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Developing climate change scenarios for Tamil Nadu, India using MAGICC/SCENGEN

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Abstract

This paper describes the projection of climate change scenarios under increased greenhouse gas emissions, using the results of atmospheric-ocean general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 dataset. A score is given to every model based on global and regional performance. Four out of 20 general circulation models (GCMs) were selected based on skill in predicting observed annual temperature and precipitation conditions. The ensemble of these four models shows superiority over the individual model scores. These models were subjected to increases in future anthropogenic radiative forcings for constructing climate change scenarios. Future climate scenarios for Tamil Nadu were developed with MAGICC/SCENGEN software. Model results show both temperature and precipitation increases under increased greenhouse gas scenarios. Northeast and northwest parts of Tamil Nadu show a greater increase in temperature and precipitation. Seasonally, the maximum rise in temperature occurred during the MAM season, followed by DJF, JJA, and SON. Decreasing trends of precipitation were observed during DJF and MAM.

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Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India, for providing financial support for this research work under the DST-PURSE scheme (Proceeding no. 11001/PD2/2008).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation Research, College of Engineering Guindy, Anna University, Sardar Patel Road, Chennai, 600 025, Tamil Nadu, India

    Anushiya Jeganathan & Ramachandran Andimuthu

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  1. Anushiya Jeganathan
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  2. Ramachandran Andimuthu
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Correspondence to Anushiya Jeganathan.

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Jeganathan, A., Andimuthu, R. Developing climate change scenarios for Tamil Nadu, India using MAGICC/SCENGEN. Theor Appl Climatol 114, 705–714 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0871-7

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