Comparison of ensemble methods for summer-time numerical weather prediction over East Asia
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Summer-time short- to medium-range predictability of precipitation, 500-hPa geopotential height, and wind fields over East Asia are investigated by comparing three ensemble forecast configurations: multi-analysis, multi-convection, and multi-model. These three systems are used in this study in order to assess initial condition uncertainties, model uncertainties, and a combination of initial condition and model uncertainties in an ensemble forecast approach. Each system has a set of six members. Ensemble forecast skill is verified in both deterministic and probabilistic senses using the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting analyses and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager 2A12 rain estimates. The multi-model configuration, which considers both the initial condition and model uncertainties to predict weather phenomena over East Asia, is an optimal set of ensemble members. The bias-corrected ensemble and the superensemble (SE) show similar predictability, but slightly better skill is obtained from the SE forecasts.
KeywordsEnsemble Member Numerical Weather Prediction Ensemble Forecast Ensemble Prediction System Brier Skill Score
This work was funded by Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant CATER (Center for Atmospheric Sciences and Earthquake Research) 2010-75.
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