Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Estimated changes in wind speed and wind power density over the western High Plains, 1971–2000

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This manuscript presents the results of research on the temporal patterns in wind speed and wind power density from 1971 to 2000. The study area is across the western High Plains states east of the Rocky Mountains in an area which has a proven wind power resource. Policies and economic analyses involving the rapidly expanding wind power industry have often assumed a constant in the wind resource; however, any temporal pattern or trend in wind speeds can have a meaningful impact on the reliability of wind power as an energy resource. Using data provided by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to analyze decadal and seasonal trends of wind data, this study shows that from 1971 to 2000 there were some notable changes in the NARCCAP simulated wind velocities over the study region. Wind speed trends across the central High Plains of the USA were most notable across the western portion of the study area along the higher terrain near the front range of the Rocky Mountains. The most significant changes occurred during winter and spring when a large portion of the study area experienced the most substantial decrease in wind speed, with a 20% reduction in wind power density during spring across the western portion of the study area. During summer and fall, the trends are less noticeable, with only very small changes in the summer. Fall was the only season that saw widespread increased values of wind power density from the 1970s to 1990s, with increases of nearly 10% in some southern areas of the study area. Based upon the analysis of the data and previous literature, it is theorized that these changes could be the result of changing synoptic patterns across the study region.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Archer CL, Jacobson MZ (2003) Spatial and temporal distributions of U.S. winds and wind power at 80 m derived from measurements. J Geophys Res 108(D9):4289

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Archer CL, Jacobson MZ (2005) Evaluation of global wind power. J Geophys Res 110:D12110

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beniston M, Stephenson DB, Christensen OB, Ferro CAT, Fre C, Goyette S, Halsnaes K, Holt T, Jylhä K, Koffi B, Palutikof J, Schöll R, Semmler T, Woth K (2007) Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Clim Chang 81:71–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delworth TL, Broccoli AJ, Rosati A, Stouffer RJ, Balaji V, Beesley JA, Cooke WF, Dixon KW, Dunne J, Dunne KA, Durachta JW, Findell KL, Ginoux P, Gnanadesikan A, Gordon CT, Griffies SM, Gudgel R, Harrison MJ, Held IM, Hemler RS, Horowitz LW, Klein SA, Knutson T, Kushner PJ, Langenhorst AR, Lee H, Lin S, Lu J, Malyshev SL, Milly PCD, Ramaswamy V, Russell J, Schwatzkopf MD, Shevliakova E, Sirutis JJ, Spelman MJ, Stern WF, Winton M, Wittenberg AT, Wyman B, Zeng F, Zhang R (2006) GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: formulation and simulation characteristics. J Clim 19:643–674

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elliott DL, Holladay CG, Barchet WR, Foote HP, Sandusky WF (1986) Wind energy resource atlas of the United States, DOE/CH 10093-4. http://www.pnl.gov:2080/

  • Fox NI (2011) A tall tower study of Missouri winds. Renew Energy 36(1):330–337

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gans F, Miller L, Kleidon A (2010) The problem of the second wind turbine—a note on a common but flawed wind power estimation method. Earth Syst Dynam Discuss 1:103–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao YH, Vano JA, Zhu CM, Lettenmaier DP (2011) Evaluating climate change over the Colorado River basin using regional climate models J Geophys Res 116(D13104)

  • Greene JS, McNabb K, Zwilling R, Morrissey M, Stadler S (2009) Analysis of vertical wind shear in the Southern Great Plains and potential impacts on estimation of wind energy production. Int J Global Energy Issues 23(1):191–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greene JS, Morrissey M, Johnson SE (2010) Wind climatology, climate change, and wind energy. Geogr Compass 4:1592–1605

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gutowski, William J et al (2010) Regional extreme monthly precipitation simulated by NARCCAP RCMs. J Hydrometeor 11:1373–1379

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jangamshetti S, Rau H, Guruprasada V (1999) Height extrapolation of capacity factors for wind turbine generators. IEEE Power Eng Rev 19:48–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang Y, Luo Y, Zhao ZC (2010) Changes in wind speed over China during 1956–2994. Theor Appl Climatol 99(3–4):421–430

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klink K (1999) Trends in mean monthly maximum and minimum surface wind speeds in the conterminous United States, 1962 to 1990. Clim Res 13:193–205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klink K (2002) Trends in and interannual variability of wind speed distributions in Minnesota. J Clim 15:3311–3317

