradigm shift in rainfall forecast from country scale to regional scale for pragmatic planning.

Supplementary material

704_2017_2280_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (197 kb)
ESM 1 (PDF 197 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Saurav Saha
    • 1
  • Debasish Chakraborty
    • 2
  • Ranjit Kumar Paul
    • 3
  • Sandipan Samanta
    • 3
  • S. B. Singh
    • 1
  1. 1.ICAR Research Complex for NEH RegionMizoram CentreKolasibIndia
  2. 2.ICAR Research Complex for NEH RegionUmiamIndia
  3. 3.Division of Statistical GeneticsICAR-Indian Agricultural Statistics Research InstituteNew DelhiIndia

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