Effects of air-sea interaction on extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa over the northern extratropical region
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The contribution of air-sea interaction on the extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa in the northern extratropical region has been analyzed with a coupled model form Beijing Climate Center and its atmospheric components. Under the assumption of the perfect model, the extended-range prediction skill was evaluated by anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), root mean square error (RMSE), and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The coupled model has a better prediction skill than its atmospheric model, especially, the air-sea interaction in July made a greater contribution for the improvement of prediction skill than other months. The prediction skill of the extratropical region in the coupled model reaches 16–18 days in all months, while the atmospheric model reaches 10–11 days in January, April, and July and only 7–8 days in October, indicating that the air-sea interaction can extend the prediction skill of the atmospheric model by about 1 week. The errors of both the coupled model and the atmospheric model reach saturation in about 20 days, suggesting that the predictable range is less than 3 weeks.
KeywordsExtended-range prediction Air-sea interaction Signal-to-noise Ratio
This research was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 41475096), National Basic Research Program of China (grant no. 2013CB430204), Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China (grant no. GYHY201306021), and National Key Technology Support Program (grant no. 2015BAC03B04).
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