Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Comparison of intra-seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon between two versions of NCEP coupled models

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The real-time forecasting of monsoon activity over India on extended range time scale (about 3 weeks) is analyzed for the monsoon season of 2012 during June to September (JJAS) by using the outputs from latest (CFSv2 [Climate Forecast System version 2]) and previous version (CFSv1 [Climate Forecast System version 1]) of NCEP coupled modeling system. The skill of monsoon rainfall forecast is found to be much better in CFSv2 than CFSv1. For the country as a whole the correlation coefficient (CC) between weekly observed and forecast rainfall departure was found to be statistically significant (99 % level) at least for 2 weeks (up to 18 days) and also having positive CC during week 3 (days 19–25) in CFSv2. The other skill scores like the mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) also had better performance in CFSv2 compared to that of CFSv1. Over the four homogeneous regions of India the forecast skill is found to be better in CFSv2 with almost all four regions with CC significant at 95 % level up to 2 weeks, whereas the CFSv1 forecast had significant CC only over northwest India during week 1 (days 5–11) forecast. The improvement in CFSv2 was very prominent over central India and northwest India compared to other two regions. On the meteorological subdivision level (India is divided into 36 meteorological subdivisions) the percentage of correct category forecast was found to be much higher than the climatology normal forecast in CFSv2 as well as in CFSv1, with CFSv2 being 8–10 % higher in the category of correct to partially correct (one category out) forecast compared to that in CFSv1. Thus, it is concluded that the latest version of CFS coupled model has higher skill in predicting Indian monsoon rainfall on extended range time scale up to about 25 days.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Barker HW, Pincus R, Morcrette J-J (2002) The Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation: application within large-scale models. Extended Abstracts, GCSS-ARM Workshop on the Representation of Cloud Systems in Large-Scale Models, Kananaskis, AB, Canada, GEWEX, 1–10. [Available online at http://www.met.utah.edu/skrueger/gcss-2002/Extended-Abstracts.pdf]

  • Chen TC, Yen MC (1994) Inter-annual variation of the Indian monsoon simulated by the NCAR Community Climate Model: effect of the tropical Pacific SST. J Clim 7:1403–1415

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clough SA, Shephard MW, Mlawer EJ, Delamere JS, Iacono MJ, Cady-Pereira K, Boukabara S, Brown PD (2005) Atmospheric radiative transfer modeling: a summary of the AER codes. J Quant Spectrosc Radiat Transf 91:233–244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De US, Chatterjee SN, Sinha Roy KC (1988) Low frequency mode in summer monsoon circulation over India. Mausam 39:167–178

    Google Scholar 

  • Ek M, Mitchell KE, Lin Y, Rogers E, Grunmann P, Koren V, Gayno G, Tarpley JD (2003) Implementation of Noah land-surface model advances in the NCEP operational mesoscale Eta model. J Geophys Res 108(D22):8851. doi:10.1029/2002JD003296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil S, Asha G (1992) Intraseasonal variation of the summer monsoon: I. Observational aspects. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 70:517–527

    Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil S, Rao PRS (2000) Famine strategies for a variable climate – a challenge. Curr Sci 78:1203–1215

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoyos CD, Webster PJ (2007) The role of intra-seasonal variability in the nature of Asian monsoon precipitation. J Clim 20:4402–4424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klingaman NP, Woolnough SJ, Weller H, Slingo JM (2011) The impact of finer-resolution air–sea coupling on the intraseasonal oscillation of the Indian Monsoon. J Clim 24:2451–2468

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurthy V, Rai S (2011) Predictability of South Asian monsoon circulation in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Adv Geosci 22:65–76

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti TN, Subrahmanyam D (1982) The 30–50-day mode at 850 mb during MONEX. J Atmos Sci 39:2088–2095

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R, Zhang C, Sugi M (2000) Dynamics of breaks in the Indian summer monsoons. J Atmos Sci 57:1354–1372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R, Sundaram S, Swapna P, Kumar V, Ayantika DC, Mujumdar M (2010) Crucial role of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the Indian monsoon anomalous response during dipole events. Climate Dynamics DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0830-2: 1–17

  • Lawrence DM, Webster PJ (2002) The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation: relationship between northward and eastward movement of convection. J Atmos Sci 59:1593–1606

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin H, Brunet G, Derome J (2008) Forecast skill of the Madden–Julian oscillation in two Canadian atmospheric models. Mon Weather Rev 136:4130–4149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz EN (1982) Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus 34:505–513

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madden R, Julian P (1971) Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J Atmos Sci 28:702–708

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madden R, Julian P (1972) Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40–50 day period. J Atmos Sci 29:1109–1123

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madden R, Julian P (1994) Observations of the 40–50 day tropical oscillation: a review. Mon Weather Rev 112:814–837

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell KE, Wei H, Lu S, Gayno G, Meng J (2005) NCEP implements major upgrade to its medium-range global forecast system, including land-surface component. GEWEX newsletter: May 2005

  • Mlawer EJ, Taubman SJ, Brown PD, Iacono MJ, Clough SA (1997) radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated-K model for the longwave. J Geophys Res 102(D14):16,663–16,6832

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murray RJ (1996) Explicit generation of orthogonal grids for ocean models. J Comput Phys 126:251–273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pai DS, Bhan SC (2013) Monsoon 2012 – a report. India Meteorological Department Met. Monograph. Synoptic Meteorology No. 13/2013: 1–193

  • Palmer TN, Brankowic C, Viterbo P, Miller MJ (1992) Modelling interannual variations of summer monsoons. J Clim 5:399–417

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pattanaik DR (2003) The northward moving low frequency mode: a case study of 2001 monsoon season. Mausam 54:937–940

