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Vegetation patterns in South America associated with rising CO2: uncertainties related to sea surface temperatures

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Abstract

Spatially precise forecasts of the impacts of climate change on the distribution of major vegetation types are essential for the implementation of effective conservation and land use policy. However, existing studies frequently omit major sources of climate variability that can significantly increase the uncertainty of projections. In this study we demonstrate how different predictions for sea surface temperature (SST) for the first half of the twenty-first century increase the uncertainty associated with forecasts of the future distribution of major ecosystems in South America. This is demonstrated through a numerical experiment using a coupled climate–vegetation model (CCM3-IBIS) for IPCC emission scenario A2 that incorporates the SST data from ten different models. The study reveals an increasing uncertainty in the ability to forecast future vegetation patterns, such that by 2050 the simulation is unable to robustly forecast the vegetation cover in an area equivalent to 28 % in South America (5 × 106 km2). The future of the central and northeastern regions of Brazil is especially uncertain, with outcomes, ranging from savanna, and open shrubland to grassland. Recognizing and managing such uncertainty should be a priority for decision makers.

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Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the financial support by the Amazonas and Minas Gerais State Research Funding Agencies (FAPEAM, FAPEMIG), and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. The paper was read and edited by Dr. Richard Ladle, Oxford University.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Institute for Amazonian Research (INPA) and Amazon State University (UEA), Av. André Araújo, 2936, Bairro Aleixo, 69060-000, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil

    Marcos Paulo Santos Pereira

  2. Department of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Viçosa (UFV), Av. P. H. Rolfs, s/n Campus Universitário, 36570-000, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil

    Marcos Heil Costa

  3. Institute of Biological Sciences and Health, Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL), Praça Afrânio Jorge, s/n, Prado, Maceió, Alagoas, 57010-020, Brazil

    Ana Cláudia Mendes Malhado

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  1. Marcos Paulo Santos Pereira
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  2. Marcos Heil Costa
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  3. Ana Cláudia Mendes Malhado
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Correspondence to Marcos Paulo Santos Pereira.

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Pereira, M.P.S., Costa, M.H. & Malhado, A.C.M. Vegetation patterns in South America associated with rising CO2: uncertainties related to sea surface temperatures. Theor Appl Climatol 111, 569–576 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0683-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0683-1

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