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Theoretical and Applied Climatology

, Volume 120, Issue 1–2, pp 87–98 | Cite as

Effects of climate change on daily minimum and maximum temperatures and cloudiness in the Shikoku region: a statistical downscaling model approach

  • Kenichi TatsumiEmail author
  • Tsutao Oizumi
  • Yosuke Yamashiki
Original Paper

Abstract

In this study, we present a detailed analysis of the effect of changes in cloudiness (CLD) between a future period (2071–2099) and the base period (1961–1990) on daily minimum temperature (TMIN) and maximum temperature (TMAX) in the same period for the Shikoku region, Japan. This analysis was performed using climate data obtained with the use of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). We calibrated the SDSM using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the SDSM input and daily time series of temperature and CLD from 10 surface data points (SDP) in Shikoku. Subsequently, we validated the SDSM outputs, specifically, TMIN, TMAX, and CLD, obtained with the use of the NCEP reanalysis dataset and general circulation model (GCM) data against the SDP. The GCM data used in the validation procedure were those from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios and from the third generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios. Finally, the validated SDSM was run to study the effect of future changes in CLD on TMIN and TMAX. Our analysis showed that (1) the negative linear fit between changes in TMAX and those in CLD was statistically significant in winter while the relationship between the two changes was not evident in summer, (2) the dependency of future changes in TMAX and TMIN on future changes in CLD were more evident in winter than in other seasons with the present SDSM, (3) the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased in the southern part of Shikoku in summer in all the SDSM projections while DTR increased in the northern part of Shikoku in the same season in these projections, (4) the dependencies of changes in DTR on changes in CLD were unclear in summer and winter. Results of the SDSM simulations performed for climate change scenarios such as those from this study contribute to local-scale agricultural and hydrological simulations and development of agricultural and hydrological models.

Keywords

General Circulation Model Diurnal Temperature Range Validation Period Statistical Downscaling Future Climate Change Scenario 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Supplementary material

704_2014_1152_MOESM1_ESM.doc (4.6 mb)
ESM 1 (DOC 4741 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kenichi Tatsumi
    • 1
    Email author
  • Tsutao Oizumi
    • 2
  • Yosuke Yamashiki
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of Environmental and Agricultural EngineeringTokyo University of Agriculture and TechnologyFuchu CityJapan
  2. 2.Research Institute for Global ChangeJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and TechnologyYokohama CityJapan
  3. 3.Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human SurvivabilityKyoto UniversityKyotoJapan

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