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Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 131, Issue 1–2, pp 121–131 | Cite as

Regional climate assessment of precipitation and temperature in Southern Punjab (Pakistan) using SimCLIM climate model for different temporal scales

  • Asad Amin
  • Wajid NasimEmail author
  • Muhammad Mubeen
  • Saleem Sarwar
  • Peter Urich
  • Ashfaq Ahmad
  • Aftab Wajid
  • Tasneem Khaliq
  • Fahd Rasul
  • Hafiz Mohkum Hammad
  • Muhammad Ishaq Asif Rehmani
  • Hussani Mubarak
  • Nosheen Mirza
  • Abdul Wahid
  • Shakeel Ahamd
  • Shah FahadEmail author
  • Abid Ullah
  • Mohammad Nauman Khan
  • Asif Ameen
  • Amanullah
  • Babar Shahzad
  • Shah Saud
  • Hesham Alharby
  • Syed Tahir Ata-Ul-Karim
  • Muhammad Adnan
  • Faisal Islam
  • Qazi Shoaib Ali
Original Paper

Abstract

Unbalanced climate during the last decades has created spatially alarming and destructive situations in the world. Anomalies in temperature and precipitation enhance the risks for crop production in large agricultural region (especially the Southern Punjab) of Pakistan. Detailed analysis of historic weather data (1980–2011) record helped in creating baseline data to compare with model projection (SimCLIM) for regional level. Ensemble of 40 GCMs used for climatic projections with greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP-4.5, 6.0, 8.5) was selected on the baseline comparison and used for 2025 and 2050 climate projection. Precipitation projected by ensemble and regional weather observatory at baseline showed highly unpredictable nature while both temperature extremes showed 95 % confidence level on a monthly projection. Percentage change in precipitation projected by model with RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5 showed uncertainty 3.3 to 5.6 %, 2.9 to 5.2 %, and 3.6 to 7.9 % for 2025 and 2050, respectively. Percentage change of minimum temperature from base temperature showed that 5.1, 4.7, and 5.8 % for 2025 and 9.0, 8.1, and 12.0 % increase for projection year 2050 with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and maximum temperature 2.7, 2.5, and 3.0 % for 2025 and 4.7, 4.4, and 6.4 % for 2050 will be increased with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Uneven increase in precipitation and asymmetric increase in temperature extremes in future would also increase the risk associated with management of climatic uncertainties. Future climate projection will enable us for better risk management decisions.

Notes

Acknowledgments

The corresponding author (Wajid NASIM) is highly thankful to Government of Australia, for Endeavor Research Award/Fellowship (No. 4915_2015) for The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Sustainable Agriculture, National Research Flagship, Toowoomba-QLD 4350, Australia. Moreover, first author is grateful to the International Global Change Institute (IGCI) Hamilton, New Zealand for providing software (SimCLIM 2013), for providing required climatic dataset for future projections with respect to Southern Punjab, Pakistan. Furthermore, co-authors (Wajid NASIM and Shakeel AHMAD) are thankful to Higher Education Commission (HEC), Pakistan, for partial funding.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Asad Amin
    • 1
  • Wajid Nasim
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
    Email author
  • Muhammad Mubeen
    • 1
  • Saleem Sarwar
    • 4
  • Peter Urich
    • 5
  • Ashfaq Ahmad
    • 6
  • Aftab Wajid
    • 6
  • Tasneem Khaliq
    • 6
  • Fahd Rasul
    • 6
  • Hafiz Mohkum Hammad
    • 1
  • Muhammad Ishaq Asif Rehmani
    • 7
  • Hussani Mubarak
    • 8
    • 9
    • 10
  • Nosheen Mirza
    • 8
    • 9
    • 10
  • Abdul Wahid
    • 11
  • Shakeel Ahamd
    • 12
  • Shah Fahad
    • 13
    Email author
  • Abid Ullah
    • 14
  • Mohammad Nauman Khan
    • 13
  • Asif Ameen
    • 15
  • Amanullah
    • 16
  • Babar Shahzad
    • 17
  • Shah Saud
    • 18
  • Hesham Alharby
    • 19
  • Syed Tahir Ata-Ul-Karim
    • 20
  • Muhammad Adnan
    • 21
  • Faisal Islam
    • 22
  • Qazi Shoaib Ali
    • 23
  1. 1.Department of Environmental SciencesCOMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT)VehariPakistan
  2. 2.CIHEAM-Institute Agronomique Mediterraneen de Montpellier (IAMM)MontpellierFrance
  3. 3.CSIRO Sustainable EcosystemNational Agricultural Research FlagshipToowoombaAustralia
  4. 4.SMEC Consultancy ServicesLahorePakistan
  5. 5.CLIMsystemsFlagstaff HamiltonNew Zealand
  6. 6.Agro-Climatology Laboratory, Department of AgronomyUniversity of AgricultureFaisalabadPakistan
  7. 7.Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agricultural SciencesGhazi UniversityDera Ghazi KhanPakistan
  8. 8.Department of Environmental SciencesCOMSATS Institute of Information TechnologyAbbottabadPakistan
  9. 9.National Engineering Research Center for Control and Treatment of Heavy Metal PollutionChangshaChina
  10. 10.Department of Environmental Engineering, School of Metallurgy and EnvironmentCentral South UniversityChangshaChina
  11. 11.Department of Environmental SciencesBahauddin Zakariya UniversityMultanPakistan
  12. 12.Department of AgronomyBahauddin Zakariya UniversityMultanPakistan
  13. 13.College of Plant Science and TechnologyHuazhong Agricultural UniversityWuhanPeople’s Republic of China
  14. 14.National Key Laboratory of Crop Genetic ImprovementHuazhong Agricultural UniversityWuhanPeople’s Republic of China
  15. 15.College of Agronomy and BiotechnologyChina Agricultural UniversityBeijingChina
  16. 16.Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Crop ProductionThe University of AgriculturePeshawarPakistan
  17. 17.Agricultural UniversityFaisalabadPakistan
  18. 18.Department of HorticultureNortheast Agricultural UniversityHarbinChina
  19. 19.Department of Biological Sciences, Faculty of ScienceKing Abdulaziz UniversityJeddahSaudi Arabia
  20. 20.National Engineering and Technology Center for Information AgricultureNanjing Agricultural UniversityNanjingPeople’s Republic of China
  21. 21.Department of AgricultureUniversity of SwabiSwabiPakistan
  22. 22.Institute of Crop Science and Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Crop GermpalsmZhejiang UniversityHangzhouChina
  23. 23.College of Horticulture and Forestry SciencesHuazhong Agricultural UniversityWuhanPeople’s Republic of China

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