Advertisement

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 122, Issue 3–4, pp 471–486 | Cite as

Variability in dryness and wetness in central Finland and the role of teleconnection patterns

  • M. IrannezhadEmail author
  • A. Torabi Haghighi
  • D. Chen
  • B. Kløve
Original Paper

Abstract

Interannual variability in meteorological dryness and wetness in central Finland during the period 1959–2009 was analysed using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on three timescales (annual, seasonal and monthly). For different time steps (12, 3 and 1 months) of SPI values (SPI12, SPI3 and SPI1), trends based on the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and the most significant relationships with a number of climate teleconnection patterns based on Spearman correlation coefficient (rho) were determined. Analysis of the SPI values on different timescales showed a general decreasing trend in dryness and an increasing trend in wetness; only August showed an increasing trend in dryness. The longest wet period observed was 5 years (between 1988 and 1992), while the longest dry period was 4 years (in the mid-1960s). Wet conditions were more frequent than dry conditions and mainly occurred at extreme or moderate level. Typically, the extremely wet level was more frequent than the extremely dry level. The dry and wet conditions were negatively correlated with the East Atlantic/West Russia and Scandinavia teleconnection patterns and positively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Keywords

Standardize Precipitation Index Drought Index Teleconnection Pattern Arctic Oscillation Standardize Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully thank the Ministry of Agricultural and Forestry in Finland (TUVE project) and Maa- ja Vesitekniikan Tuki r.y. (MVTT) for funding this research. We also acknowledge the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the USA for making available online the standardized monthly values of the teleconnection patterns.

