The Chao Phraya basin, Thailand, is frequently inundated by flooding during the southwest monsoon period. Most floods coincide with consecutive rainfall days. This study investigated consecutive rainfall days during the southwest monsoon period at 11 stations over northern Thailand, the upstream area of this basin. The Markov chain probability model was used to study the consecutiveness of days with at least 0.1, 10.1, and 35.1 mm of rainfall. The consecutive length of rainfall days from the model showed good agreement with the observed value. A chi-square test of independence was applied to assess the significance of the consecutiveness, and it was found that days with at least 10.1 mm of rainfall tend to be consecutive over the entire area. Moreover, days with at least 35.1 mm of rainfall were found to be consecutive over the joint area where the mountainous region meets the plain area. However, the consecutiveness of days with less than 10.1 mm of rainfall was not obvious. The rainfall amount on days with at least 10.1 mm of rainfall was also calculated and it showed lower values over the mountainous region than over the plain. Hence, this study established the characteristics of consecutive rainfall days over the plain, mountainous region, and joint area.
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The authors are thankful to the Thai Meteorological Department for the rainfall data and to the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute for the information on flooding in Thailand. We are also grateful for the financial support from a Japanese Government Scholarship.
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Klongvessa, P., Lu, M. & Chotpantarat, S. Variations of characteristics of consecutive rainfall days over northern Thailand. Theor Appl Climatol 133, 737–749 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2208-4