Abstract
In the context of regional downscaling, we study the representation of extreme precipitation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, focusing on a major event that occurred on the 8th of June 2007 along the coast of eastern Australia (abbreviated “Newy”). This was one of the strongest extra-tropical low-pressure systems off eastern Australia in the last 30 years and was one of several storms comprising a test bed for the WRF ensemble that underpins the regional climate change projections for eastern Australia (New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling Project, NARCliM). Newy provides an informative case study for examining precipitation extremes as simulated by WRF set up for regional downscaling. Here, simulations from the NARCliM physics ensemble of Newy available at ∼10 km grid spacing are used. Extremes and spatio-temporal characteristics are examined using land-based daily and hourly precipitation totals, with a particular focus on hourly accumulations. Of the different physics schemes assessed, the cumulus and the boundary layer schemes cause the largest differences. Although the Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme produces better rainfall totals over the entire storm, the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme promotes higher and more realistic hourly extreme precipitation totals. Analysis indicates the Kain-Fritsch runs are correlated with larger resolved grid-scale vertical moisture fluxes, which are produced through the influence of parameterized convection on the larger-scale circulation and the subsequent convergence and ascent of moisture. Results show that WRF qualitatively reproduces spatial precipitation patterns during the storm, albeit with some errors in timing. This case study indicates that whilst regional climate simulations of an extreme event such as Newy in WRF may be well represented at daily scales irrespective of the physics scheme used, the representation at hourly scales is likely to be physics scheme dependent.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
See also http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/.
Station verification performed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/.
References
Adler RF, Huffman GJ, Bolvin DT, Curtis S, Nelkin EJ (2000) Tropical rainfall distributions determined using TRMM combined with other satellite and rain gauge information. J Appl Meteor 39:2007–2023
Argueso D, Hidalgo-Munoz JM, Gamiz-Fortis SR, Esteban-Parra MJ, Dudhia J, Castro-Diez Y (2011) Evaluation of WRF parameterizations for climate studies over Southern Spain using a multi-step regionalization. J Climate 24:5633–5651
Betts AK (1986) A new convective adjustment scheme. Part I: observational and theoretical basis. J Atmos Sci 121:255–270
Betts AK, Miller MJ (1986) A new convective adjustment scheme. Part II: single column tests using GATE wave, BOMEX, and arctic air-mass data sets. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 121:693–709
Bukovsky MS, Karoly DJ (2009) The sensitivity of WRF precipitation in nested regional climate simulations. J Appl Metr Clim 48:2152–2159
Collins WD, Rash PJ, Boville BA, Hack JJ, McCaa JR, Williamson DL, Kiehl JT, Briegleb B (2004) Description of the NCAR community atmosphere model (CAM 3.0). NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-464+STR
Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Holm EV, Isaksen L, Kallberg P, Kohler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette JJ, Park BK, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thepaut JN, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 137:553–597. http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/era-interim
Dudhia J (1989) Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. J Atmos Sci 46:3077–3107
Evans JP, Ekström M, Ji F (2012) Evaluating the performance of a WRF physics ensemble over South-East Australia. Clim Dynam 39:1241–1258
Evans JP, Ji F, Lee C, Smith P, Argüeso D, Fita L (2014) A regional climate modelling projection ensemble experiment – NARCliM. Geosci Model Dev 7:621–629
Fiori E, Comellas A, Molini L, Rebora N, Siccardi F, Gochis DJ, Tanelli S, Parodi A (2014) Analysis and hindcast simulations of an extreme rainfall event in the Mediterranean area: the Genoa 2011 case. Atmos Res 138:13–29
Fita L, Fernândez J, Garcia-Diez M (2010) CLWRF: WRF modifications for regional climate simulation under future scenarios. Preprints, 11th WRF Users Event, Boulder, CO, NCAR, P-26
Flaounas E, Bastin S, Janicot S (2011) Regional climate modelling of the 2006 West African monsoon: sensitivity to convection and planetary boundary layer parameterisation using WRF. Clim Dynam 36:1083–1105
Gallus WA Jr, Bresch JF (2006) Comparison of impacts of WRF dynamic core, physics package, and initial conditions on warm season rainfall forecasts. Mon Wea Rev 134:2632–2641
Gallus WA Jr, Segal M (2001) Impact of improved initialization of mesoscale features on convective system rainfall in 10-km Eta simulations. Wea Forecasting 16:680–696
Haberlandt U (2007) Geostatistical interpolation of hourly precipitation from rain gauges and radar for a large-scale extreme rainfall event. J Hydro 332:144–157
Hong SY, Dudhia J, Chen SH (2004) A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation. Mon Wea Rev 132:103–120
Hong SY, Noh Y, Dudhia J (2006) A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes. Mon Wea Rev 134:2318–2341
Jacob D, Petersen J, Eggert B, Alias A, Christensen OB, Bouwer LM, Braun A, Colette A, Dqu M, Georgievski G, Georgopoulou E, Gobiet A, Menut L, Nikulin G, Haensler A, Hempelmann N, Jones C, Keuler K, Kovats S, Krner N, Kotlarski S, Kriegsmann A, Martin E, Meijgaard E van, Moseley C, Pfeifer S, Preuschmann S, Radermacher C, Radtke K, Rechid D, Rounsevell M, Samuelsson P, Somot S, Soussana J-F, Teichmann C, Valentini R, Vautard R, Weber B, Yiou P (2014) EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg Environ Change 14:563–9678
