Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

The relative contribution of climate and cultivar renewal to shaping rice yields in China since 1981

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Rice is one of China’s most important staple food crops, where the yields are strongly influenced by climate and rice variety renewal. Using high-quality weather data, rice growth, and agricultural practice data, the contribution of climatic variation on rice yield increases was analyzed from 1981 to 2009 in Wuchang, Northeast China. In this region, the annual mean surface air temperature increased by 0.6 °C/decade, and the accumulated temperature (>10 °C) increased by 120.1 °C/decade from 1981 to 2009, mainly related to global warming. During the same period, rice yields increased by 2,095 kg/ha*decade. To quantify the contribution of climate change to rice yield increases, a “climate similarity index” was devised, where the most important climate parameters for rice growth were compared among years. If the rice variety was changed between 2 years, while the climate conditions were similar, any yield change would be attributed to a rice variety renewal effect. Conversely, changes in rice yields that were not associated with variety changes were attributed to climate change. Our results showed that over the analyzed period, the influence of climate on yields was estimated to 805 kg/ha per decade, while the increasing trend due to rice variety renewal was estimated to 1,290 kg/ha per decade. Thus, 38 % of the yield increases can be related to climatic variation and the remaining 62 % to changes in rice varieties. Furthermore, the effect of variety renewal on the rice yield increases was more pronounced before the 1990s, while afterward, the yield increases were mainly influenced by climatic variations in Northeast China.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Berner J, Callaghan TV, Huntington H et al (2004) Impacts of a warming Arctic: Arctic climate impact assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Cheng SH, Li J (2007) Modern China rice. Jin Dun Publishing House, Beijing (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • China Soil Survey Office (CSUO) (1995) Soil type record of China. China Agriculture Publishing House, Beijing (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • CSY, China Statistical Yearbook (2011) China Statistical Publishing House, Beijing (In Chinese)

  • Ding Y, Ren G (2008) An introduction to climate change science of China. China Meteorological Press, Beijing (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • FAOSTAT (2011) Statistics Database. http://faostat.fao.org

  • Guo JP, Ma SQ (2009) The monitoring and forecast of low temperature of agriculture. China Meteorological Press, Beijing (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Hansen JW, Challinor A, Ines A, Wheeler T, Moron V (2006) Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges. Clim Res 33:27–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang Y, Yu Y, Zhang W, Sun W, Liu S, Jiang J, Wu J, Yu W, Wang Y, Yang Z (2009) Agro-C: a biogeophysical model for simulating the carbon budget of agroecosystems. Agric For Meteorol 149:106–129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Jia J, Yu J, Liu C (2002) Groundwater regime and calculation of yield response in North China Plain: a case study of Luancheng County in Hebei province. J Geogr Sci 12:217–225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Q, Dong W, Li W, Gao X, Jones P, Kennedy J, Parker D (2010) Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century. Chin Sci Bull 55:1974–1982

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Y, Conway D, Xiong W, Gao Q, Wu Y, Wan Y, Li Y, Zhang S (2011) Effects of climate variability and change on Chinese agriculture: a review. Clim Res 50:83–102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Asner GP (2003) Climate and management contributions to recent trends in US agricultural yields. Science 299:1032

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Ortiz-Monasterio JI, Asner GP, Matson PA, Naylor RL, Falcon WP (2005) Analysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico. Field Crop Res 94:250–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB et al (2008) Prioritising climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319:607–610

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Banziger M, Magorokosho C, Vivek B (2011) Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials. Nat Clim Chang 1:42–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (2010) China climate impact assessment. Meteorological Publishing House, Beijing, In Chinese

    Google Scholar 

  • Peng S, Laza R, Visperas R, Sanico A, Cassman KG, Khush G (2000) Grain yield of rice cultivars and lines developed in the Philippines since 1966. Crop Sci 40:307–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peng S, Khush GS, Virk P, Tang Q, Zou Y (2008) Progress in ideotype breeding to increase rice yield potential. Field Crop Res 108:32–38

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piao SL, Ciais P, Huang Y et al (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467:43–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qian W-H, Chen D, Lin Q, Qin W-M (2005) Regional temperature and precipitation trend under global change. Newsl Clim Chang 3:8 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ren GY, Xu MZ, Chu ZY, Guo J, Li QX, Liu XN, Wang Y (2005) Changes of surface air temperature in China during 1951–2004. Clim Environ Res 10(4):717–727 (In Chinese with English abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ren GY, Guan ZY, Shao XM, Gong DY (2011) Change in climatic extremes over mainland China. Clim Res 50(1–2):105–111. doi:10.3354/cr01067

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren G, Ding Y, Zhao Z, Zheng J, Wu T, Tang G, Xu Y (2012) Recent progress in studies of climate change in China. Adv Atmos Sci 29(5):958–977

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Song YL, Simelton E, Chen DL, Dong WJ (2005) Influence of climate change on winter wheat growth in North China during 1950–2000. Acta Meteorol Sin 19(4):501–510

    Google Scholar 

  • Song YL, Aschberger C, Linderholm HW (2011) Rain-season trends in precipitation and their effect in different climate regions of China during 1961–2008. Environ Res Lett 6:034025. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034025

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun W, Huang Y (2012) Synthetic fertilizer management for China’s cereal crops has reduced N2O emissions since the early 2000. Environ Pollut 160:24–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao F, Yokozawa M, Liu J, Zhang Z (2008) Climate–crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends. Clim Res 38:83–94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wei FY (2007) Modern climate statistics diagnosis and prediction. China Meteorological Press, Beijing (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Xin L, Li X, Tan M (2012) Temporal and regional variations of China’s fertilizer consumption by crops during 1998–2008. J Geogr Sci 22:643–652

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xiong W, Xu YL, Lin ED et al (2005) Regional simulation of maize production under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. J Chin Agrometeorology 26(1):11–15

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu YQ, Huang Y, Zhang W (2012) Changes in rice yields in China since 1980 associated with cultivar improvement, climate and crop management. Field Crop Res 136:66–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai PM, Ren FM, Zhang Q (1999) Detection of trends in China’s precipitation extremes. Acta Meteorol Sin 57(2):208–216 (In Chinese with English abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang T, Zhu J, Wassmann R (2010) Responses of rice yields to recent climate change in China: an empirical assessment based on long-term observations at different spatial scales (1981–2005). Agric For Meteorol 150:1128–1137

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2013CB430205) and the impact of agrometeorology disasters on agriculture under climate change in China (GYHY 201106021).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Chunyi Wang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Song, Y., Wang, C., Ren, G. et al. The relative contribution of climate and cultivar renewal to shaping rice yields in China since 1981. Theor Appl Climatol 120, 1–9 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1089-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1089-z

Keywords

Navigation