Advertisement

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 133, Issue 1–2, pp 579–594 | Cite as

A remarkable climate warming hiatus over Northeast China since 1998

  • Xiubao Sun
  • Guoyu Ren
  • Yuyu Ren
  • Yihe Fang
  • Yulian Liu
  • Xiaoying Xue
  • Panfeng Zhang
Original Paper

Abstract

Characteristics and causes of global warming hiatus (GWH) phenomenon have received much attention in recent years. Monthly mean data of land surface air maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and mean temperature (Tmean) of 118 national stations since 1951 in Northeast China are used in this paper to analyze the changes of land surface air temperature in recent 64 years with an emphasis on the GWH period. The results show that (1) from 1951 to 2014, the warming trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are 0.20, 0.42, and 0.34 °C/decade respectively for the whole area, with the warming rate of Tmin about two times of Tmax, and the upward trend of Tmean obviously higher than mainland China and global averages; (2) in the period 1998–2014, the annual mean temperature consistently exhibits a cooling phenomenon in Northeast China, and the trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are −0.36, −0.14, and −0.28 °C/decade respectively; (3) in the GWH period, seasonal mean cooling mainly occurs in northern winter (DJF) and spring (MAM), but northern summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) still experience a warming, implying that the annual mean temperature decrease is controlled by the remarkable cooling of winter and spring; (4) compared to the global and mainland China averages, the hiatus phenomenon is more evident in Northeast China, and the cooling trends are more obvious in the cold season; (5) the Northeast China cooling trend occurs under the circulation background of the negative phase Arctic Oscillation (AO), and it is also closely related to strengthening of the Siberia High (SH) and the East Asian Trough (EAT), and the stronger East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the GWH period.

Notes

Acknowledgements

This study is financed by the China Natural Science Foundation (CNSF) (Fund No: 41575003) and the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (MOST) (Fund No: GYHY201206012). The authors also thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.

