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Evaluation of two GCMs in simulating rainfall inter-annual variability over Southern Africa

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Abstract

We evaluate the performance of two global circulation models (GCMs) over Southern Africa, as part of the efforts to improve the skill of seasonal forecast from a multi-model ensemble system over the region. The two GCMs evaluated in the study are the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3 (HadAM3). The study analyzed 30-year climate simulations from the models and compared the results with those from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset. The evaluation focused on how well the models simulate circulation features, seasonal variation of temperature and rainfall, and the inter-annual rainfall and circulations during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. The study also investigated the relationship between the regional rainfall from the models and global sea surface temperature (SST) during the El Niño and La Niña years. The results show that both GCMs simulate the circulation features and the seasonal cycles of rainfall and temperature fairly well. The location and magnitude of maxima and minima in surface temperature, sea level pressure (SLP), and rainfall fields are well reproduced. The maximum error in the simulated temperature fields is about 2 °, 4 mb in SLP and 8 mm/day in rainfall. However, CAM3 shows a major bias in simulating the summer rainfall; it simulates the maximum rainfall along the western part of Southern Africa, instead of the eastern part. The phase of the seasonal cycles is well reproduced, but the amplitude is underestimated over the Western Cape. Both CAM3 and HadAM3 give reasonable simulations of significant relationship between the regional rainfall and SST over the Nino 3.4 region and show that ENSO strongly drives the climate of Southern Africa. Hence, the model simulations could contribute to understanding the climate of the region and improve seasonal forecasts over Southern Africa.

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Acknowledgments

The project is sponsored by the Centre for High Performance Computation (CHPC South Africa) and Department of Energy (DOE, USA). The first author is grateful to Schlumberger (faculty for the future fellowship) and DAAD for financial support. The second author is grateful to John Standford for financial support under the incentive project funds at Iowa State University. The authors appreciate the technical support of Climate Systems Analysis Group staff. Lastly, thanks go to the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy, for the opportunity to complete this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ghana Space Science and Technology Institute, Ghana Atomic Energy Commission, Kwabenya, Accra, Ghana

    Nana Ama Browne Klutse

  2. Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

    Babatunde J. Abiodun, Bruce C. Hewitson & Mark A. Tadross

  3. Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA

    William J. Gutowski

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  1. Nana Ama Browne Klutse
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  5. Mark A. Tadross
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Correspondence to Nana Ama Browne Klutse.

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Klutse, N.A.B., Abiodun, B.J., Hewitson, B.C. et al. Evaluation of two GCMs in simulating rainfall inter-annual variability over Southern Africa. Theor Appl Climatol 123, 415–436 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1356-z

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