References

  1. Akinremi OO, McGinn SM, Cutforth HW (1999) Precipitation trends on the Canadian prairies. J Clim 12:2996–3003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Alcamo J, Floerke M, Maerker M (2007) Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socioeconomic and climatic changes. Hydrolog Sci J 52:247–275CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Atlas of Finland-Climate (1987) Folio 131. National board of survey and geographical society of Finland. HelsinkiGoogle Scholar
  4. BACC (2008) Assessment of climate change in the Baltic Sea basin. Springer Verlag Berlin-Heidelberg, ISBN 978-3-540-72785, 473 ppGoogle Scholar
  5. Barnett TP, Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP (2005) Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature 438:303–309CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Barnston GA, Livezey RE (1987) Classification, seasonality and persistence of low frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon Weather Rev 115:1083–1126CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bartolini E, Claps P, D’Odorico P (2009) Interannul variability of winter precipitation in the European Alps: relations with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 13:17–25CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Boer GJ, Flato G, Ramdsen D (2000) A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate to the twenty-first century. Clim Dynam 16:427–450CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Bordi I, Sutera A (2001) Fifty years of precipitation: some spatially remote teleconnections. Water Resour Manag 15:247–280CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Bordi I, Sutera A (2012) Drought assessment in a changing climate. Climate variability—some aspects, challenges and prospects. A. Hannachi (Ed.), 192 pp., In Tech, 123–140Google Scholar
  11. Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Sutera A (2009) Observed drought and wetness trends in Europe: an update. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 13:1519–1530CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Bueh C, Nakamura H (2007) Scandinavian pattern and its climatic impact. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 133:2117–2131CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Busuioc A, Chen D, Hellström C (2001a) Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in Sweden and its link with the large scale atmospheric circulation. Tellus A 53:348–367CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Busuioc A, Chen D, Hellström C (2001b) Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: application for Swedish precipitation. Int J Climatol 21:557–578CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Castro M, Gallardo C, Jylhä K, Tuomenvirta H (2007) The use of a climate-type classification for assessing climate change effects in Europe from an ensemble of regional climate models. Clim Change 81:329–341CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Chang WYB (1997) ENSO-extreme climate events and their impacts on Asian deltas. J Am Water Resour Assoc 33(3):605–614CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Chaouche K, Neppel L, Dieulin C, Pujol N, Ladouche B, Martin E, Salas D, Caballero Y (2010) Analyses of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration in a French Mediterranean region in the context of climate change. Compt Rendus Geosci 342:234–243CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Chen D, Chen HW (2013) Using the Köppen classification to quantify climate variation and change: an example for 1901-2010. Environ Dev 6:69–79CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Chen D, Hellström C (1999) The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the regional temperature variability in Sweden: spatial and temporal variations. Tellus A 51:505–516CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Chen D, Gao G, Xu C-Y, Gao J, Ren G (2005) Comparison of Thornthwaite method and Pan data with the standard Penman-Monteith estimates of potential evapotranspiration for China. Clim Res 28:123–132CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Chen HW, Zhang Q, Körnich H, Chen D (2013) A robust mode of climate variability in the arctic: the Barents oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 40(11):2856–2861CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Chiew FHA, Piechota TC, Dracup JA, McMahon TA (1998) El Niño Southern Oscillation and Australian rainfall, streamflow and drought—links and potential for forecasting. J Hydrol 204(1–4):138–149CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. CPC (2011) Northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns. (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/telecontents.shtml)
  24. Dai A, Fung IY, Del Genio AD (1997) Surface observed global land precipitation variations during 1900–1988. J Clim 10:2943–2962CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Dayan U, Lamb D (2005) Global and synoptic-scale weather patterns controlling wet atmospheric deposition over central Europe. Atmos Environ 39:521–533CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Di Lena B, Vergni L, Antenucci F, Todisco F, Mannocchi F (2014) Analysis of drought in the region of Abruzzo (Central Italy) by the Standardized Precipitation Index. Theor Appl Climatol 115:41–52CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Dore MHI (2005) Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: what do we know? Environ Int 31:1167–1181CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Douglas EA, Vogel RM, Kroll CN (2000) Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. J Hydrol 240:90–105CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Dracup JA, Lee KS, Paulson EG (1980) On the statistical characteristics of drought events. Water Resour Res 16(2):289–296CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Drápela K, Drápelova I (2011) Application of Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimates for trend detection in deposition data from Bily Křiž (Beskydy Mts., the Czech Republic) 1997-2010. Beskydy 4(2):133–146Google Scholar
  31. Drebs A, Nordlund A, Karlsson P, Helminen J, Rissanen P (2002) Tilastoja Suomen ilmastosta 1971–2000—climatological statistics of Finland 1971–2000. Ilmastotilastoja Suomesta 2002:1, Finnish Meteorological Institute. HelsinkiGoogle Scholar
  32. Gathara ST, Gringof LG, Marsha E, Sinha Ray K, Spasov P (2006) Impacts of desertification and drought and of other extreme meteorological events. CAgM Report No. 101, WMO/TD No. 1343, Geneva, Switzerland, 85 ppGoogle Scholar