Janjic ZI (1994) The step-mountain eta coordinate model: Further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer and turbulence closure schemes. Mon Wea Rev 122:927–945
Jankov I, Gallus WA, Segal M, Shaw B, Koch SE (2005) The impact of different WRF model physical parameterizations and their interactions on warm season MCS rainfall. Wea Forecasting 20:1048–1060
Ji F, Ekström M, Evans JP, Teng J (2014) Evaluating rainfall patterns using physics scheme ensembles from a regional atmospheric model. Theor Appl Climatol 115:297–304
Ji F, Evans JP, Argueso D, Fita L, Di Luca A (2015) Using large-scale diagnostic quantities to investigate change in east coast lows. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2481-9
Jones D, Wang W, Fawcett R (2009) High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia. Aust Meteor Mag 58:233–248
Kain JS (2004) The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: an update. J Appl Meteor 43:170–181
Kain JS, Fritsch JM (1990) A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterization. J Atmos Sci 47:2784–2802
Karl TR, Knight RW (1998) Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 79:231–242
Kendon EJ, Roberts NM, Senior CA, Roberts MJ (2012) Realism of rainfall in a very high-resolution regional climate model. J Climate 25:5791–5806
King AD, Alexander LV, Donat MG (2012) The efficacy of using gridded data to examine extreme rainfall characteristics: a case study for Australia. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.3588
Lavers DA, Villarini G (2013) Were global numerical weather prediction systems capable of forecasting the extreme Colorado rainfall of 9-16 September 2013? GRL 40:6405–6410
Liang XZ, Xu M, Yuan X, Ling T, Choi HI, Zhang F, Chen L, Liu S, Su S, Qiao F, Wang JXL, Kunkel KE, Gao W, Joseph E, Morris V, Yu TW, Dudhia J, Michalakes J (2012) Regional climate weather research and forecasting model. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 93 :1363–1387
Lim KSS, Hong SY (2010) Development of an effective double-moment cloud large-scale condensation scheme with prognostic cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) for weather and climate models. Mon Wea Rev 138:1587–1612
Lonfat M, Marks FD, Chen SS (2004) Precipitation distribution in tropical cyclones using the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) microwave imager: a global perspective. Mon Wea Rev 132:1645–1660
Lowrey MR, Yang ZL (2008) Assessing the capability of a regional-scale weather model to simulate extreme precipitation patterns and flooding in central Texas. Wea Forecasting 23:1102– 1126
Mills GA, Webb R, Davidson N, Kepert J, Seed A, Abbs D (2010) The Pasha Bulker east coast low of 8 June 2007. CAWCR technical report no 23 Centre for Australian weather and climate research, Melbourne, Australia
Mlawer EJ, Taubman SJ, Brown PD, Iacono MJ, Clough SA (1997) Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the long-wave. J Geophys Res 102:16663–16682
Paulson CA (1970) The mathematical representation of wind speed and temperature profiles in the unstable atmospheric surface layer. J Appl Meteor 9:857–861
Schumacher RS, Clark AJ, Xue M, Kong F (2013) Factors influencing the development and maintenance of nocturnal heavy-rain-producing convective systems in a storm-scale ensemble. Mon Wea Rev 141:2778–2801
Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Barker DM, Duda MG, Huang XY, Wang W, Powers JG (2008) A description of the advanced research WRF version 3. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-475+STR
Speer M, Wiles P, Pepler A (2009) Low pressure systems off the New South Wales coast and associated hazardous weather: establishment of a database. Aust Meteorol Oceanogr J 58:29–39
Stephens GL, L’Ecuyer T, Forbes R, Gettlemen A, Golaz JC, Bodas-Salcedo A, Suzuki K, Gabriel P, Haynes J (2010) Dreary state of precipitation in global models. J Geophys Res 115:D24211
Sunyer MA, Madsen H, Ang PH (2012) A comparison of different regional climate models and statistical downscaling methods for extreme rainfall estimation under climate change. Atmos Res 103:119–128
Tapiador FJ, Tao WK, Shi JJ, Angelis CF, Martinez MA, Marcos C, Rodriguez A, Hou A (2012) A comparison of perturbed initial conditions and multiphysics ensembles in a severe weather episode in Spain. J Appl Meteor Climatol 51 :489–504
Verdon-Kidd DC, Kiem AS, Willgoose G, Haines P (2010) East Coast Lows and the Newcastle/Central Coast Pasha Bulker storm. Report for the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, Australia
Verworn A, Haberlandt U (2011) Spatial interpolation of hourly rainfall - effect of additional information, variogram inference and storm properties. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:569–584
Wing AA, Emanuel KA (2014) Physical mechanisms controlling self-aggregation of convection in idealized numerical modeling simulations. J Adv Model Earth Sy 6:59–74
Acknowledgments
This work is made possible by funding from the NSW Environmental Trust for the ESCCI-ECL project, the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage backed NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling Project (NARCliM) and the Australian Research Council as part of the Discovery Project DP0772665, Super Science Fellowship FS100100054 and Future Fellowship FT110100576. This work was supported by an award under the Merit Allocation Scheme on the NCI National Facility at the Australian National University.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Gilmore, J.B., Evans, J.P., Sherwood, S.C. et al. Extreme precipitation in WRF during the Newcastle East Coast Low of 2007. Theor Appl Climatol 125, 809–827 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1551-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1551-6