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Quasi-operational forecast guidance of extremely severe cyclonic storm Fani over the Bay of Bengal using high-resolution mesoscale models

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Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) “Fani” (April 26–May 04, 2019) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is the first extreme severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) of the season that struck Puri coast with a maximum sustained wind speed of 110 knots. In the past 130 years, TC Fani is the first of its kind with the peculiarity of being persistent with the intensity of severe cyclonic storm (SCS) over land for more than 24 h, thus causing substantial casualties in the major cities of Odisha. Two high-resolution mesoscale modeling systems, (1) state-of-the-art advanced research version of weather research and forecasting (WRF-ARW) model with a single fixed domain (9 km horizontal resolution) and (2) TC specific hurricane WRF (HWRF) with three domains (27/9/3 km horizontal resolution) are used for real-time prediction of Fani in quasi-operational setup. Storms surge prediction is also carried out using IIT Delhi dynamical storm surge model. Both the models, WRF and HWRF, were able to predict the system from its genesis stage (5 days in advance of landfall) with reasonable accuracy in position and strength. The tracks from both models are in good agreement with the observed track. The average track errors for WRF and HWRF are 101 km and 85 km, respectively. The landfall time and position are well predicted, with 60 h of lead time. HWRF model performance in predicting landfall time, position, and intensity is significant. Along with the statistical analysis, structural and vertical analysis of wind, enthalpy flux, and thermal distribution are carried out by considering two represented initial conditions from both WRF and HWRF models. Maximum reflectivity and precipitable water diagnostic studies depict that both the models show asymmetricity at the peak intensity of ESCS. The rainfall during the landfall day from both the models is comparable with the gauge-satellite merged observed rainfall datasets. Along with TC track, intensity, and structural forecasts associated with storm surge at different vulnerable coastal cities are attempted to predict with reasonable accuracy.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the India Meteorological Department (IMD) New Delhi for providing the best track and intensity information to validate the model results. The authors also acknowledge the support and help in providing the TC position information in the real-time basis by IMD. The authors greatly acknowledge collaboration with Hurricane Research Division (HRD), AOML/NOAA for collaborative research on the HWRF modeling system. The DTC, NCAR is acknowledged for availing the WRF-ARW model in its public domain. The NCEP is acknowledged for providing GFS analysis and forecast fields on real-time basis. SM acknowledges DST-INSPIRE for providing financial support to carry out the work. The authors acknowledge the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) and Indo-US Forum for partial financial grant. The authors also acknowledge the anonymous reviewers for their help in improving the quality of the manuscript. Funding was provided Department of Science and Technology (Grant no. IF150814).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Earth, Ocean, and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Arugul, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India

    Shyama Mohanty, Raghu Nadimpalli, U. C. Mohanty & S. Sil

  2. India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India

    M. Mohapatra, A. Sharma & Ananda K. Das

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  1. Shyama Mohanty
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  2. Raghu Nadimpalli
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Correspondence to Raghu Nadimpalli.

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Mohanty, S., Nadimpalli, R., Mohanty, U.C. et al. Quasi-operational forecast guidance of extremely severe cyclonic storm Fani over the Bay of Bengal using high-resolution mesoscale models. Meteorol Atmos Phys 133, 331–348 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00751-4

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