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Lag-relationship between mid-tropospheric geopotential heights over the Northern Hemisphere and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: Implications for forecasting

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Summary

In this study the relationship between mid-tropospheric geopotential heights over the Northern Hemisphere (20° N to 90° N, around the globe) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR: June to September total rainfall) have been examined. For this purpose, the monthly 500 hPa geopotential heights in a 2.5° lat./lon. grid over the Northern Hemisphere and the ISMR data for the period 1958 to 2003 have been used.

The analysis demonstrates a dipole structure in the correlation pattern over the East Pacific Ocean in the month of January which intensifies in February and weakens in March.

The average 500 hPa geopotential height over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean during February (index one), has a significant positive relationship (r = 0.72) with the ISMR. In addition, the surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly over North-west Eurasia during January (index two) is found to be strongly related with the subsequent summer monsoon rainfall. These relationships are found to be consistent and robust during the period of analysis and these indices are found to be independent of each other.

Hence, using index one and index two, a multiple linear regression model is developed for the prediction of the ISMR and the empirical relationships are verified on independent data. The forecast of the ISMR, using the above model, is found to be satisfactory.

The dipole structure in the correlation pattern over the East Pacific region during February weakens once the ENSO (El-Nino and Southern Oscillation) events are excluded from the analysis. This suggests that the dipole type relationship between mid-tropospheric geopotential heights over the East Pacific Ocean and the ISMR may be a manifestation of the ENSO cycle.

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  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

    S. D. Bansod

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Bansod, S. Lag-relationship between mid-tropospheric geopotential heights over the Northern Hemisphere and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: Implications for forecasting. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 82, 143–152 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-005-0126-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-005-0126-3

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