Abstract
The El Niño phenomenon is the Earth’s strongest climatic fluctuation on an interannual timescale and has a quasi-global impact, although originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean. A very strong El Niño is recognized to cause extreme dryness and wetness in different parts of the world. We show that all the eight well-documented influenza pandemics, starting from the first certain one documented in ad 1580, originated in China and in Russia, a few years after the occurrence of a very strong or after a prolonged strong/moderate El Niño event. At present, the next El Niño will probably occur at the beginning of 2013 (Mazzarella et al. Theor Appl Climatol 100:23–27, 2010), and this forecast may suggest to be well prepared to take appropriate precautionary epidemiological measures.
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Mazzarella, A., Giuliacci, A. & Pregliasco, F. Hypothesis on a possible role of El Niño in the occurrence of influenza pandemics. Theor Appl Climatol 105, 65–69 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0375-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0375-7