Mann–Kendall trend analysis of tropospheric ozone and its modeling using ARIMA
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The present work reports studies on the spatial distribution of tropospheric ozone extending over both southern and northern hemispheres. This study is based on a univariate approach to the spatial data series obtained at regular spatial intervals. Mann–Kendall's (MK) trend analysis has been carried out to discern the trend within the spatial distribution of the tropospheric ozone, and it has been observed that in all seasons, except monsoon (JJAS), there is a linear trend within the spatial distribution. Studying both monthly and seasonal behavior through autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), it has been revealed that ARIMA (0,2,2) can be used as a representative of the spatially distributed tropospheric ozone over southern and northern hemispheres. The representative model has been confirmed through the study of Willmott's index and prediction yield.
KeywordsOzone Tropospheric Ozone ARIMA Model Total Column Ozone Autoregressive Integrate Moving Average
The first and the third authors wish to sincerely acknowledge the warm hospitality provided by Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUCAA), Pune, India where a major portion of the work was carried out during a scientific visit in January, 2012. Sincere thanks are due to the anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions.
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