Abstract
Introduction
Emerging evidence suggests that HbA1c variability, in addition to HbA1c itself, can be used as a predictor for mortality. The present study aims to examine the predictive power of mean HbA1c and HbA1c variability measures for diabetic complications as well as mortality.
Methods
The retrospective observational study analyzed diabetic patients who were prescribed insulin at outpatient clinics of the Prince of Wales Hospital and Shatin Hospital, Hong Kong, from 1 January to 31 December, 2009. Standard deviation (SD), root mean square (RMS), and coefficient of variation were used as measures of HbA1c variability. The primary outcomes were all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Secondary outcomes were diabetes-related complications.
Results
The study cohort consists of 3424 patients, including 3137 patients with at least three HbA1c measurements. The low mean HbA1c subgroup had significantly shorter time-to-death for all-cause mortality (P < 0.001) but not cardiovascular mortality (P = 0.920). The high Hba1c subgroup showed shorter time-to-death for all-cause (P < 0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (P < 0.001). Mean Hba1c and Hba1c variability predicted all-cause as well as cardiovascular-specific mortality. In terms of secondary outcomes, mean HbA1c and HbA1c variability significantly predicted diabetic ketoacidosis/hyperosmolar hyperglycemic state/diabetic coma, neurological, ophthalmological, and renal complications. A significant association between dichotomized HbA1c variability and hypoglycemia frequency was found (P < 0.0001).
Conclusion
High HbA1c variability is associated with increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, as well as diabetic complications. The association between hypoglycemic frequency, HbA1c variability, and mortality suggests that intermittent hypoglycemia resulting in poorer outcomes in diabetic patients.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Saeedi P, Petersohn I, Salpea P et al (2019) Global and regional diabetes prevalence estimates for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045: results from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, 9(th) edition. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 157:107843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2019.107843
King P, Peacock I, Donnelly R (1999) The UK prospective diabetes study (UKPDS): clinical and therapeutic implications for type 2 diabetes. Br J Clin Pharmacol 48(5):643–648. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2125.1999.00092.x
Heller SR, Group AC (2009) A summary of the advance trial. Diabetes Care 32(Suppl 2):S357–S361. https://doi.org/10.2337/dc09-S339
Huang ES, Davis AM (2015) Glycemic control in older adults with diabetes mellitus. JAMA 314(14):1509–1510. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2015.8345
Buse JB, Bigger JT et al (2007) Action to control cardiovascular risk in diabetes (ACCORD) trial: design and methods. Am J Cardiol. 99(12A):21i–33i. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amjcard.2007.03.003
Currie CJ, Peters JR, Tynan A et al (2010) Survival as a function of HbA(1c) in people with type 2 diabetes: a retrospective cohort study. Lancet 375(9713):481–489. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61969-3
Anyanwagu U, Mamza J, Donnelly R, Idris I (2019) Relationship between HbA1c and all-cause mortality in older patients with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes: results of a large UK cohort study. Age Ageing 48(2):235–240. https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afy178
Arnold LW, Wang Z (2014) The HbA1c and all-cause mortality relationship in patients with type 2 diabetes is J-shaped: a meta-analysis of observational studies. Rev Diabet Stud 11(2):138–152. https://doi.org/10.1900/RDS.2014.11.138
American Diabetes A (2020) 12. Older adults standards of medical care in diabetes-2020. Diabetes Care 43(Suppl 1):S152–S162. https://doi.org/10.2337/dc20-S012
Gorst C, Kwok CS, Aslam S et al (2015) Long-term glycemic variability and risk of adverse outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Diabetes Care 38(12):2354–2369. https://doi.org/10.2337/dc15-1188
Forbes A, Murrells T, Mulnier H, Sinclair AJ (2018) Mean HbA1c, HbA1c variability, and mortality in people with diabetes aged 70 years and older: a retrospective cohort study. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 6(6):476–486. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(18)30048-2
Li S, Nemeth I, Donnelly L, Hapca S, Zhou K, Pearson ER (2020) Visit-to-visit HbA1c variability is associated with cardiovascular disease and microvascular complications in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Diabetes Care 43(2):426–432. https://doi.org/10.2337/dc19-0823
Su JB, Zhao LH, Zhang XL et al (2018) HbA1c variability and diabetic peripheral neuropathy in type 2 diabetic patients. Cardiovasc Diabetol 17(1):47. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-018-0693-0
Luk AO, Ma RC, Lau ES et al (2013) Risk association of HbA1c variability with chronic kidney disease and cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes: prospective analysis of the Hong Kong diabetes registry. Diabetes Metab Res Rev 29(5):384–390. https://doi.org/10.1002/dmrr.2404
Waden J, Forsblom C, Thorn LM et al (2009) A1C variability predicts incident cardiovascular events, microalbuminuria, and overt diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 1 diabetes. Diabetes 58(11):2649–2655. https://doi.org/10.2337/db09-0693
Wright RJ, Frier BM (2008) Vascular disease and diabetes: is hypoglycaemia an aggravating factor? Diabetes Metab Res Rev 24(5):353–363. https://doi.org/10.1002/dmrr.865