References

  1. Alexander LV, Zhang XB, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res Atmos 111(D5):1042–1063Google Scholar
  2. An WL, Hou SG, Zhang WB, Wu SY, Xu H, Pang HX, Wang YT, Liu YP (2016) Possible recent warming hiatus on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau derived from ice core records. Sci Rep 6. doi: 10.1038/srep32813
  3. Balmaseda MA, Trenberth KE, Källén E (2013) Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content. Geophys Res Lett 40(9):1754–1759CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Harris I, Tett SFB, Jones PD (2006) Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new data set from 1850. J Geophys Res Atmos 111(D12):121–133CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Cao L, Zhu Y, Tang G, Yuan F, Yan Z (2016) Climatic warming in China according to a homogenized data set from 2419 stations. Int J Climatol 36:4384–4392. doi: 10.1002/joc.4639 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Carter B (2006) There is a problem with global warming... it stopped in 1998. Telegraph Newspaper (9 April 2006) (http://go.nature.com/D9CSlh).
  7. Chen S, Chen X, Wei K, Chen W (2014) Vertical tilt structure of EAT and its interannual variation mechanism in boreal winter. Theor Appl Climatol 115(3):667–683CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Chen X, Tung K (2014) Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration. Science 345(6199):897–903CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Clark MP, Serreze MC (2000) Effects of variations in East Asian snow cover on modulating atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific Ocean. J Clim 13(20):3700–3710CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Dong D, Huang G, Qu X, Tao W, Fan G (2015) Temperature trend-altitude relationship in China during 1963–2012. Theor Appl Climatol 122(1–2):285–294CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Ding Y, Liu Y, Liang S, Ma XQ, Zhang Y, Dong SY, Liang P (2014) Interdecadal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and its possible links to global climate change. J Meteorological Res 28(5):693–713 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  12. Golub GH, Reinsch C (1970) Singular value decomposition and least squares solutions. Numer Math 14(5):403–420CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Easterling DR, Wehner MF (2009) Is the climate warming or cooling? Geophys Res Lett 36(8):262–275. doi: 10.1029/2009GL037810 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Fang YH, Zhou F, Zhang YF, Zhao ZQ, Shen QY, Wang YS, Wang CX (2013) The comparison of factors on interannual and interdecadal variations of the winter temperature in Northeast China. Sci Geogr Sin 33(7):844–850 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  15. Franzke CL (2014) Warming trends: nonlinear climate change. Nat Clim Chang 4(6):423–424CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Fyfe JC, Gillett NP (2014) Recent observed and simulated warming. Nat Clim Chang 4(3):150–151CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Fyfe JC, Meehl GA, England MH, Mann ME, Santer BD, Flato GM, Hawkins E, Gillett NP, Xie SP, Yu K (2016) Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown. Nat Clim Chang 6(3):224–228CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Gong DY, Wang SW, Zhu JH (2001) East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 28(10):2073–2076CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, Lo K, Lea DW, Medina-Elizade M (2006) Global temperature change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 103(39):14288–14293CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Hansen J, Sato M, Kharecha P, Schuckmann KV (2011) Earth’s energy imbalance and implications. Atmos Chem Phys 11(24):13421–13449CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Huang XM, Guan ZY, Dai ZJ, Mei HX (2013) A further look at the interannual variations of East Asian trough intensity and their impacts on winter climate of China. Acta Meteorol Sin 71(3):416–428Google Scholar
  22. IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, p 1535. doi: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324 Google Scholar
  23. Jin ZQ, Ge DK, Shi CL, Gao LZ (2002) Several strategies of food crop production in the Northeast China Plain for adaptation to global climate change: a modeling study. Acta Agron Sin 28(1):24–31 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  24. Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Briffa KR, Folland CK, Horton EB, Alexander LV, Parker DE, Rayner NA (2001) Adjusting for sampling density in grid box land and ocean surface temperature time series. J Geophys Res Atmos 106(D4):3371–3380CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Jones PD, Lister DH, Osborn TJ et al (2012) Hemispheric and large-scale land-surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2010. J Geophys Res 16(2):206–223. doi: 10.1029/2011JD017139 Google Scholar
  26. Kerr RA (2009) What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit. Science 326(5949):28–29CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Kosaka Y, Xie SP (2013) Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 501(7467):403–407CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Karl TR, Arguez A, Huang B, Lawrimore JH, Mcmahon JR, Menne MJ, Peterson TC, Vose RS, Zhang HM (2015) Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus. Science 348(6242):1469–1472CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Lorenz EN (1956) Statistical forecasting program: empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather prediction. Sci Rep 409(2):997–999Google Scholar
  30. Lathauwer LD, Moor BD, Vandewalle J (2000) A multilinear singular value decomposition. Siam J Matrix Analysis Applications 21(4):1253–1278CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Lean JL, Rind DH (2009) How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades? Geophys Res Lett 36(15). doi: 10.1029/2009GL038932
  32. Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333(6042):616–620CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Li JP, Wu ZW (2012) Importance of autumn Arctic sea ice to northern winter snowfall. Proc Natl Acad Sci 109(109):E1898CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Liu Z, Yang X, Chen F, Wang E (2013b) The effects of past climate change on the northern limits of maize planting in Northeast China. Clim Chang 117(4):891–902CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Li JP, Sun C, Jin FF (2013b) NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability. Geophys Res Lett 40(20):5497–5502CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Li WJ, Li Y, Chen LJ, Zhao ZG (2013a) Inter-decadal variability of the relationship between winter temperature in China and its impact factors. J Appl Meteorological Sci 24(4):385–396 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  37. Liu S, Sui B, Tu G, Feng XY (2013a) The East Asian winter monsoon background on the variation of winter air temperature in Northeast China. J Appl Meteorological Sci 25(1):11–21 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  38. Li QX, Yang S, Xu WH, Wang XL, Jones P, Parker D, Zhou L, Feng Y, Gao Y (2015) China experiencing the recent warming hiatus. Geophys Res Lett 42(3):889–898CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Leung YT, Zhou W (2015a) Variation of circulation and East Asian climate associated with anomalous strength and displacement of the EAT. Clim Dyn 45(9–10):1–20Google Scholar
