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Influence of southern oscillation on autumn rainfall in Iran (1951–2011)

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Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the relationships between southern oscillation and autumn (October–December) rainfall in Iran. It also sought to identify the possible physical mechanisms involved in the mentioned relationships by analyzing observational atmospheric data. Analyses were based on monthly rainfall data from 50 synoptic stations with at least 35 years of records up to the end of 2011. Autumn rainfall time series were grouped by the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and SOI phase methods. Significant differences between rainfall groups in each method were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis and Kolmogorov-Smirnov non-parametric tests. Their relationships were also validated using the linear error in probability space (LEPS) test. The results showed that average SOI and SOI phases during July–September were related with autumn rainfall in some regions located in the west and northwest of Iran, west coasts of the Caspian Sea and southern Alborz Mountains. The El Niño (negative) and La Niña (positive) phases were associated with increased and decreased autumn rainfall, respectively. Our findings also demonstrated the persistence of Southern Pacific Ocean’s pressure signals on autumn rainfall in Iran. Geopotential height patterns were totally different in the selected El Niño and La Niña years over Iran. During the El Niño years, a cyclone was formed over the north of Iran and an anticyclone existed over the Mediterranean Sea. During La Niña years, the cyclone shifted towards the Mediterranean Sea and an anticyclone developed over Iran. While these El Niño conditions increased autumn rainfall in Iran, the opposite conditions during the La Niña phase decreased rainfall in the country. In conclusion, development of rainfall prediction models based on the SOI can facilitate agricultural and water resources management in Iran.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to Ian Partridge, whose assistance and suggestions were extremely useful throughout working with Rainman software and producing the final manuscript. We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions to improve the quality of the paper.

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  1. Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, 84156-83111, Iran

    Rabbaneh Roghani, Saeid Soltani & Hossein Bashari

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  1. Rabbaneh Roghani
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  2. Saeid Soltani
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  3. Hossein Bashari
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Correspondence to Saeid Soltani.

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Roghani, R., Soltani, S. & Bashari, H. Influence of southern oscillation on autumn rainfall in Iran (1951–2011). Theor Appl Climatol 124, 411–423 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1423-0

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