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Modeling and forecasting rainfall patterns of southwest monsoons in North–East India as a SARIMA process

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Abstract

Weather forecasting is an important issue in the field of meteorology all over the world. The pattern and amount of rainfall are the essential factors that affect agricultural systems. India experiences the precious Southwest monsoon season for four months from June to September. The present paper describes an empirical study for modeling and forecasting the time series of Southwest monsoon rainfall patterns in the North–East India. The Box-Jenkins Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methodology has been adopted for model identification, diagnostic checking and forecasting for this region. The study has shown that the SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)4 model is appropriate for analyzing and forecasting the future rainfall patterns. The Analysis of Means (ANOM) is a useful alternative to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) for comparing the group of treatments to study the variations and critical comparisons of rainfall patterns in different months of the season.

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Correspondence to K. V. Narasimha Murthy.

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Responsible Editor: M. Kaplan.

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Narasimha Murthy, K.V., Saravana, R. & Vijaya Kumar, K. Modeling and forecasting rainfall patterns of southwest monsoons in North–East India as a SARIMA process. Meteorol Atmos Phys 130, 99–106 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-017-0504-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-017-0504-2

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