  40. Leung YT, Zhou W (2015b) Vertical structure, physical properties, and energy exchange of the EAT in boreal winter. Clim Dyn 45(5–6):1635–1656CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Leung YT, Cheung HHN, Zhou W (2016) Meridional displacement of the EAT and its response to the ENSO forcing. Clim Dyn:1–18. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3077-8
  42. Meehl GA, Hu A, Arblaster JM, Fasullo J, Trenberth KE (2013) Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. J Clim 26(18):7298–7310CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Qiao SB, Feng GL (2016) Impact of the December North Atlantic Oscillation on the following February EAT. J Geophys Res Atmos 121. doi: 10.1002/2016JD025007
  44. Ren GY, Ding YH, Zhao ZC, Zheng JY, Wu TW, Tang GL, Xu Y(2012) Recent progress in studies of climate change in China. Adv Atmos Sci 29(5):958–977Google Scholar
  45. Ren GY, Guo J, Xu MZ, Chu ZY, Zhang LN, Zou XK, Li QX, Liu XN (2005) Climate changes of mainland china over the past half century. J Meteorological Res 63(6):942–956  (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  46. Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63(324):1379–1389CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Solomon S, Rosenlof KH, Portmann RW, Daniel JS, Davis SM, Sanford TJ, Plattner G (2010) Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming. Science 327(5970):1219–1223CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Solomon S, Daniel JS, Neely RR, Vernier J, Dutton EG, Thomason LW (2011) The persistently variable “background” stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change. Science 333(6044):866–870CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Sun C, Li JP (2012) Analysis of anomalously low surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere during 2009/2010 winter. Clim Environ Res 17(3):259–273 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  50. Santer BD, Bonfils C, Painter JF, Zelinka MD, Mears C, Solomon S, Schmidt GA, Fyfe JC, Cole JN, Nazarenko L (2014) Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nat Geosci 7(3):185–189CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Seneviratne SI, Donat MG, Mueller B, Alexander LV (2014) No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes. Nat Clim Chang 4(3):161–163CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Sun C, Li JP, Jin FF (2015) A delayed oscillator model for the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO. Clim Dyn 45:2083–2099. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2459-z CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Sun Y, Zhang XB, Ren GY, Zwiers FW, Hu T (2016) Contribution of urbanization to warming in China. Nat Clim Chang. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2956
  54. Sun XB, Ren GY, Xu WH, Li QX, Ren YY (2017) Global land-surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset. Sci Bull 62(4):236–238CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (1998) The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys Res Lett 25(9):1297–1300CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Tang HY, Zhai PM, Wang ZY (2005) On change in mean maximum temperature minimum and diurnal range in china during 1951–2002. Clim Environ Res 10(4):728–735 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  57. Tang GL, Luo Y, Huang JB, Wen XY, Zhu YN, Zhao ZC, Wang SW (2012) Continuation of the global warming. Adv Clim Chang Res 8(4):235–242 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  58. Tollefson J (2014) Climate change: the case of the missing heat. Nature 505(7483):276–278CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT, Balmaseda MA (2014a) Earth’s energy imbalance. J Clim 27(9):3129–3144CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT, Branstator G, Phillips AS (2014b) Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming. Nat Clim Chang 4(10):911–916CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Wu BY, Wang J (2002) Winter arctic oscillation, siberian high an East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 29:1897. doi: 10.1029/2002GL015373 Google Scholar
  62. Wang H, He S (2012) Weakening relationship between East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO after mid-1970s. Chin Sci Bull 57:3535–3540CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Yan L, Liu X (2014) Has climatic warming over the Tibetan Plateau paused or continued in recent years? Journal of Earth. Ocean Atmos Sci 1(1):13–28Google Scholar
  64. Zhu YF, Tan GR, Wang YG (2008) An index of East Asian winter monsoon applied to description the Chinese mainland winter temperature changes. Acta Meteor Sin 66(5):781–788 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  65. Zhou Q, Wen C, Wen Z (2013) Solar cycle modulation of the ENSO impact on the winter climate of East Asia. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(118):5111–5119CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Zhao CY (2016) Characteristics and long-term trend of plant phonology in Northeast China. A Ph.D. thesis of the Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing, China.Google Scholar
  67. Zhao S, Li JP, Sun C (2016) Decadal variability in the occurrence of wintertime haze in central eastern China tied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Sci Rep 6:27424. doi: 10.1038/srep27424 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Xiubao Sun
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Guoyu Ren
    • 2
    • 3
  • Yuyu Ren
    • 3
  • Yihe Fang
    • 4
  • Yulian Liu
    • 5
  • Xiaoying Xue
    • 2
  • Panfeng Zhang
    • 2
  1. 1.College of Atmospheric ScienceNanjing University of Information Science &TechnologyNanjingChina
  2. 2.Department of Atmospheric ScienceSchool of Environmental Studies, China University of GeosciencesWuhanChina
  3. 3.Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological AdministrationBeijingChina
  4. 4.Liaoning Meteorological BureauShenyangChina
  5. 5.Heilongjiang Meteorological BureauHaerbinChina

Personalised recommendations