Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 129, Issue 3–4, pp 873–880 | Cite as

Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction

  • Antonello PasiniEmail author
  • Umberto Triacca
  • Alessandro Attanasio
Original Paper


The recent hiatus in global temperature at the surface has been analysed by several studies, mainly using global climate models. The common accepted picture is that since the late 1990s, the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcings has been counterbalanced by other factors, e.g., a decrease in natural forcings, augmented ocean heat storage and negative phases of ocean–atmosphere-coupled oscillation patterns. Here, simple vector autoregressive models are used for forecasting the temperature hiatus in the period 2001–2014. This gives new insight into the problem of understanding the ocean contribution (in terms of heat uptake and atmosphere–ocean-coupled oscillations) to the appearance of this recent hiatus. In particular, considering data about the ocean heat content until a depth of 700 m and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is necessary for correctly forecasting the hiatus, so catching both trend and interannual variability. Our models also show that the ocean heat uptake is substantially driven by the natural component of the total radiative forcing at a decadal time scale, confining the importance of the anthropogenic influences to a longer range warming of the ocean.


Pacific Decadal Oscillation Granger Causality Radiative Forcings Southern Oscillation Index Ocean Heat 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Antonello Pasini
    • 1
    Email author
  • Umberto Triacca
    • 2
  • Alessandro Attanasio
    • 2
  1. 1.CNR, Institute of Atmospheric Pollution ResearchMonterotondo StazioneItaly
  2. 2.Department of Computer Engineering, Computer Science and MathematicsUniversity of L’AquilaL’AquilaItaly

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