Summary
The spatial and temporal variability of winter extreme low-temperature events and summer extreme high-temperature events was investigated using daily air temperature series (1960–2004) from 66 sites in the Yellow River basin, China, with the help of Mann–Kendall trend test method. In this study an extreme temperature event is defined by exceeding or falling below various threshold values of daily maximum and daily minimum air temperature: 90th percentile, 95th percentile for the high-temperature events; 10th percentile and 5th percentile for the low-temperature events. The analysis results indicate that: 1) significant upward trend of frequency and intensity of the high-temperature events is found in the stations in the west and north part of the Yellow River basin, but trends in most stations in the middle and lower Yellow River basin are not significant at >95% confidence level; 2) almost the whole Yellow River basin is dominated by the significant downward trend of frequency of the cold events. Stations featured by the increasing winter minimum temperature are also more than those featured by changing summer maximum temperature; and 3) annual warming trend in the Yellow River basin mainly results from the increase in winter minimum temperature. Significant warming in the upper reach of the Yellow River will be likely to threaten the availability of the water resource in the whole basin, which should draw certain concerns from local policy-makers and water resource management agency in the region.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
M Beniston DB Stephenson (2004) ArticleTitleExtreme climatic events and their evolution under changing climatic conditions Global Planet Change 44 1–9 Occurrence Handle10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.001
BR Bonsal X Zhang LA Vincent WD Hogg (2001) ArticleTitleCharacteristics of daily extreme temperatures over Canada J Climate 14 1959–1976 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1959:CODAET>2.0.CO;2
I Bordi K Fraedrich M Petitta A Sutera (2006) ArticleTitleExtreme value analysis of wet and dry periods in Sicily Theor Appl Climatol 87 61–71 Occurrence Handle10.1007/s00704-005-0195-3
W Brutsaert (2006) ArticleTitleIndications of increasing land surface evaporation during the second half of the 20th century Geophys Res Lett 33 L20403 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2006GL027532
TA Buishand (1982) ArticleTitleSome methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records J Hydrol 58 11–27 Occurrence Handle10.1016/0022-1694(82)90066-X
LX Chen WQ Zhu (1998) ArticleTitleStudy on climate change of China over the past 45 years Acta Meteorologica Sinica 56 IssueID3 257–271
Y Chen G Gao GY Ren YM Liao (2005) ArticleTitleSpatial and temporal variation of precipitation over ten major river basins in China between 1956 and 2000 J Nat Resour 20 IssueID5 637–643
Y Ding G Ren G Shi (2006) ArticleTitleNational assessment report of climate change (1): climate change in China and its future trend Adv Climate Change Res 2 IssueID1 1–8
DR Easterling JL Evans PY Groisman TR Karl KE Kunkel P Ambenje (2000) ArticleTitleObserved variability and trends in extreme climate events Bull Amer Meteor Soc 81 417–425 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0417:OVATIE>2.3.CO;2
D Founda KH Papadopoulos M Petrakis C Giannakopoulos P Good (2004) ArticleTitleAnalysis of mean, maximum, and minimum temperature in Athens from 1897–2001 with emphasis on the last decade: trends, warm events, and cold events Global Planet Change 44 27–38 Occurrence Handle10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.003
DJ Gaffen RJ Ross (1998) ArticleTitleIncreased summertime heat stress in the US Nature 396 529–530 Occurrence Handle10.1038/25030
CT Haan (2002) Statistical methods in hydrology (second version) Blackwell Publishing Iowa State
InstitutionalAuthorNameIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang (IPCC) (2001) Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis Cambridge University Press Cambridge 782–787
PD Jones EB Horton CK Folland M Hulme DE Parker TA Basnett (1999) ArticleTitleThe use of indices to identify changes in climatic extremes Climatic Change 42 131–149 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1005468316392
TR Karl DR Easterling (1999) ArticleTitleClimate extremes: selected review and future research directions Climatic Change 42 309–325 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1005436904097
MG Kendall (1975) Rank correlation methods Griffin London, UK
KE Kunkel RA Pritke SA Changnon (1999) ArticleTitleTemporal fluctuation in weather and climate extremes that cause economic and human health impacts – a review Bull Amer Meteor Soc 80 1077–1098 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<1077:TFIWAC>2.0.CO;2
HB Mann (1945) ArticleTitleNonparametric tests against trend Econometrica 13 245–259 Occurrence Handle10.2307/1907187
MJ Manton PM Della-Marta MR Haylock KJ Hennessy N Nicholls LE Chambers DA Collins G Daw A Finet D Gunawan K Inape H Isobe TS Kestin P Lafale CH Leyu T Lwin L Maitrepierre N Ouprasitwong CM Page J Pahalad N Plummer MJ Salinger R Suppiah VL Tran B Trewin I Tibig D Yee (2001) ArticleTitleTrends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southern Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998 Int J Climatol 21 269–284 Occurrence Handle10.1002/joc.610
L Menzel G Bürger (2002) ArticleTitleClimate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany) J Hydrol 267 53–64 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00139-7
HA Nasrallah E Nieplova E Ramadan (2004) ArticleTitleWarm season extreme temperature events in Kuwait J Arid Environ 56 357–371 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0140-1963(03)00007-7
GY Ren MZ Xu ZY Chu J Guo Q Li XN Liu Y Wang (2005) ArticleTitleChanges of surface air temperature in China during 1951–2004 Climate Environm Res 10 IssueID4 717–727
MJ Salinger GM Griffiths (2001) ArticleTitleTrends in New Zealand daily temperature and rainfall extremes Int J Climatol 21 1437–1452 Occurrence Handle10.1002/joc.694
GQ Wang YZ Wang ZH Shi LL Kang HB Li (2001) ArticleTitleAnalysis on water resources variation tendency in the Yellow River Sci Geographica Sinica 21 IssueID5 396–400
WMO (1997) WMO statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 1996, WMO No. 858. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization
Z Yan PD Jones TD Davies A Moberg H Bergström D Camuffo C Cocheo M Maugeri GR Demaree T Verhoeve E Thoen M Barriendos R Rodriguez J Martin-Vide C Yang (2002) ArticleTitleTrends of extreme temperatures in Europe and China based on daily observations Climate Change 53 355–392 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1014939413284
S Yue CY Wang (2002) ArticleTitleApplicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test Water Resour Res 38 IssueID6 1068 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2001WR000861
S Yue P Pilon G Cavadias (2002) ArticleTitlePower of the Mann-Kendall test and the Spearman’s rho test for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological time series J Hydrol 259 254–271 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00594-7
P Zhai X Pan (2003) ArticleTitleTrends in temperature extremes during 1951–1999 in China Geophys Res Lett 30 IssueID17 1913 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2003GL018004
Zhang Q, Gemmer M, Chen JQ (2006a) Flood/drought variation and flood risk in the Yangtze Delta, China. Quaternary International, doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2006.11.004
Q Zhang CL Liu C-Y Xu (2006b) ArticleTitleObserved trends of annual maximum water level and streamflow during past 130 years in the Yangtze River basin, China J Hydrol 324 255–265 Occurrence Handle10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.09.023
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Correspondence: Qiang Zhang, Department of Geography and Resource Management, Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, NT, Hong Kong, China
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, Q., Xu, CY., Zhang, Z. et al. Climate change or variability? The case of Yellow river as indicated by extreme maximum and minimum air temperature during 1960–2004. Theor Appl Climatol 93, 35–43 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0328-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0328-y