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Prediction of daily modes of South Asian monsoon variability and its association with Indian and Pacific Ocean SST in the NCEP CFS V2

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Abstract

The prediction capability of daily modes of variability for South Asian monsoon from climate forecast system version 2 of national centers for environmental prediction with respect to observed precipitation has been assessed. The space–time structure of the daily modes for summer monsoon rainfall has been identified by using multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA). The MSSA is applied on daily anomalies of rainfall data over the South Asian monsoon region (40°E–160°E, 30°S–35°N) for the period of 2001–2013 with a lag window of 61 days for June–July–August–September season. The broad spectrum around 45 and 50 days was obtained from the observed and model data during the time domain of our study. The space–time structure of the modes obtained from the model shows good resemblance with respect to the observation. The observed northeastward propagation of oscillatory mode is well simulated by the model. The significant improvement in the space–time structure, period of oscillation, and propagation of oscillatory modes was found in the model. The observed connectivity of oscillatory and persisting modes with the sea surface temperature of Indian and Pacific Ocean has also been investigated and it was found that the model is able to predict it reasonably well.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune for financial support under National Monsoon Mission Project No. MM/SERP/Univ-Allahabad/2013/IND-6/002. TMI data are produced by Remote Sensing Systems and sponsored by the NASA Earth Science MEaSUREs DISCOVER Project and are available at http://www.remss.com. The authors would also like to thank A. K. Sahai and S. Abhilash of IITM, Pune for providing the NCEP CFSv2 data. SR would like to thank V. Krishnamurthy of IGES/COLA, USA for scientific discussion related to MSSA.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, UP, 211002, India

    Namendra Kumar Shahi, Shailendra Rai & D. K. Pandey

  2. M. N. Saha Centre of Space Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, UP, India

    Shailendra Rai

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  1. Namendra Kumar Shahi
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Correspondence to Shailendra Rai.

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Responsible editor: L. Gimeno.

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Shahi, N.K., Rai, S. & Pandey, D.K. Prediction of daily modes of South Asian monsoon variability and its association with Indian and Pacific Ocean SST in the NCEP CFS V2. Meteorol Atmos Phys 128, 131–142 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-015-0404-2

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