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Complexity analysis of the air temperature and the precipitation time series in Serbia

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Abstract

In this paper, we have analyzed the time series of daily values for three meteorological elements, two continuous and a discontinuous one, i.e., the maximum and minimum air temperature and the precipitation. The analysis was done based on the observations from seven stations in Serbia from the period 1951–2010. The main aim of this paper was to quantify the complexity of the annual values for the mentioned time series and to calculate the rate of its change. For that purpose, we have used the sample entropy and the Kolmogorov complexity as the measures which can indicate the variability and irregularity of a given time series. Results obtained show that the maximum temperature has increasing trends in the given period which points out a warming, ranged in the interval 1–2 °C. The increasing temperature indicates the higher internal energy of the atmosphere, changing the weather patterns, manifested in the time series. The Kolmogorov complexity of the maximum temperature time series has statistically significant increasing trends, while the sample entropy has increasing but statistically insignificant trend. The trends of complexity measures for the minimum temperature depend on the location. Both complexity measures for the precipitation time series have decreasing trends.

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Acknowledgment

The research presented in this paper was performed as a part of the project “Studying climate change and its influence on the environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation” (No. III 43007), supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia within the framework of integrated and interdisciplinary research over the period 2011–2014. The authors are deeply grateful to the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia for providing us data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Sciences, Department of Physics, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia

    G. Mimić & D. Kapor

  2. Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Field Crops and Vegetable, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia

    D. T. Mihailović

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  1. G. Mimić
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  2. D. T. Mihailović
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  3. D. Kapor
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Correspondence to G. Mimić.

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Mimić, G., Mihailović, D.T. & Kapor, D. Complexity analysis of the air temperature and the precipitation time series in Serbia. Theor Appl Climatol 127, 891–898 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1677-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1677-6

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