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Persistence and long-term memories of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in southern South America

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Abstract

The persistence and long-term memories in daily maximum and minimum temperature series during the instrumental period in southern South America were analysed. Here, we found a markedly seasonal pattern both for short- and long-term memories that can lead to enhanced predictability on intraseasonal timescales. In addition, well-defined spatial patterns of these properties were found in the region. Throughout the entire region, the strongest dependence was observed in autumn and early winter. In the Patagonia region only, the temperatures exhibited more memory during the spring. In general, these elements indicate that nonlinear interactions exist between the annual cycles of temperature and its anomalies. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal behaviour of these long-term memories can be used in the building of stochastic models that only use persistence. It is possible to propose two objective forecast models based on linear interactions associated with persistence and one that allows for the use of information from nonlinear interactions that are manifested in the form of forerunners.

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Acknowledgments

This research was sponsored by projects UBA X-228, CONICET PIP 112-200801-00762, and FONCyT PICT 2008-1820

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Scientific and Technological Research Council (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Gustavo Naumann, Walter M. Vargas & Juan L. Minetti

  2. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Gustavo Naumann & Walter M. Vargas

  3. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán (UNT), San Miguel de Tucumán, Argentina

    Juan L. Minetti

  4. F.C.E. y N. Universidad de Buenos Aires, Intendente Güiraldes 2160-Pab II, 2nd floor, Buenos Aires, C1428EGA, Argentina

    Gustavo Naumann

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  1. Gustavo Naumann
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  2. Walter M. Vargas
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  3. Juan L. Minetti
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Correspondence to Gustavo Naumann.

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Naumann, G., Vargas, W.M. & Minetti, J.L. Persistence and long-term memories of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in southern South America. Theor Appl Climatol 105, 341–355 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0395-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0395-3

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