Summary
One of the main objectives of numerical weather prediction models is reliable forecasting of heavy rain events. This paper discusses problems and strategies of evaluation of daily rain forecasting with operationally available rain station data. The focus is on spatial upscaling of rain station data to the grid of the direct model output. We show limitations of regression – or smoothing – based upscaling like as done, for example, by Kriging analysis and promote probabilistic upscaling by ensembles of stochastic simulations conditioned to the available observations. These ensembles easily provide uncertainties of daily evaluation and unbiased estimates for second moment comparison statistics.
As an evaluation exercise we assess the quality of daily forecasts for Austria (total area: 84,000 km2) with the limited-area model ALADIN (horizontal grid-spacing 10 km). A quasi–operational set-up is compared to a physically enhanced but less well tested and tuned set-up. It is shown that the evaluation uncertainty is large, but with a full year of forecasts available it is possible to conclude that the physically enhanced set-up simulates too much rain and significantly more than the operational version with only small differences in simulated patterns and variability.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
RF Adler C Kidd G Petty M Morissey HM Goodman (2001) ArticleTitleIntercomparison of global precipitation products: The Third Precipitation Intercomparison Project (PIP-3) Bull Amer Meteor Soc 82 1377–1396 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<1377:IOGPPT>2.3.CO;2
Ahrens B (2003a) Rainfall downscaling in an Alpine watershed applying a multiresolution approach. J Geophys Res 108 (DOI: 10.1029/2001JD001485)
B Ahrens (2003b) ArticleTitleEvaluation of precipitation forecasting with the limited area model ALADIN in an Alpine watershed Meteorol Z 12 245–255 Occurrence Handle10.1127/0941-2948/2003/0012-0245
B Ahrens (2006) ArticleTitleDistance in spatial interpolation of daily rain gauge data Hydrol Earth Sys Sci 10 197–208 Occurrence Handle10.5194/hess-10-197-2006
B Ahrens (2008) On evaluation of precipitation fields with rain station data J. Pilz (Eds) Interfacing Geostatstics and GIS Springer Wien
B Ahrens U Karstens B Rockel R Stuhlmann (1998) ArticleTitleOn the validation of the atmospheric model REMO with ISCCP data and precipitation measurements using simple statistics Meteorol Atmos Phys 68 127–142 Occurrence Handle10.1007/BF01030205
B Ahrens K Jasper J Gurtz (2003) ArticleTitleOn ALADIN precipitation modeling and validation in an Alpine watershed Ann Geophys 21 627–637
J Aldworth N Cressie (2003) ArticleTitlePrediction of nonlinear spatial functionals J Stat Plan Infer 112 3–41 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0378-3758(02)00321-X
RA Anthes (1983) ArticleTitleRegional models of the atmosphere in middle latitudes Mon Wea Rev 111 1306–1335 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1306:RMOTAI>2.0.CO;2
P Atkinson C Lloyd (1998) ArticleTitleMapping precipitation in Switzerland with ordinary and indicator Kriging J Geogr Inform Dec Anal 2 65–76
A Beck B Ahrens (2004) ArticleTitleMultiresolution evaluation of precipitation forecasts over the European Alps Meteorol Z 13 55–62 Occurrence Handle10.1127/0941-2948/2004/0013-0055
A Beck B Ahrens K Stadlbacher (2004) ArticleTitleImpact of nesting strategies on precipitation forecasting in dynamical downscaling of reanalysis data Geophys Res Lett 31 5 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2004GL020115
R Benoit C Schär P Binder S Chamberland HC Davies M Desgagné C Girard C Keil N Kouwen D Lüthi D Maric E Müller P Pellerin J Schmidli F Schubiger C Schwierz M Sprenger A Walser S Willemse W Yu E Zala (2002) ArticleTitleThe real-time ultrafinescale forecast support during the special observing period of the MAP Bull Amer Meteor Soc 83 85–109 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0085:TRTUFS>2.3.CO;2
R Bubnova G Hello P Bernard J-F Geleyn (1995) ArticleTitleIntegration of the fully elastic equations cast in the hydrostatic pressure terrain-following coordinate in the framework of the ARPEGE/Aladin NWP system Mon Wea Rev 123 515–535 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<0515:IOTFEE>2.0.CO;2
T Cherubini A Ghelli L Francois (2002) ArticleTitleVerification of precipitation forecasts over the Alpine region using a high-density observing network Wea Forecast 17 238–249 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0238:VOPFOT>2.0.CO;2
J-P Chilès (1999) Geostatistics: modeling spatial uncertainty Wiley New York
G Ciach M Morrissey WF Krajewski (2000) ArticleTitleConditional bias in radar rainfall estimation J Appl Meteorol 39 1941–1946 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0450(2000)039<1941:CBIRRE>2.0.CO;2
N Cressie (1993) Statistics for spatial data EditionNumberrevised edition Wiley NY
J Creutin C Obled (1982) ArticleTitleObjective analyses and mapping techniques for rainfall fields: an objective comparison Water Resour Res 18 413–431 Occurrence Handle10.1029/WR018i002p00413
C Daly R Neilson D Phillips (1994) ArticleTitleA statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain J Appl Meteorol 33 140–158 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033<0140:ASTMFM>2.0.CO;2
B Efron RJ Tibshirani (1993) An introduction to the bootstrap Chapman & Hall New York
R Ferretti T Paolucci W Zheng G Visconti P Bonelli (2000) ArticleTitleAnalyses of the precipitation pattern in the Alpine region using different cumulus convection parameterizations J Appl Meteorol 39 182–200 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0450(2000)039<0182:AOTPPO>2.0.CO;2
