Advertisement

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 129, Issue 3–4, pp 873–880 | Cite as

Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction

  • Antonello PasiniEmail author
  • Umberto Triacca
  • Alessandro Attanasio
Original Paper

Abstract

The recent hiatus in global temperature at the surface has been analysed by several studies, mainly using global climate models. The common accepted picture is that since the late 1990s, the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcings has been counterbalanced by other factors, e.g., a decrease in natural forcings, augmented ocean heat storage and negative phases of ocean–atmosphere-coupled oscillation patterns. Here, simple vector autoregressive models are used for forecasting the temperature hiatus in the period 2001–2014. This gives new insight into the problem of understanding the ocean contribution (in terms of heat uptake and atmosphere–ocean-coupled oscillations) to the appearance of this recent hiatus. In particular, considering data about the ocean heat content until a depth of 700 m and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is necessary for correctly forecasting the hiatus, so catching both trend and interannual variability. Our models also show that the ocean heat uptake is substantially driven by the natural component of the total radiative forcing at a decadal time scale, confining the importance of the anthropogenic influences to a longer range warming of the ocean.

Keywords

Pacific Decadal Oscillation Granger Causality Radiative Forcings Southern Oscillation Index Ocean Heat 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

  1. Allan RJ, Nicholls N, Jones PD, Butterworth IJ (1991) A further extension of the Tahiti-Darwin SOI, early SOI results and Darwin pressure. J Clim 4:743–749CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Attanasio A, Pasini A, Triacca U (2012) A contribution to attribution of recent global warming by out-of-sample Granger causality analysis. Atmos Sci Lett 13:67–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bindoff NL, Stott PA, AchutaRao KM, Allen MR, Gillett N, Gutzler D, Hansingo K, Hegerl G, Hu Y, Jain S, Mokhov II, Overland J, Perlwitz J, Sebbari R, Zhang X (2013) Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 867–952Google Scholar
  4. Chen X, Tung K-K (2014) Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration. Science 345:897–903CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Cowtan K, Way RG (2014) Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Q J R Meteorol Soc 140:1935–1944CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. DelSole T, Tippett MK, Shukla J (2011) A significant component of unforced multidecadal variability in the recent acceleration of global warming. J Clim 24:909–926CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Drijfhout SS, Blaker AT, Josey SA, Nurser AJG, Sinha B, Balmaseda MA (2014) Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins. Geophys Res Lett 41:2077–2080CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Enfield DB, Mestas-Nuñez AM, Trimble PJ (2001) The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relationship to rainfall and river flows in the continental US. Geophys Res Lett 28:2077–2080CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. England MH, McGregor S, Spence P, Meehl GA, Timmermann A, Cai W, Gupta AS, McPhaden MJ, Purich A, Santoso A (2014) Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nat Clim Chang 4:222–227CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Goddard L (2014) Heat hide and seek. Nat Clim Chang 4:158–161CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Granger CWJ (1969) Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica 37:424–438CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Guemas V, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Andreu-Burillo I, Asif M (2013) Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade. Nat Clim Chang 3:649–653CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Huber M, Knutti R (2014) Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled. Nat Geosci 7:651–656CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Karl TR, Arguez A, Huang B, Lawrimore JH, McMahon JR, Menne MJ, Peterson TC, Vose RS, Zhang H-M (2015) Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus. Science 348:1469–1472CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Können GP, Jones PD, Kaltofen MH, Allan RJ (1998) Pre-1866 extensions of the southern oscillation index using early Indonesian and Tahitian meteorological readings. J Clim 11:2325–2339CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Kosaka Y, Xie S-P (2013) Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 501:403–407CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Levitus S, Antonov JI, Boyer TP, Baranova OK, Garcia HE, Locarnini RA, Mishonov AV, Reagan JR, Seidov D, Yarosh ES, Zweng MM (2012) World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010. Geophys Res Lett 39, L10603CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Lütkepohl H (2005) New introduction to multiple time series analysis. Springer, New YorkCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Macias D, Stips A, Garcia-Gorriz E (2014) Application of the singular spectrum analysis technique to study the recent hiatus on the global surface temperature record. PLoS ONE 9, e107222CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. McCabe GJ, Palecki MA (2006) Multidecadal climate variability of global lands and oceans. Int J Climatol 26:849–865CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Meehl GA, Teng H, Arblaster JM (2014) Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming. Nat Clim Chang 4:898–902CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Morice CP, Kennedy JJ, Rayner NA, Jones PD (2012) Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 data set. J Geophys Res 117, D08101CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Pasini A, Triacca U, Attanasio A (2012) Evidence of recent causal decoupling between solar radiation and global temperature. Environ Res Lett 7:034020CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Pasini A, Triacca U, Attanasio A (2015) On the role of sulfates in recent global warming: a Granger causality analysis. Int J Clim. doi: 10.1002/joc.4222 Google Scholar
  25. Ridley DA, Solomon S, Barnes JE, Burlakov VD, Deshler T, Dolgii SI, Herber AB, Nagai T, Neely RR III, Nevzorov AV, Ritter C, Sakai T, Santer BD, Sato M, Schmidt A, Uchino O, Vernier JP (2014) Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change. Geophys Res Lett 41:7763–7769CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Ropelewski CF, Jones PD (1987) An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin southern oscillation index. Mon Weather Rev 115:2161–2165CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Schmidt GA, Shindell DT, Tsigaridis K (2014) Reconciling warming trends. Nat Geosci 7:158–160CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Sims CA (1980) Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica 48:1–48CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Smith TM, Reynolds RW (2004) Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854–1997). J Clim 17:2466–2477CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Stern DI, Kaufmann RK (2014) Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change. Clim Chang 122:257–269CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Toda HY, Yamamoto T (1995) Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. J Econ 66:225–250CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT (2013) An apparent hiatus in global warming? Earth’s Future 1:19–32CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Triacca U, Pasini A, Attanasio A, Giovannelli A, Lippi M (2014) Clarifying the roles of greenhouse gases and ENSO in recent global warming through their prediction performance. J Clim 27:7903–7910CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Wiener N (1956) The theory of prediction. In: Beckenbach EF (ed) Modern mathematics for engineers vol 1. McGraw-Hill, New York, ch 8Google Scholar
  35. Yao S-L, Huang G, Wu R-G, Qu X (2015) The global warming hiatus—a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation. Theor Appl Climatol. published online, doi:  10.1007/s00704-014-1358-x
  36. Zeng X, Beljaars A (2005) A prognostic scheme of sea surface skin temperature for modeling and data assimilation. Geophys Res Lett 32, L14605CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Zeng X, Zhao M, Dickinson RE, He Y (1999) A multiyear hourly sea surface skin temperature data set derived from the TOGA TAO bulk temperature and wind speed over the tropical Pacific. J Geophys Res 104:1525–1536CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Antonello Pasini
    • 1
    Email author
  • Umberto Triacca
    • 2
  • Alessandro Attanasio
    • 2
  1. 1.CNR, Institute of Atmospheric Pollution ResearchMonterotondo StazioneItaly
  2. 2.Department of Computer Engineering, Computer Science and MathematicsUniversity of L’AquilaL’AquilaItaly

Personalised recommendations