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Changes in the onset and length of seasons from an ensemble of regional climate models over Spain for future climate conditions

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Abstract

This study analyses the length and onset of the four seasons based on the annual climatic cycle of maximum and minimum temperatures. Previous studies focused over climatically homogeneous mid-high latitude areas, employing fixed temperature thresholds (related to climatic features such as freezing point) that can be inadequate when different climate conditions are present. We propose a method related to the daily minimum and maximum temperature 25th and 75th point-dependent climatic percentiles. It is applied to an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) of 25-km horizontal resolution over the peninsular Spain and Balearic Islands, where a large variety of climatic regimes, from alpine to semi-desertic conditions, are present. First, baseline climate (1961–2000) ERA40-forced RCM simulations are successfully compared with the Spain02 daily observational database, following astronomical season length (around 90 days). This result confirms the validity of the proposed method and capability of the RCMs to describe the seasonal features. Future climate global climate model-forced RCMs (2071–2100) compared with present climate (1961–1990) simulations indicate the disappearance of winter season, a summer enlargement (onset and end) and a slight spring and autumn increase.

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Acknowledgments

This research is funded by the Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha regional government from Spain (2010–2013; Project POII100255-8836). Modelling data are provided by the following: ENSEMBLES project (2004–2009, 6th EU Framework Programme, GOCE-CT-2003-505539) and ESCENA Spanish project (2008–2011, Secretaría de Estado de Cambio Climático, Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente). We are grateful to the Santander Meteorology Group (University of Cantabria) for its analysis of some results that have improved the quality of the work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain

    N. López de la Franca & M. Domínguez

  2. Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Biochemistry, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain

    E. Sánchez

Authors
  1. N. López de la Franca
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  2. E. Sánchez
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  3. M. Domínguez
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Correspondence to N. López de la Franca.

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de la Franca, N.L., Sánchez, E. & Domínguez, M. Changes in the onset and length of seasons from an ensemble of regional climate models over Spain for future climate conditions. Theor Appl Climatol 114, 635–642 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0868-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0868-2

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