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Frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extreme events in China during 1951–2010

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Abstract

This study investigates frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes based on annual maximum of daily precipitation (AMP) data of 753 observation stations in China during the period 1951–2010. Several statistical methods including L-moments, Mann-Kendall test (MK test), Student’s t test (t test) and analysis of variance (F-test) are used to study different statistical properties related to frequency and spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the AMP series of most sites have no linear trends at 90 % confidence level, but there is a distinctive decrease trend in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region. The analysis of abrupt changes shows that there are no significant changes in most sites, and no distinctive regional patterns within the mutation sites either. An important innovation different from the previous studies is the shift in the mean and the variance which are also studied in this paper in order to further analyze the changes of strong and weak precipitation extreme events. The shift analysis shows that we should pay more attention to the drought in North China and to the flood control and drought in South China, especially to those regions that have no clear trend and have a significant shift in the variance. More important, this study conducts the comprehensive analysis of a complete set of quantile estimates and its spatiotemporal characteristic in China. Spatial distribution of quantile estimation based on the AMP series demonstrated that the values gradually increased from the Northwest to the Southeast with the increment of duration and return period, while the increasing rate of estimation is smooth in the arid and semiarid region and is rapid in humid region. Frequency estimates of 50-year return period are in agreement with the maximum observations of AMP series in the most stations, which can provide more quantitative and scientific basis for decision making.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are very grateful of Professor Lin Bingzhang to provide the guide and help in the whole paper. This research is financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of in Jiangsu Province (BK20141001), by the Natural Science Foundation of the Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province (13KJB170017), and by the Meteorological Open Research Fund in Huaihe River Basin (HRM201205). The authors would like to acknowledge Associate Professor Samiran Das and the anonymous reviewers for their professional comments which greatly help to improve the quality of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Applied Hydrometeorological Research Institute, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, People’s Republic of China

    Yuehong Shao & Junmei Wu

  2. Kunshan Meteorological Bereaus, Kunshan, 215300, People’s Republic of China

    Junmei Wu

  3. Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Center, Bengbu, 233040, People’s Republic of China

    Jinyin Ye

  4. Institute of Resources and Environment, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, 454000, People’s Republic of China

    Yonghe Liu

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  1. Yuehong Shao
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  2. Junmei Wu
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  4. Yonghe Liu
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Correspondence to Yuehong Shao.

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Shao, Y., Wu, J., Ye, J. et al. Frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extreme events in China during 1951–2010. Theor Appl Climatol 121, 775–787 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1481-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1481-3

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