C Frei E Häller (2001) ArticleTitleMesoscale precipitation analysis from MAP SOP rain-gauge data MAP Newsl 15 257–260
C Frei C Schär (1998) ArticleTitleA precipitation climatology of the Alps from high-resolution rain-gauge observations Int J Climatol 18 873–900 Occurrence Handle10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19980630)18:8<873::AID-JOC255>3.0.CO;2-9
C Frei J Christensen M Déqué D Jacob P Vidale (2003) ArticleTitleDaily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps J Geophys Res 108 4124–4142 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2002JD002287
J Geleyn A Hollingsworth (1979) ArticleTitleAn economical analytical method for the computation of the interaction between scattering and line absorption of radiation Contrib Atmos Phys 52 1–16
Goovaerts P (1999) Performance comparison of geostatistical algorithms for incorporating elevation into the mapping of precipitation, http://www.geocomputation.org/1999/023/gc_023.htm
LD Grasso (2000) ArticleTitleThe differentiation between grid spacing and resolution and their application to numerical modeling Bull Amer Meteor Soc 81 579–580 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0579:CAA>2.3.CO;2
M Johnson (1987) Multivariate statistical simulation Wiley New York
A Journel (1974) ArticleTitleGeostatistics for conditional simulation of ore bodies Econ Geol 69 673–687 Occurrence Handle10.2113/gsecongeo.69.5.673
J Maurer (1929) ArticleTitleDie Niederschlagsverteilung im schweizerischen Hochgebirge Beiträge zur Physik der freien Atmosphäre 15 102–106
J-J Morcrette (1991) ArticleTitleRadiation and cloud radiative properties in the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Forecasting System J Geophys Res 96 9121–9132 Occurrence Handle10.1029/89JD01597
A Murphy R Winkler (1987) ArticleTitleA general framework for forecast verification Mon Wea Rev 115 1330–1338 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1330:AGFFFV>2.0.CO;2
E Pebesma (2004) ArticleTitleMultivariable geostatistics in S: the gstat package Comp Geosci 30 683–691 Occurrence Handle10.1016/j.cageo.2004.03.012
F Rubel M Hantel (1999) ArticleTitleCorrection of daily rain gauge measurements in the Baltic Sea drainage basin Nord Hydrol 30 191–208
F Rubel M Hantel (2001) ArticleTitleBALTEX 1/6-degree daily precipitation climatology 1996–1998 Meteorol Atmos Phys 77 155–166 Occurrence Handle10.1007/s007030170024
C Schär (2001) ArticleTitleAlpine numerical weather prediction 2000–2020: a look back to the future MAP Newsl 14 6–12
C Schär D Lüthi U Beyerle (1999) ArticleTitleThe soil-precipitation feedback: a process study with a regional climate model J Climate 12 722–741 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0722:TSPFAP>2.0.CO;2
B Sevruk (1997) ArticleTitleRegional dependency of precipitation-altitude relationship in the Swiss Alps Climatic Change 36 355–369 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1005302626066
R Smith (2003) ArticleTitleA linear upslope-time-delay model for orographic precipitation J Hydrol 282 2–9 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00248-8
B Tustison D Harris E Foufoula-Georgiou (2001) ArticleTitleScale issues in verification of precipitation forecasts J Geophys Res 106 11775–11784 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2001JD900066
Uppala S, Kallberg P, Simmons A, Andrae U, da Costa Bechtold V, Fiorino M, Gibson J, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly G, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan R, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda M, Beljaars A, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Chevallier F, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, Hólm E, Hoskins B, Isaksen L, Janssen P, Jenne R, McNally A, Mahfouf J-F, Morcrette J-J, Rayner N, Saunders R, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth K, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J (2005) The ERA-40 reanalysis. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc (submitted)
Vidale P, Lüthi D, Frei C, Seneviratne S, Schär C (2003) Predictability and uncertainty in a regional climate model. J Geophys Res 108 (DOI: 10.1029/2002JD002810)
E Waymire V Gupta I Rodriguez-Iturbe (1984) ArticleTitleA spectral theory of rainfall intensity at the meso-β scale Water Resour Res 20 1453–1465 Occurrence Handle10.1029/WR020i010p01453
D Wilks (1995) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences SeriesTitleInternational Geophysics Series NumberInSeries58 Academic Press San Diego
Wilson C (2001) Review of current methods and tools for verification of numerical forecasts of precipitation, COST717–Working Group Report WDF_02_200109_1, available at http://www.smhi.se/cost717/
D Yang D Kane Z Zhang D Legates B Goodison (2005) ArticleTitleBias corrections of long-term (1973–2004) daily precipitation data over the northern regions Geophys Res Lett 32 IssueID19 L19501 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2005GL024057
C Young B Nelson A Bradley J Smith C Peters-Lidard A Kruger M Baeck (1999) ArticleTitleAn evaluation of NEXRAD precipitation estimates in complex terrain J Geophys Res 104 19691–19703 Occurrence Handle10.1029/1999JD900123
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Corresponding author’s address: B. Ahrens, Institut für Atmosphäre und Umwelt, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt, Altenhöferallee 1, 60438 Frankfurt a.M., Germany
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ahrens, B., Beck, A. On upscaling of rain-gauge data for evaluating numerical weather forecasts. Meteorol Atmos Phys 99, 155–167 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-007-0261-8
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-007-0261-8