    Google Scholar 

  • Pattanaik DR, Kumar A (2010) Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India using the NCEP climate forecast system. Clim Dyn 34:557–572

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pattanaik DR, Tyagi A, Kumar A (2012a) Dynamical–empirical forecast for the Indian monsoon rainfall using the NCEP Coupled Modelling System – application for real time monsoon forecast. Mausam 63:433–448

    Google Scholar 

  • Pattanaik DR, Mukhopadhyay B, Kumar A (2012b) Monthly forecast of Indian Southwest monsoon rainfall based on NCEP’s coupled forecast system. Atmos Clim Sci 2:479–491. doi:10.4236/acs.2012.24042

    Google Scholar 

  • Pincus R, Barker HW, Morcrette J-J (2003) A fast, flexible, approximate technique for computing radiative transfer in inhomogeneous cloud fields. J Geophys Res 108(D13):4376. doi:10.1029/2002JD003322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pincus R, Batstone CP, Hofmann RJP, Taylor KE, Glecker PJ (2008) Evaluating the present-day simulation of clouds, precipitation, and radiation in climate models. J Geophys Res 113, D14209. doi:10.1029/2007JD009334

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramamurthy K (1969) Monsoon of India: Some aspects of ‘break’ in the Indian South west monsoon during July and August. Forecasting manual, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi: Part IV. 18.3

  • Saha, S. and Coauthors (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society 91: 1015–1057

  • Saha S, Nadiga S, Thiaw C, Wang J, Wang W, Zhang Q, Van den Dool HM, Pan HL, Moorthi S, Behringer D, Stokes D, Pena M, Lord S, White G, Ebisuzki W, Peng P, Xie P (2006) The NCEP climate forecast system. J Clim 19:3483–3517

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saha S, Moorthi S, Wu X, Wang J, Nadiga S, Tripp P, Pan HL, Behringer D, Hou YT, Chuang H, Iredell M, Ek M, Meng J, Yang R, Dool H van den, Zhang Q, Wang W, Chen M (2013a) The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. Journal of Climate, under review

  • Saha SK, Pokhrel S, Chaudhari HS, Dhakate A, Shewale S, Sabeerali CT, Salunke K, Hazra A, Mahapatra S, Rao AS (2013b) Improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon in latest NCEP climate forecast system free run. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.3791

    Google Scholar 

  • Samala BK, Krishnan R, Roxy M (2012) Assessment of one month forecasts of weak Indian monsoons based on the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS). Meteorol Appl 19:189–199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shukla J, Anderson J, Baumhefner D, Brankovic C, Chang Y, Kalnay L, Marx L, Palmer TN, Paolino DA, Ploshay J, Schubert S, Straus DM, Suarez M, Tribbia J (2000) Dynamical seasonal prediction. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:2593–2606

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sikka DR, Gadgil S (1980) On the maximum cloud zone and the ITCZ over Indian longitudes during the southwest monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 108:1840–1853

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh SV, Kripalani RH, Sikka DR (1992) Interannual variability of the Madden–Julian oscillations in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. J Clim 5:973–978

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soman MK, Slingo J (1997) Sensitivity of Asian summer monsoon to aspects of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Q J R Meteorol Soc 123:309–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sperber KR, Palmer TN (1996) Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. J Clim 9:2727–2750

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vitart F, Buizza R, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bidlot J-R, Bonet A, Fuentes M, Hofstadler A, Moleni F, Palmer TN (2008) The new VAREPS-monthly forecasting system: a first step towards seamless prediction. Q J R Meteorol Soc 134:1789–1799

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Lee JY, Kang IS, Shukla J, Park CK, Kumar A, Schemn J, Cocke S, Kug JS, Luo JJ, Zhou T, Wang B, Fu X, Yun WT, Alves O, Jin EK, Kinter J, Kirtman B, Krishnamurti TN, Lau NC, Lau W, Liu P, Pegion P, Rosati T, Schubert S, Stern W, Suarez M, Yamagata T (2009a) Advance and prospects of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004). Clim Dyn 33:93–117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang W, Chen M, Kumar A (2009b) Impacts of ocean surface on the northward propagation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP climate forecast system. J Clim 22:6561–6576

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Hoyos CD (2004) Prediction of monsoon rainfall and river discharge on 15–30 day time scales. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:1745–1765

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wheeler M, Hendon H (2004) An all-season real-time multivariate MJO Index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon Weather Rev 132:1917–1932

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yasunari T (1979) Cloudiness fluctuations associated with the northern hemisphere summer monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 57:227–242

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang C (2005) Madden–Julian Oscillation. Rev Geophys 43:1–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, van den Dool H (2012) Relative merit of model improvement versus availability of retrospective forecasts: the case of climate forecast system MJO prediction. Weather Forecast 27:1045–1051

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We sincerely acknowledge the NCEP for providing the real-time forecast products of their coupled models, which have been used in the present study. The first author is also thankful to the Director General, India Meteorological Department (IMD), for the valuable support in carrying out this work and to the DDGM (NWP) for providing computing facility. Thanks are also due to the National Climate Centre (NCC) and hydrology division of IMD for making available the rainfall data used in the present study.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. India Meteorological Department, Lodhi Road, New Delhi, 110003, India

    D. R. Pattanaik

  2. Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD, USA

    Arun Kumar

Authors
  1. D. R. Pattanaik
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Arun Kumar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to D. R. Pattanaik.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Pattanaik, D.R., Kumar, A. Comparison of intra-seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon between two versions of NCEP coupled models. Theor Appl Climatol 118, 331–345 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1071-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1071-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation