Summary
A comparative study was performed to evaluate the performance of the UK Met Office’s Global Seasonal (GloSea) prediction General Circulation Model (GCM) for the forecast of maximum surface air temperature (Tmax) over the Indian region using the model generated hindcast of 15-members ensemble for 16 years (1987–2002). Each hindcast starts from 1st January and extends for a period of six months in each year. The model hindcast Tmax is compared with Tmax obtained from verification analysis during the hot weather season on monthly and seasonal scales from March to June.
The monthly and seasonal model hindcast climatology of Tmax from 240 members during March to June and the corresponding observed climatology show highly significant (above 99.9% level) correlation coefficients (CC) although the hindcast Tmax is over-estimated (warm bias) over most parts of the Indian region. At the station level over New Delhi, although the forecast error (forecast-observed) at the monthly scale gradually increases from March to June, the forecast error at the seasonal scale during March to May (MAM) is found to be just 1.67 °C. The GloSea model also simulates well Tmax anomalies on monthly and seasonal scales during March to June with the lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of bias corrected forecast (less than 1.2 °C), which is much less than the corresponding RMSE of climatology (reference) forecast. The anomaly CCs (ACCs) over the station in New Delhi are also highly significant (above 95% level) on monthly to seasonal time scales from March to June, except for April.
The skill of the GloSea model for the seasonal forecast of Tmax as measured from the ACC map and the bias corrected RMSE map is reasonably good during MAM and April to June (AMJ) with higher ACC (significant at 95% level) and lower RMSE (less than 1.5 °C) found over many parts of the Indian regions.
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Authors’ addresses: D. R. Pattanaik, H. R. Hatwar, G. Srinivasan, Y. V. Ramarao, India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi, India; U. C. Mohanty, P. Sinha, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India; Anca Brookshaw, UK Met Office, UK.
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Pattanaik, D., Mohanty, U., Hatwar, H. et al. Simulation of maximum surface air temperature over India using the UK Met Office Global Seasonal (GloSea) Model. Theor Appl Climatol 92, 165–179 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0320-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0320-6