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Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological variables of Islamabad, Pakistan: a spatio-temporal view from Pothohar region

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Abstract

The implications of climate change on water resources are of major concerns worldwide. Arid regions of the world need proper management for the water resources as climatic changes are bringing severe problems for their sustainability. Pothohar area of Pakistan is the most essential in this regard. A data set of 30 years of temperature, precipitation, and river discharge across the Pothohar Plateau were obtained from Pakistan Meteorological Department and Water and Power Development Authority, respectively. Hydro-meteorological data were subjected to a series of statistical methods for detecting trend and abrupt point changes. A rising trend in mean annual temperatures were noticed in all stations with most significant change in Jhelum and Attock stations (p < 0.05) during the period of 30 years while precipitation trends were found irregular, representing both scenarios of flash floods and droughts with non-significant change (p > 0.05). In addition, 2000 and 2001 are drought years in 30 years of time series, and the driest years were seen from 1999 to 2002. The discharge of River Haro and Soan were found downward significantly (p > 0.05), posing a threatening challenge to the future of water resources in this area. The correlation coefficient test revealed a substantial relationship between mean annual precipitation and river discharge, although the linear regression model demonstrated a diminishing trend with mean annual precipitation. Based on the analysis, it is concluded that modern techniques of irrigation and agriculture should be adopted to protect the future of the Pothohar area from climate change related extreme situations.

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Data availability

The data sets of this study are available from Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) and Irrigation Department of Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). Without permission to the concerned departments, restrictions are imposed publically to the availability of these data files. However, data are available from authors upon reasonable request and with permission of PMD and WAPDA.

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Acknowledgements

We are thankful to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and Irrigation Department of Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) for the acquisition of the hydro-meteorological data and entire support during the study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Prime Institute of Public Health, Prime Foundation, Riphah International University, Islamabad, 25120, Pakistan

    Salma Khalid

  2. Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Haripur, Haripur, 22620, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

    Alia Naz, Zia ur Rahman & Tahira Naz

  3. Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, 25120, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

    Nowsher Yousaf

  4. Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Lakki Marwat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 28420, Pakistan

    Javaid Iqbal

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  1. Salma Khalid
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Correspondence to Salma Khalid.

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Khalid, S., Naz, A., Rahman, Z.u. et al. Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological variables of Islamabad, Pakistan: a spatio-temporal view from Pothohar region. Meteorol Atmos Phys 135, 30 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00970-5

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