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Long-term precipitation variability in the Ionian Islands, Greece (Central Mediterranean): climatic signal analysis and future projections

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Abstract

The present study examines the variability of the precipitation regime across the Ionian Islands complex, Greece (Central Mediterranean), for a period spanning more than one century. Significant negative long-term linear trends in the annual precipitation totals are observed, more pronounced in the southern parts of the studied area, while a climatic discontinuity possibly occurred during the 1970s, manifested first in the southern Ionian. Statistically significant nonlinear trends and subdecadal intermittent oscillations were detected using Monte Carlo singular spectral analysis. The correlation of the winter precipitation variability at Ionian complex with the North Atlantic Oscillation anomalies was also investigated and extended in the frequency domain. Finally, future projections were performed using an ensemble of Regional Climatic Models. Model simulations suggested a decrease of the order of ∼20% or more in the mean annual precipitation of the area by the end of the century.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and to the Ufficio Idrografico e Mareografico, Settore Protezione Civile for providing precipitation data for the Ionian region (Greece) and for the Puglia region (Italia). We also acknowledge the contribution of the unknown reviewers for helpful suggestions and recommendations in the manuscript.

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  1. Department of Environmental Technology and Ecology, Technological and Educational Institute of the Ionian Islands, Kalvos Sq.2, 29100, Zakynthos, Greece

    A. Kalimeris

  2. Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece

    D. Founda, C. Giannakopoulos & F. Pierros

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  1. A. Kalimeris
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Kalimeris, A., Founda, D., Giannakopoulos, C. et al. Long-term precipitation variability in the Ionian Islands, Greece (Central Mediterranean): climatic signal analysis and future projections. Theor Appl Climatol 109, 51–72 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0550-5

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