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Introducing the decile concept for studying the spatiotemporal characteristics and variability of long-lasting dry and wet periods

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Abstract

Changes in the persistence of dry and wet periods are of particular interest for many sectors, as long-term deviations from normal precipitation strongly affect the water availability. Here, an indicator is introduced to explore variability and trends of long-lasting dry and wet periods by using decile based thresholds. The test of three different thresholds for ending those periods revealed only slight influences of the chosen threshold on the spatiotemporal pattern and trends. The methodology of the deciles indicator is illustrated and studied exemplarily for a spatially highly resolved data set for Saxony, Germany within 1901–2010. Within that region decile wet and dry periods, respectively, occur approximately four times within 10 years, last on average 11 months and cover on average more than 35 % of the stations. Several years to decades long periods with particularly frequent and/or long decile dry or wet periods were identified. The computed trends strongly depend upon the analysis period, as frequency, duration and spatial coverage of decile periods show strong variations up to multi-decadal time scales. Nonetheless, there is some indication that dry period coverage increased within the 20th century, while wet period coverage decreased. However, in the most recent decades the long-term trends reversed.

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Acknowledgements

This work is based on analyses done for the doctorate that was supported by a doctoral scholarship of Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt. The analyses were extended during the joint research project REGKLAM, funded by the German Federal Ministry for education and research (funding code: 01 LR 0802). The author thanks Jörg Matschullat, Anne Schucknecht and Andreas Hoy for their valuable comments on an earlier version of this manuscript. Many thanks also go to Prof. Christian-Dietrich Schönwiese, whose review of the manuscript helped to further improve and clarify the paper.

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  1. TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Interdisciplinary Environmental Research Centre, Brennhausgasse 14, 09599, Freiberg, Germany

    Stephanie Hänsel

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Correspondence to Stephanie Hänsel.

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Hänsel, S. Introducing the decile concept for studying the spatiotemporal characteristics and variability of long-lasting dry and wet periods. Theor Appl Climatol 118, 223–235 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1044-4

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