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Impact of climate variability on various Rabi crops over Northwest India

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Abstract

The Indian agriculture with its two prominent cropping seasons [summer (Kharif) and winter (Rabi)] is the mainstay of the rural economy. Northwest India (NWI) is an important region for the cultivation of Rabi crops grown during the period from October to April. In the present study, state wise impact analysis is carried out to ascertain the influence of climate indices Nino3.4 region Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and local precipitation, soil moisture, minimum (T min), maximum (T max) and mean (T mean) temperatures on different Rabi crops (wheat, gram, rapeseed–mustard, oilseeds, and total Rabi food grains) over NWI during the years 1966–2011.

To study the impact of climate variability on different Rabi crops, firstly, the influence of technology on the productivity of these crops has been removed by using linear function, as linear trend has noticed in all the time series. Correlation analysis provides an indication of the influence of local precipitation, soil moisture, T min, T max and T mean and some of its potential predictors (Nino3.4 region SST, SOI, AO, and NAO) on the productivity of different Rabi crops. Overall impact analysis indicates that the productivity of different Rabi crops in most of the places of NWI is most likely influenced by variability in local temperatures. Moreover, Nino3.4 region SST (SOI) positively (negatively) affects the productivity of gram, rapeseed–mustard, and total Rabi oilseeds in most of the states. The results of this study are useful in determining the strategies for increasing sustainable production through better agronomic practices.

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Acknowledgements

This research has been conducted as part of the project entitled “Development and Application of Extended Range Forecast System for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture phase-II” at IIT Bhubaneswar sponsored by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Government of India. The authors are thankful to Mr. M. R. Mohanty and S. Kiran Prasad School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Bhubaneswar for providing their support for this study. The authors acknowledge the National Data Center, IMD Pune for providing the gridded precipitation and temperature datasets and climate indices data from UCAR (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/–catalog/climind). We also thankful to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions for improving the quality of the manuscript.

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  1. School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, A2-805, ToshaliBhavan, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Bhubaneswar, Odisha, 751007, India

    M. M. Nageswararao, B. S. Dhekale & U. C. Mohanty

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  1. M. M. Nageswararao
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Nageswararao, M.M., Dhekale, B.S. & Mohanty, U.C. Impact of climate variability on various Rabi crops over Northwest India. Theor Appl Climatol 131, 503–521 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1991-7

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