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klink K (2007) Atmospheric circulation effects on wind speed variability at turbine Height. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 46:445–456

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lubitz WD (2006) Accuracy of vertically extrapolating meteorological tower wind speed measurements. Canadian Wind Energy Association Annual Conference, 2006, Winnipeg, MB, Canada, Oct

  • McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Davey CA, Pielke RA Sr (2000) Climate data continuity with ASOS: report for period April 1996 through June 2000, 82. Colorado Climate Center, Fort Collins

    Google Scholar 

  • McVicar TR, Van Neil TG, Roderick ML, Li LL, Mo XG, Zimmermann NE, Schmatz DR (2010) Observational evidence from two mountainous regions that near surface wind speeds are declining more rapidly at higher elevations than at lower elevations. Geophys Res Lett 37:1960–2006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mearns LO et al (2007) The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dataset, updated 2011, National Center for Atmospheric Research Earth System Grid data portal, Boulder, CO. http://www.earthsystemgrid.org/browse/viewProject.htm?projectId=ff3949c8-2008-45c8-8e27-5834f54be50f

  • Mearns LO, Gutowski WJ, Jones R, Leung L-Y, McGinnis S, Nunes AMB, Qian Y (2009) A regional climate change assessment program for North America. Eos 90:311–312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morrissey ML, Albers A, Greene JS, Postawko SE (2010a) An isofactorial change-of-scale model for the wind speed probability density function. J Atmos Ocean Technol 27(2):257–273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morrissey ML, Cook WE, Greene JS (2010b) An improved method for estimating the wind power density function. J Atmos Ocean Technol 27(7):1153–1164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NARCCAP (2011) Time-slice experiments. http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/about/timeslices.html

  • Oklahoma Wind Power Initiative (OWPI) (2000) Calculation of wind power density. http://www.seic.okstate.edu. Accessed Nov 2011

  • Pryor SC, Barthelmie RJ (2010) Climate change impacts on wind energy: a review. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 14:430–437

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pryor SC, Schoof JT, Barthelmie RJ (2006) Winds of change? Projections of near surface winds under climate change scenarios. J Geophys Res 33, L11702

  • Pryor SC, Barthelmie RJ, Young DT, Takle ES, Arritt RW, Flory D, Gutowski WJ Jr, Nunes A, Roads J (2009) Wind speed trends over the contiguous United States. J Geophys Res 114, D14105

  • Ray ML, Rogers AL, McGowan JG (2006) Analysis of wind shear models and trends in different terrain. Conference Proceeding: American Wind Energy Association Windpower, 2006, Pittsburgh, PA, June 2–7

  • Schwartz M, Elliott D (2006) Wind shear characteristics at central plains tall towers. Conference Proceedings: American Wind Energy Association Windpower 2006, Pittsburgh, PA, June 2–7

  • AWS Truepower (2011) “WindNavigator” wind resource map. http://www.windnavigator.com/

  • Tuller SE (2004) Measured wind speed trends on the west coast of Canada. Int J Climatol 24:1359–1374

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • US Department of Energy (2008) 20% wind energy by 2030: increasing wind energy’s contribution to U.S. electric supply. US Department of Energy, Golden. DOE/GO-102008-2567

  • Yan Z, Bate S, Chandler RE, Isham V, Wheater H (2006) Changes in extreme wind speeds in NW Europe simulated by generalized linear models. Theor Appl Climatol 83:121–137

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We wish to thank the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for providing the data used in this paper. NARCCAP is funded by the National Science Foundation, the US Department of Energy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the US Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development. We would also like to thank the Oklahoma EDGE program, the US Department of Energy, and Oklahoma Department of Commerce for help in funding the research.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA

    J. Scott Greene

  2. Oklahoma Wind Power Initiative, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA

    Matthew Chatelain

  3. School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA

    Mark Morrissey

  4. Department of Geography, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, USA

    Steve Stadler

Authors
  1. J. Scott Greene
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Matthew Chatelain
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Mark Morrissey
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Steve Stadler
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to J. Scott Greene.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Greene, J.S., Chatelain, M., Morrissey, M. et al. Estimated changes in wind speed and wind power density over the western High Plains, 1971–2000. Theor Appl Climatol 109, 507–518 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0596-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0596-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation