Abstract
Understanding the multi-dimensional drought variation and its driving mechanism is essentially important in climate change and risk assessment. Based on the monthly meteorological data at 321 stations from northern China, this study computed the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which was estimated using the potential evapotranspiration (PET) with the Penman–Monteith equation. Drought displayed the wetting trend in 1961–2017 at a rate of 0.05/10a, which generally occurred in winter and in most study areas. In contrast, the apparent drying trend occurred on the Loess Plateau. The piecewise linear regression method (LRM) identified that the turning point (TP) for trends occurred in 1990; the annual SPEI had been increasing pre-1990 and decreasing post-1990. This was especially the case in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Tibet, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia, consistent with patterns of seasonal drought at their respective TP apart from autumn. From 1961 to 2017, the drought-affected area decreased at a rate of − 1.69%/10a (p < 0.05). The area decreased before the TP and increased after the TP at different drought levels. The seasonal drought-affected area also showed decreasing trend, particularly in winter. The highest frequency and duration of drought occurred in the Loess Plateau and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, respectively, although it decreased post-1990. These findings suggest that long-term trends in drought were not significant in northern China during 1961–2017. Although the severity, frequency, and duration of drought decreased post-1990, the recent increasing drying trend and drought-affected area should not be dismissed.
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Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the editor, anonymous reviewers and dataset support of this paper. The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest in this paper. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 41977412, U1910207, U1810101, 41871193]; the Science and Technology Innovation Project of Universities in Shanxi Province [grant number 2020L0014]. The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Yu, L., Wu, Z., Liu, Y. et al. Does drought show a significant weakening trend from 1961 to 2017 in northern China?. Meteorol Atmos Phys 134, 31 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00860-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00860-2