Kahal H, Halama A, Aburima A et al (2020) Effect of induced hypoglycemia on inflammation and oxidative stress in type 2 diabetes and control subjects. Sci Rep 10(1):4750. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61531-z
Wang J, Alexanian A, Ying R et al (2012) Acute exposure to low glucose rapidly induces endothelial dysfunction and mitochondrial oxidative stress: role for AMP kinase. Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol 32(3):712–720. https://doi.org/10.1161/ATVBAHA.111.227389
Li CK, Xu Z, Ho J et al (2020) Association of NPAC score with survival after acute myocardial infarction. Atherosclerosis 301:30–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2020.03.004
Ju C, Lai RWC, Li KHC et al (2019) Comparative cardiovascular risk in users versus non-users of xanthine oxidase inhibitors and febuxostat versus allopurinol users. Rheumatology (Oxford). https://doi.org/10.1093/rheumatology/kez576
UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Group (1998) Effect of intensive blood-glucose control with metformin on complications in overweight patients with type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 34). Lancet 352(9131):854–865
Andersson C, van Gaal L, Caterson ID et al (2012) Relationship between HbA1c levels and risk of cardiovascular adverse outcomes and all-cause mortality in overweight and obese cardiovascular high-risk women and men with type 2 diabetes. Diabetologia 55(9):2348–2355. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-012-2584-3
Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes Study G, Gerstein HC, Miller ME et al (2008) Effects of intensive glucose lowering in type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med 358(24):2545–2559. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa0802743
Li W, Katzmarzyk PT, Horswell R, Wang Y, Johnson J, Hu G (2016) HbA1c and all-cause mortality risk among patients with type 2 diabetes. Int J Cardiol 202:490–496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcard.2015.09.070
Carson AP, Fox CS, McGuire DK et al (2010) Low hemoglobin A1c and risk of all-cause mortality among US adults without diabetes. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes 3(6):661–667. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.110.957936
Crane PK, Walker R, Hubbard RA et al (2013) Glucose levels and risk of dementia. N Engl J Med 369(6):540–548. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1215740
Rogers SC, Zhang X, Azhar G, Luo S, Wei JY (2013) Exposure to high or low glucose levels accelerates the appearance of markers of endothelial cell senescence and induces dysregulation of nitric oxide synthase. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 68(12):1469–1481. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glt033
Zaslavsky O, Walker RL, Crane PK, Gray SL, Larson EB (2016) Glucose levels and risk of frailty. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 71(9):1223–1229. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glw024
Gu J, Pan JA, Fan YQ, Zhang HL, Zhang JF, Wang CQ (2018) Prognostic impact of HbA1c variability on long-term outcomes in patients with heart failure and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Cardiovasc Diabetol 17(1):96. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-018-0739-3
Cheng D, Fei Y, Liu Y et al (2014) HbA1C variability and the risk of renal status progression in diabetes mellitus: a meta-analysis. PLoS ONE 9(12):e115509. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0115509
Monnier L, Mas E, Ginet C et al (2006) Activation of oxidative stress by acute glucose fluctuations compared with sustained chronic hyperglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes. JAMA 295(14):1681–1687. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.295.14.1681
Costantino S, Paneni F, Battista R et al (2017) Impact of glycemic variability on chromatin remodeling, oxidative stress, and endothelial dysfunction in patients with type 2 diabetes and with target HbA1c levels. Diabetes 66(9):2472–2482. https://doi.org/10.2337/db17-0294
Tse G, Lai ET, Tse V, Yeo JM (2016) Molecular and electrophysiological mechanisms underlying cardiac arrhythmogenesis in diabetes mellitus. J Diabetes Res 2016:2848759. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/2848759
Tse G, Yan BP, Chan YW, Tian XY, Huang Y (2016) Reactive oxygen species, endoplasmic reticulum stress and mitochondrial dysfunction: the link with cardiac arrhythmogenesis. Front Physiol 7:313. https://doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2016.00313
Skriver MV, Sandbaek A, Kristensen JK, Stovring H (2015) Relationship of HbA1c variability, absolute changes in HbA1c, and all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes: a Danish population-based prospective observational study. BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care 3(1):e000060. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjdrc-2014-000060
Funding
None.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
None.
Ethical approval
This single-center retrospective observational study was approved by The Joint Chinese University of Hong Kong – New Territories East Cluster Clinical Research Ethics Committee.
Informed consent
Informed consent was waived by the Ethics Committee due to the retrospective, observational nature of the study.
Additional information
Managed By Massimo Porta.
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lee, S., Liu, T., Zhou, J. et al. Predictions of diabetes complications and mortality using hba1c variability: a 10-year observational cohort study. Acta Diabetol 58, 171–180 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00592-020-01605-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00592-020-01605-6