  33. Glantz MH, Katz RW, Nicholls N (eds.) (2009) Teleconnections linking worldwide climate anomalies: scientific basis and societal impact. Cambridge University Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  34. Guttman NB (1999) Accepting the standardized precipitation index: a calculation algorithm. J Am Water Resour Assoc 35:311–322CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Hayes MJ, Svoboda MD, Wilhite DA et al (1999) Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80(3):429–438CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Hayes MJ, Svoboda MD, Wall N, Widhalm M (2011) The Lincoln declaration on drought indices: universal meteorological drought index recommended. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92:485–488CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Heim R (2002) A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1149–1165CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Helsel DR, Hirsch RM (1992) Statistical methods in water resources. Studies in Environmental Science (Amsterdam), 522pGoogle Scholar
  39. Hoerling M, Kumar A (2003) The perfect ocean for drought. Science 299:691–694CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Hurrell JW, Van Loon H (1997) Decadal variation in climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Clim Change 36:301–326CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. IPCC (2007a) Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USAGoogle Scholar
  42. IPCC (2007b) Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—Fourth assessment report—Summary for policymakers. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA. 23 ppGoogle Scholar
  43. Irannezhad M, Marttila H, Kløve B (2014) Long-term variations and trends in precipitation in Finland. Int J Climatol 34(10):3139–3153. doi: 10.1002/joc.3902 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Jaagus J (2006) Climatic changes in Estonia during the second half of the 20th century in relationship with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. Theor Appl Climatol 83:77–88CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Jaagus J (2009) Regionalization of the precipitation pattern in the Baltic Sea drainage basin and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric circulation. Boreal Environ Res 14:31–44Google Scholar
  46. Jhajharia D, Yadav BK, Maske S, Chattopadhyay S, Kar AK (2012) Identification of trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall over subtropical Assam in Northeast India. Compt Rendus Geosci 344:1–13CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Käyhkö J (2004) Muuttuuko Pohjolan ilmasto? (Fennoscandian climate in change?) Publications of Geography Department of the University of Turku 168. 19–35. Turku. (in Finnish with English abstract)Google Scholar
  48. Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Griffin, LondonGoogle Scholar
  49. Kjellström E, Ruosteenoja K (2007) Present-day and future precipitation in the Baltic Sea region as simulated in a suite of regional climate models. Clim Change 81(S1):281–291CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Korhonen J, Kuusisto E (2010) Long-term changes in the discharge regime in Finland. Hydrol Res 41(3–4):253–268CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Kossida M, Koutiva I, Makropoulos C, Monokrousou K, Mimikou M, Fons-Esteve J, Iglesias A (2009) Water scarcity and drought: towards a European Water Scarcity and Drought Network (WSDN). European Environmental Agency, 107ppGoogle Scholar
  52. Krichak SO, Alpert P (2005) Decadal trends in the East Atlantic-West Russia pattern and Mediterranean precipitation. Int J Climatol 25:183–192CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Kundzewicz ZW (2009) Adaptation to floods and droughts in the Baltic Sea basin under climate change. Boreal Environ Res 14:193–203Google Scholar
  54. Lehner B, Döll P, Alcamo J, Henrichs H, Kaspar F (2005) Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: a continental, integrated assessment. Clim Change 75:273–299CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Lehtonen H, Kujala S (2007) Climate change impacts on crop risks and agricultural production in Finland. The 101st EAAE Seminar: Management of Climate Risks in Agriculture, Berlin, Germany, July 5–6, 2007Google Scholar
  56. Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders M (2002) A drought climatology for Europe. Int J Climatol 22:1571–1592CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kliest J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, 17–22 January, Anaheim, USA., pp 179–184Google Scholar
  59. Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391:202–216CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Mitchell JFB et al (2001) Detection of climate change and attribution of causes. In Houghton JT et al. (Eds.). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press: UKGoogle Scholar
  61. Moron V, Vautard R, Ghil M (1998) Trends, interdecadal and interannual oscillation in global sea-surface temperatures. Clim Dynam 14:545–569CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. MTT (2007) Finnish agriculture and rural industries 2007. MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Economic Research, Publications 107a, 96 ppGoogle Scholar
  63. Nicholls N, Alexander L (2007) Has the climate become more variable or extreme? Progress 1992-2006. Prog Phys Geogr 31(1):77–87CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Okkonen J, Kløve B (2010) A conceptual and statistical approach for the analysis of climate impact on ground water table fluctuation patterns in cold conditions. J Hydrol 388:1–12CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Olin M, Ruuhijärvi J. (eds.) (2005) Kalakuolemienvaikutusten seurantatutkimus 2003-2004. (Monitoring the effects of fish kills in 2003-2004). Kala- ja riistaraportteja 361: 75 pp. ISBN 951-776-504-5 (in Finnish)Google Scholar
  66. Özger M, Mishra A, Singh VP (2009) Low frequency variability in drought events associated with climate indices. J of Hydro 364:152–162CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Paulo AA, Rosa RD, Pereira LS (2012) Climate trends and behaviour of drought indices based on precipitation and evapotranspiration in Portugal. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12:1481–1491CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Peltonen-Sainio P, Jauhiainen L, Laurila IP (2009) Cereal yield trends in northern European conditions: changes in yield potential and its realization. Field Crop Res 110(1):85–90CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Pirinen P, Simola H, Aalto J, Kaukoranta J-P, Karlsson P, Ruuhela R (2012) Tilastoja Suomen Ilmastosta 1981-2010 [Climatological statistics of Finland 1981-2010]. Reports 2012:1, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki [in Finnish and English]Google Scholar
