Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

  • Spyridon Paparrizos
  • Fotios Maris
  • Markus Weiler
  • Andreas Matzarakis
Original Paper

Abstract

Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021–2050 period, while for 2071–2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as “Near-normal”, in terms of drought conditions.

Keywords

Drought analysis Standardized precipitation index IPCC emission scenarios Multi-linear regression Spatial interpolation Greece 

References

  1. Bates BC, Kundzewicz ZW, Wu S, Palutikof JP (2008) Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva: IPCC Secretariat, 210 p.Google Scholar
  2. Bleta A, Nastos P, Matzarakis A (2014) Assessment of bioclimatic conditions on Crete Island, Greece. Reg Environ Chang 14:1967–1981CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Dai A (2013) Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat Clim Chang 3:52–58CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian T (2004) A global data set of palmer drought severity index for 1870-2002: a relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J Hydrometeorol 5:1117–1130CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Dalezios NR, Bartzokas A (1995) Daily precipitation variability in semiarid agricultural regions. Hydrol Sci J 40(5):569–585CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Dalezios RN, Loukas A, Vasiliades L, Liakopoulos E (2000) Severity-duration-frequency analysis of droughts and wet periods in Greece. Hydrol Sci J 45(5):751–769CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Dingman SL (2002) Physical hydrology, 2nd edn. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJGoogle Scholar
  8. Edwards DC, McKee TB (1997) Characteristics of the twentieth century drought in the United States at multiple time scales. Climatology Report N0. 97–2, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, COGoogle Scholar
  9. European Parliament and Council (2000) Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the council of 23 October 2000. Off J Eur Communities L327:1–72Google Scholar
  10. Feidas H, Karagiannidis A, Keppas S, Vaitis M, Kontos T, Zanis P, Melas D, Anadranistakis E (2014) Modeling and mapping temperature and precipitation climate data in Greece using topographical and geographical parameters. Theor Appl Climatol 118:133–146CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Gouvas M, Sakellariou N, Xystrakis F (2009) The relationship between altitude of meteorological stations and average monthly and annual precipitation. Stud Geophys Geod 53(4):557–570CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Gutmann BN (1999) Accepting the standardized precipitation index: a calculation algorithm. Journal of American Water Resources Association 35(2):311–322CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Haan CT (2002) Statistical methods in hydrology, 2nd edn. Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa, 378ppGoogle Scholar
  14. Holman IP (2006) Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge uncertainty, shortcomings, and the way forward? Hydrogeol J 14(5):637–647CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. IPCC (2007) Contribution of working group 1 to the fourth IPCC assessment report. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 996 pGoogle Scholar
  16. IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. An Assessment of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva Switzerland http://ipcc.ch/index/html Google Scholar
  17. Karavitis CA, Alexandris S, Tsesmelis DE, Athanasopoulos G (2011) Application of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Greece. Water 3:787–805CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Kendall MG (1938) A new measure of rank correlation. Biometrika 30:81–93CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Komuscu AU (2001) An analysis of recent drought conditions in Turkey in relation to circulation patterns. Drought Network News 13:2–3Google Scholar
  20. Loukas A, Vasiliades L, Tzabiras J (2008) Climate change effects on drought severity. Adv Geosci 17:23–29CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Maris F, Kitikidou K, Angelidis P, Potouridis S (2013) Kriging interpolation method for estimation of continuous spatial distribution of precipitation in Cyprus. British Journal of Applied Science & Technology 3(4):1286–1300CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Matzarakis A, Nastos P (2011) Analysis of tourism potential for Crete Island, Greece. Global NEST Journal 13(2):141–149Google Scholar
  24. Matzarakis A, Ivanova D, Balafoutis C, Makrogiannis T (2007) Climatology of growing degree days in Greece. Clim Res 34:233–240CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: proceedings of the 8th conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA, U.S.A, pp. 179–184Google Scholar
  26. McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist L (1995) Drought monitoring with multiple scales. In: proceedings of the 9th conference on Applied Climatology, Boston, MA, U.S.A, pp. 233–236Google Scholar
  27. Mimikou MA (2005) Water resources in Greece: present and future. Global NEST Journal, 7(3):313–322Google Scholar
  28. Michaelides S, Pashiardis S (2008) Monitoring drought in Cyprus during the 2007-2008 hydro-meteorological year by using the standardized precipitation index. European Water 23(24):123–131Google Scholar
  29. Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I - A discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology 10(3):282–290Google Scholar
