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Recent trends in seasonal and annual precipitation indices in Tuscany (Italy)

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Abstract

Global warming alters the hydrological cycle since a rise in temperature leads to an increase in the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere at a rate of about 7 %/°C. This fact can influence the global, but also local characteristics of precipitation, such as total amount and intensity. Therefore, it is important to study changes in rainfall regime in regions with complex orography, like Tuscany, where there are strong spatial gradients in precipitation amounts. The aim of this study is to look for temporal change in precipitation from 1955 to 2007 searching for spatial differences. Daily data of 21 meteorological stations were analyzed to identify trends in seasonal and annual precipitation indices. Cluster analysis applied to principal components was applied to identify homogeneous groups of stations. A decrease in precipitation was observed at annual time scale, during winter and spring, especially in northwestern areas. Wet days highlighted a decrease in all of Tuscany, due to the same seasons. In northern Tuscany, the decrease in rainfall amount was mainly determined by a lower frequency of rainy events which in turn caused a decrease in the occurrence of extreme daily precipitation events (75th, 90th, and 95th percentile). In central-southern Tuscany, no significant changes were observed except for an increase in precipitation fraction, due to extreme events and in mean daily total amount for wet days. These results are consistent with recent findings for the Mediterranean area and confirm the usefulness of cluster analysis for the analysis of the spatial distribution of precipitation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Consortium LaMMa (Laboratory of Monitoring and Environmental Modelling for the Sustainable Development), Via Madonna del Piano 10, 50019, Sesto Fiorentino, Florence, Italy

    Giorgio Bartolini & Daniele Grifoni

  2. Interdepartmental Centre of Bioclimatology, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144, Florence, Italy

    Alessandro Messeri, Daniele Mannini & Simone Orlandini

  3. Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences, DISPAA, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144, Florence, Italy

    Simone Orlandini

  4. Institute of Biometeorology of the National Research Council (IBIMET-CNR), Via Giovanni Caproni 8, 50145, Florence, Italy

    Daniele Grifoni

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  1. Giorgio Bartolini
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Correspondence to Giorgio Bartolini.

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Bartolini, G., Messeri, A., Grifoni, D. et al. Recent trends in seasonal and annual precipitation indices in Tuscany (Italy). Theor Appl Climatol 118, 147–157 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1053-3

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