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Spatiotemporal analysis of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province, China

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Abstract

Droughts are natural disasters that pose significant threats to agricultural production as well as living conditions, and a spatial-temporal difference analysis of agricultural drought risk can help determine the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the drought risk within a region. Moreover, this type of analysis can provide a theoretical basis for the identification, prevention, and mitigation of drought disasters. In this study, the overall dispersion and local aggregation of projection points were based on research by Friedman and Tukey (IEEE Trans on Computer 23:881–890, 1974). In this work, high-dimensional samples were clustered by cluster analysis. The clustering results were represented by the clustering matrix, which determined the local density in the projection index. This method avoids the problem of determining a cutoff radius. An improved projection pursuit model is proposed that combines cluster analysis and the projection pursuit model, which offer advantages for classification and assessment, respectively. The improved model was applied to analyze the agricultural drought risk of 13 cities in Heilongjiang Province over 6 years (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014). The risk of an agricultural drought disaster was characterized by 14 indicators and the following four aspects: hazard, exposure, sensitivity, and resistance capacity. The spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed. The spatial distribution results indicated that Suihua, Qigihar, Daqing, Harbin, and Jiamusi are located in high-risk areas, Daxing’anling and Yichun are located in low-risk areas, and the differences among the regions were primarily caused by the aspects exposure and resistance capacity. The temporal variation results indicated that the risk of agricultural drought in most areas presented an initially increasing and then decreasing trend. A higher value for the exposure aspect increased the risk of drought, whereas a higher value for the resistance capacity aspect reduced the risk of drought. Over the long term, the exposure level of the region presented limited increases, whereas the resistance capacity presented considerable increases. Therefore, the risk of agricultural drought in Heilongjiang Province will continue to exhibit a decreasing trend.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51279031, 51479032, 51579044), the Province Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang (No. E201241), the Yangtze River Scholars Support Program of Colleges and Universities in Heilongjiang Province, the Heilongjiang Province Water Conservancy Science and Technology project (Nos. 201318, 201503), and the Prominent Young Person of Heilongjiang Province (No. JC201402).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Water Conservancy & Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, China

    Wei Pei, Qiang Fu, Dong Liu, Tian-xiao Li, Kun Cheng & Song Cui

  2. Collaborative Innovation Centre of Promote Grain Production in Heilongjiang Province, Harbin, 150030, China

    Qiang Fu

  3. Key Laboratory of Water-saving Agriculture of Regular Institutions of Higher Education in Heilongjiang Province, Harbin, 150030, China

    Qiang Fu

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  1. Wei Pei
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  3. Dong Liu
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Correspondence to Qiang Fu.

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Pei, W., Fu, Q., Liu, D. et al. Spatiotemporal analysis of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province, China. Theor Appl Climatol 133, 151–164 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2182-x

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