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Multiyear hindcast simulations of summer monsoon over South Asia using a nested regional climate model—BCC_RegCM1.0

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Abstract

Multiyear (1983–2006) hindcast simulation of summer monsoon over South Asia has been carried out using the regional climate model of the Beijing Climate Centre (BCC_RegCM1.0). The regional climate model (hereafter BCC RCM) is nested into the global climate model of the Beijing Climate Centre BCC_CGCM1.0 (here after CGCM). The regional climate model is initialized on 01 May and integrated up to the end of the September for 24 years. Compared to the driving CGCM the BCC RCM reproduces reasonably well the intensity and magnitude of the large-scale features associated with the South Asia summer monsoon such as the upper level anticyclone at 200 hPa, the mid-tropospheric warming over the Tibetan plateau, the surface heat low and the 850 hPa moisture transport from ocean to the land. Both models, i.e., BCC RCM and the driving CGCM overestimates (underestimates) the 850 hPa southwesterly flow over the northern (southern) Arabian Sea. Moreover, both models overestimate the seasonal mean precipitation over much of the South Asia region compared to the observations. However, the precipitation biases are significantly reduced in the BCC RCM simulations. Furthermore, both models simulate reasonably the interannual variability of the summer monsoon over India. The precipitation index simulated by BCC RCM shows significant correlation (0.62) with the observed one. The BCC RCM simulates reasonably well the spatial and temporal variation of the precipitation and surface air temperature compared to the driving CGCM. Further, the temperature biases are significantly reduced (1–4°C) in the BCC RCM simulations. The simulated vertical structure of the atmosphere show biases above the four sub-regions, however, these biases are significantly reduced in the BCC RCM simulations compared to the driving CGCM. Compared to the driving CGCM, the evolution processes of the onset of summer monsoon, e.g., the meridional temperature gradient and the vertical wind shear are well simulated by the BCC RCM. The 24-year simulations also show that with a little exception the BCC RCM is capable to reproduce the monsoon active and break phases and the intraseasonal precipitation variation over the Indian subcontinent.

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Acknowledgments

The author would like to express sincere thanks to the Beijing Climate Centre (BCC) for providing funding to visit and work in BCC particularly on the above issue of seasonal prediction over south Asia region. The authors are also very much thankful to Dr. Wolfgang Müller from Max Planck Institute for Meteorology for his suggestions on the first draft of the manuscript. Finally, the authors are grateful to the esteemed reviewers for their worthy comments and suggestions which immensely helped in improving this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Sajjad Saeed & Ghulam Rasul

  2. Global Change Impact Studies Centre, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Sajjad Saeed

  3. Beijing Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

    Yiming Liu

  4. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany

    Sajjad Saeed

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  1. Sajjad Saeed
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Correspondence to Sajjad Saeed.

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Saeed, S., Liu, Y. & Rasul, G. Multiyear hindcast simulations of summer monsoon over South Asia using a nested regional climate model—BCC_RegCM1.0. Theor Appl Climatol 103, 249–264 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0297-4

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