Abstract
As one of the most populated agricultural habitats in the world, Southeast Asia has been highly exposed to extremes of weather and climate, posing great importance to figure out the trend and variability characteristics of extremes over there. The annual extreme precipitation and temperature over Southeast Asia during 1981–2017 are analyzed in this study using datasets based on daily observations derived from thousands of meteorological stations. Results show that the wet extremes decrease over the areas surrounding the South China Sea and increase over the south of the Philippines and Indonesia with the most significant trends detected over the east of Indochina and New Guinea. Extreme high temperatures decrease significantly over the middle of New Guinea and increase over Indochina, Sumatra, Java, and Kalimantan. Moreover, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses show that the first principal components for most precipitation extremes are characterized by significant decadal changes relevant to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the second principal components exhibit significant interannual variability associated with oceanic systems such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As for temperature extremes, the leading EOF modes show non-significant trends or decadal variations, but significant interannual variations related to ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole are detected.
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Data availability
Raw observations data were provided by the Southeast Asia Climate Assessment and Dataset project at http://sacad.database.bmkg.go.id/. Monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data are derived from U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Extended Reconstructed SST V5 at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html. Geopotential height and wind datasets are obtained from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 at https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573. The monthly series of the large-scale oceanic systems indices are obtained from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Physical Sciences Laboratory at https://psl.noaa.gov.
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Acknowledgements
This work is jointly supported by Grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 42025502; 42105030; 42005015), the Natural Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China (21KJB170005) and the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK20200814). We also thank the support from the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST.
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Fan, Y., Li, J., Zhu, S. et al. Trends and variabilities of precipitation and temperature extremes over Southeast Asia during 1981–2017. Meteorol Atmos Phys 134, 78 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00913-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00913-6