  30. Nastos P, Zerefos C (2007) On extreme daily precipitation totals at Athens, Greece. Adv Geosci 10:59–66CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Nastos P, Zerefos C (2008) Decadal changes in extreme daily precipitation in Greece. Adv Geosci 16:55–62CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Nastos P, Zerefos C (2009) Spatial and temporal variability of consecutive dry and wet days in Greece. Atmos Res 94:616–628CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Nastos P, Politi N, Kapsomenakis J (2013a) Spatial and temporal variability of the aridity index in Greece. Atmos Res 119:140–152CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Nastos P, Kapsomenakis J, Douvis K (2013b) Analysis of precipitation extremes based on satellite and high-resolution gridded data set over Mediterranean basin. Atmos Res 131:46–59CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Palmer W (1965) Meteorological Drought. Research Paper No. 45, U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, 58 p.Google Scholar
  36. Paparrizos S (2016) The effect of climate on the hydrological regime of selected Greek areas with different climate conditions. Ph.D. Thesis, Albert-Ludwigs-University Freiburg.Google Scholar
  37. Paparrizos S, Matzarakis A (2016a) Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected areas with different climate conditions. Meteorog Atmos Phys. doi:10.1007/s00703-016-0475-8 Google Scholar
  38. Paparrizos S, Matzarakis A (2016b) Assessment of future climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of selected Greek areas with different climate conditions. Hydrology Research DOI. doi:10.2166/nh.2016.018 Google Scholar
  39. Paparrizos S, Maris F, Matzarakis A (2014) Estimation and comparison of potential evapotranspiration based on daily and monthly data from Sperchios River valley in Central Greece. Global NEST Journal 16(2):204–217Google Scholar
  40. Paparrizos S, Maris F, Matzarakis A (2016a) Integrated analysis of present and future responses of precipitation over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions. Atmos Res 169:199–208CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Paparrizos S, Maris F, Matzarakis A (2016b) Sensitivity analysis and comparison of various potential evapotranspiration formulae for selected Greek areas with different climate conditions. Theoretical and Applied Climatology DOI. doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1728-z Google Scholar
  42. Paparrizos S, Maris F, Matzarakis A (2016c) Integrated analysis and mapping of aridity over Greek areas with different climate conditions. Global NEST Journal 18(1):131–145Google Scholar
  43. Pashiardis S, Michaelides S (2008) Implementation of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for regional drought assessment: a case study for Cyprus. European Water 23(24):57–65Google Scholar
  44. Peel MC, Finlayson BL, McMahon TA (2007) Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences 11:1633–1644CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Piccarreta M, Capolongo D, Boenzi F (2004) Trend analysis of precipitation and drought in Basilicata from 1923 to 2000 within a southern Italy context. Int J Climatol 24:907–922CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Robock A, Vinnikov K, Srinivasan G, Entin J, Hollinger S, Speranskaya N, Liu S, Namkhai A (2000) The global soil moisture data Bank. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:1281–1299CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Salmi T, Määttä A, Anttila P, Ruoho-Airola T, Amnell T (2002) Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates – the Excel template application MAKESENS. Publications on air quality, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Air Quality Research, No. 31, HelsinkiGoogle Scholar
  48. Saravi M, Safdari A, Malekian A (2009) Intensity-duration-frequency and spatial analysis of droughts using the standardized precipitation index. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 6:1347–1383CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Sheffield J, Andreadis K, Wood E, Lettenmaier D (2009) Global and continental drought in the second half of the twentieth century: severity-area-duration analysis and temporal variability of large-scale events. J Climatol 22:1962–1981CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Tigkas D, Vangelis H, Tsakiris G (2014) DrinC: a software for drought analysis based on drought indices. Earth Science Informatics (In press). doi:10.1007/s12145-014-0178-y Google Scholar
  51. Tsakiris G, Vangelis H (2004) Towards a drought watch system based on spatial SPI. Water Resour Manag 18(1):1–12CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Tsakiris G, Vangelis H (2005) Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration. European Water 9(10):3–11Google Scholar
  53. Vangelis H, Tigkas D, Tsakiris G (2013) The effect of PET method on reconnaissance drought index (RDI) calculation. J Arid Environ 88:130–140CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Vasiliades L, Loukas A, Patsonas G (2009) Evaluation of a statistical downscaling procedure for the estimation of climate change impacts on droughts. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9:879–894CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Vroxidou AE, Grillakis MG, Tsanis K (2013) Drought assessment based on a multi-model precipitation projections for the island of Crete. Earth Science and Climatic Change 4:158Google Scholar
  56. Wang G, Minnis RB, Belant JL, Wax CL (2010) Dry weather induces outbreaks of human West Nile virus infections. BMC Infectious Disease Journal 10(38):1–7Google Scholar
  57. Weghorst K (1996) The reclamation drought index: guidelines and practical applications. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver (CO), p. 6 ppGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Faculty of Environment and Natural ResourcesAlbert-Ludwigs University of FreiburgFreiburgGermany
  2. 2.Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural ResourcesDemocritus University of ThraceOrestiadaGreece
  3. 3.Research Center Human-BiometeorologyGerman Weather ServiceFreiburgGermany

Personalised recommendations