  70. Rimkus E, Valiukas D, Kažys J, Gečaitė I, Stonevičius E (2012) Dryness dynamics of the Baltic Sea region. Baltica 25(2):129–142CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Saarinen T, Kløve B (2012) Past and future seasonal variation in pH and metal concentrations in runoff from river basins on acid sulphate soils in Western Finland. J Environ Sci Health A Tox Hazard Subst Environ Eng 47(11):1614–1625CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Saarinen T, Vuori K-M, Alasaarela E, Kløve B (2010) Long-term trends and variation of acidity, CODMn and colour in coastal rivers of western Finland in relation to climate and hydrology. Sci Total Environ 408:5019–5027CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Saarinen T, Mohammadighavam S, Marttila H, Kløve B (2013) Impact of peatland forestry on runoff water quality in areas with sulphide-bearing sediments; how to prevent acid surges. For Ecol Manage 293:17–28CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Int J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Shabbar A, Skinner W (2004) Summer drought patterns in Canada and the relationship to global sea surface temperatures. J Clim 17:2866–2880CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  76. Sienz F, Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Scheneiderit A (2007) Extreme dry and wet events in Iceland: observations, simulations and scenarios. Meteorologische Zeitschrift Band 16 Heft 1:9–16CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. Silander J, Järvinen EA. (eds.) (2004) Vuosien 2002-2003 poikkeuksellisen kuivuuden vaikutukset [Effects of severe drought 2002-2003]. The Finnish Environment 731, Finnish Environmental Institute, Helsinki. [In Finnish with English abstract]Google Scholar
  78. Solantie RK, Joukola MPJ (2001) Evapotranspiration 1961-1990 in Finland as function of meteorological and land-type factors. Boreal Environ Res 6:261–273Google Scholar
  79. Spinoni J, Antofie T, Barbosa P, Bihari Z, Lakatos SS, Szentimrey T, Vogt J (2013) An overview of drought events in the Carpathian Region in 1961-2010. Adv Sci Res 10:21–32CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  80. Tallaksen LM, Stahl K, Wong G (2011) Space-time characteristics of large-scale droughts in Europe derived from steamflow observations and WATCH multi-model simulations. WATCH Project Technical Report No. 48. 11 pGoogle Scholar
  81. Tammelin B, Forsius J, Jylhä K, Järvinen P, Koskela J, Tuomenvirta H, Turunen MA, Vehviläinen B, Venäläinen A (2002) Ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksia energiantuotantoon ja lämmitysenergian tarpeeseen. (English abstract: Effect of climate change on energy production and heating power demand). Ilmatieteen laitos, Raportteja, Finnish Meteorological Institute Reports: FinlandGoogle Scholar
  82. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (1998) The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys Res Lett 25(9):1297–1300CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  83. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (2000) Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part І: month-to-month variability. J Clim 13:1000–1016CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  84. Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev 38:55–94CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  85. Thorsteinsson T, Björnsson H (2011) Climate change and energy systems: impacts, risks and adaptation in the Nordic and Baltic Countries, Nordic Council of Ministers, 226 pGoogle Scholar
  86. Tietäväinen H, Tuomenvirta H, Venäläinen A (2010) Annual and seasonal mean temperatures in Finland during the last 160 years based on gridded temperature data. Int J Climatol 30:2247–2256CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  87. Tsakiris G, Pangalou D, Vangelis H (2007) Regional drought assessment based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Water Resour Manag 21:821–833CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. Tuomenvirta H, Heino R (1996) Climatic changes in Finland—recent findings. Geophysica 32(1–2):61–75Google Scholar
  89. UNISDR (2009) Drought risk reduction framework and practices: contributing to the implementation of the Hyogo framework for action. United Nations Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), Geneva, Switzerland, 213 pGoogle Scholar
  90. Uvo CB (2003) Analysis and regionalization of northern European winter precipitation based on its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Int J Climatol 19:253–269Google Scholar
  91. Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguerí S, López-Moreno JI (2010a) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J Clim 23:1696–1718CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  92. Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguerí S, López-Moreno JI, Angulo M, El Kenawy A (2010b) A new global 0.5° gridded dataset (1901-2006) of a multiscalar drought index: comparison with current drought index datasets baed on the Plamer Drought Severity Index. J Hydrometeorol 11:1033–1043CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  93. Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguerí S, Lorenzo-Lacruz J, Camarero JJ, López-Moreno JI, Azorin-Molina C, Revuelto J, Morán-Tejeda E, Sanchez-Lorenzo A (2012) Performance for drought indices for ecological, agricultural and hydrological applications. Earth Interactions 16(10):1–27CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  94. Wallace JM, Gutzler DS (1981) Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon Weather Rev 109:784–812CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  95. Wells N, Goddard S, Hayes MJ (2004) A self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. J Clim 17:2335–2351CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  96. Wibig J (1999) Precipitation in Europe in relation to circulation patterns at the 500 hPa level. Int J Climatol 19:253–269CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  97. Wilhite DA, Glantz MH (1985) Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water Int 10(3):111–120CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  98. WMO (2009) Experts agree on a universal drought index to cope with climate risk. WMO Press Release No. 872, Geneva, 15 December 2009Google Scholar
  99. Yue S, Wang CY (2004) The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resoue Manag 18:201–218CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  100. Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydro Process 16:1807–1829CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  101. Zahn R (2009) Climate change: beyond the CO2 connection. Nature 460:335–336CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  102. Zeng N, Haifeng Q, Munoz E, Iacono R (2004) How strong is carbon cycle-climate feedback under global warming? Geophys Res Lett 31, L20203CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  103. Zolina O, Simmer C, Belyaev K, Gulev SK, Koltermann P (2012) Changes in the duration of European wet and dry spells during the last 60 years. J Clim 26:2022–2047CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • M. Irannezhad
    • 1
    Email author
  • A. Torabi Haghighi
    • 1
  • D. Chen
    • 2
  • B. Kløve
    • 1
  1. 1.Water Resources and Environmental Engineering Research Group, Faculty of TechnologyUniversity of OuluOuluFinland
  2. 2.Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburgSweden

Personalised recommendations